Monday, October 22, 2007

It's actually an infinite pie, if we let it be




I used the metaphor of the size of the niche that two people or cultures create as being a slice of pie, with the difference between the people or cultures corresponding to the angle at the point of the slice of pie.

In mathematical terms, that's an "inner product", and the inner product of two things "a" and "b" is written as or sometimes (a,b).

The value of this product computes to be |a||b|cos(theta) or the size of a times the size of b times the cosine of the angle between the two, usually called by the greek letter theta.

Those who remember some math from school may recall learning that the cosine function is trapped between zero and one and looks like the surface of a pond with waves, like this:


But, that is only a tiny special case. The cosine is really a squashed down version of something called an exponential, and the exponential can have an "argument" (or angle) that grows without limit and has values mathematicians call "complex".

Skip exactly what complex means, and just get that the implication of this is that the actual "inner product" of any "a" and "b" can be as large as you want it to be.

In other words, we don't really have to be operating in the realm where the best you can get out of two people working together is less than you'd get if they worked alone - we could be operating where two people can do anything.

The "pie" is limited only by our sluggish imagination.

If you think of ever larger slices of a pie, with the angle at the point increasing, we don't actually have to stop at one pie. The world is actually a helix, as the picture at the top, and if we open the angle up far enough we can go around the whole helix twice, and still have room to keep on going.

Wade

The picture at the top of this page, as the other one, are from this site:
http://www.pacifict.com/ComplexFunctions.html

Shining Star - Signs of Peace


There is a great collection of photos in Flickr by "Dale73", ( Dale Taylor) like the one above.
The caption for that one in Flickr is:
I work in a school with 314 children born in 16 different countries. Together with their parents they represent over 40 nations. They speak 20 different languages, follow more than 15 religions...they play and work side by side, appreciating they are different but the same...they don't see the differences as boundaries to who can be friends, they like (or dislike :) one another because of the fun they can have with each other, the sharing, the caring, the talking, the playing, regardless of colour, religion or race. They show us what the world could be....

Racism, prejudice, and unity in diversity worldwide


working together
Originally uploaded by tigerluxe


"Name a distinguishing feature — skin color, religion, nationality, language — and it’s likely that people here have suffered unjustly for it, either through the freelance hatred of citizens or as a matter of official government policy."

October 22, 2007
New York Times
Editorial (Excerpts)

Ain’t That America

Think of America’s greatest historical shames. Most have involved the singling out of groups of people for abuse. Name a distinguishing feature — skin color, religion, nationality, language — and it’s likely that people here have suffered unjustly for it, either through the freelance hatred of citizens or as a matter of official government policy.

We are heading down this road again. The country needs to have a working immigration policy, one that corresponds to economic realities and is based on good sense and fairness. But it doesn’t. It has federal inertia and a rising immigrant tide, and a national mood of frustration and anxiety that is slipping, as it has so many times before, into hatred and fear. Hostility for illegal immigrants falls disproportionately on an entire population of people, documented or not, who speak Spanish and are working-class or poor. By blinding the country to solutions, it has harmed us all.

The evidence can be seen in any state or town that has passed constitutionally dubious laws to deny undocumented immigrants the basics of living, like housing or the right to gather or to seek work. It’s in hot lines for citizens to turn in neighbors. It’s on talk radio and blogs. It’s on the campaign trail, where candidates are pressed to disown moderate positions. And it can be heard nearly every night on CNN, in the nativist drumming of Lou Dobbs, for whom immigration is an obsessive cause.

In New York, Gov. Eliot Spitzer has proposed allowing illegal immigrants to earn driver’s licenses. It is a good, practical idea, designed to replace anonymous drivers with registered competent ones. In show after show, Mr. Dobbs has trained his biggest guns on Mr. Spitzer, branding him with puerile epithets like “spoiled, rich-kid brat” and depicting his policy as some sort of sanctuary program for the 9/11 hijackers. Someday there may be a calm debate, in Albany and nationally, about immigrant drivers. But with Mr. Dobbs at the megaphone, for now there is only histrionics and outrage.

[ what might be done? ...]

C. Catch the few you can, and harass and frighten the rest. Treat the entire group as a de facto class of criminals, and disrupt or shout down anyone or any plan seen as abetting their evildoing.

And so here we are at C. It’s a policy that can’t work; it’s too small-bore, too petty, too narrow. And all the while it’s not working, it can only lead to the festering of hate. Americans are a practical and generous people, with a tolerant streak a mile wide. But there is a combustible strain of nativism in this country, and it takes only a handful of match tossers to ignite it.

The new demagogues are united in their zeal to uproot the illegal population. They do not discriminate between criminals and the much larger group of ambitious strivers. They champion misguided policies, like a mythically airtight border fence and a reckless campaign of home invasions. And they summon the worst of America’s past by treating a hidden group of vulnerable people as an enemy to be hated and vanquished, not as part of a problem to be managed.

Comment -

In economic hard times, it is all too common to focus on those getting the jobs that are left, not on those who set what policies in place that led to us having so few jobs in the first place. It's closer and easier to stereotype and rally around.

Historically, this has often led to hatred against precisely the latest group of people we just attracted and imported, or even "Shanghai-ed" and virtually enslaved, to do dirty work at low pay that no one else wanted to do. Many groups have held this spot - Jews, Catholics, Blacks, Irish, Chinese railroad workers in the mid 1800's, Italians (Sacco and Vanzetti), and currently it seems to be "Hispanic-surnamed" that have become the focus of hatred and blame for economic hard times and pain and frustration and job losses that they had nothing to do with creating.

It seems it's not enough that they are subjected to working conditions in migrant labor or meat-packing that are nightmares, (Like Upton Sinclair's The Jungle) but then we have to get angry at them for having taken on such work in the first place and done it for us and in our name.

I think the actual causal loop that slowly deepens is this: first some random group of powerless people is exploited, then we can't live with ourselves and the fact of our being exploiters of decent human beings, so we solve that by "dehumanizing" the group we're currently exploiting which lessens the pain and justifies the sub-minimum wage, which makes them easier to exploit if not actually "deserving" of being exploited to "get even" with them for some never-named crime.

It is a feedback loop where our own guilt and actions lead to beliefs which lead to actions in a downward spiral - driven by a mistaken attempt of our own minds to reduce the conflict between our actions and our self-image as being "good decent people" who would never harm innocent people.

A generation later we snap out of this hypnotic trance, and can't figure out why we thought that particular group of people were "bad" when it now is obvious they aren't ... it's this OTHER group of people who are now "obviously bad."

So a few cases of "bad people" are magnified and echoed by TV and media until we think these represent the norm, and that all "those people" are "that way" - whatever it is this time. It seems to take a generation or longer to undo the damage caused by these successive waves of hatred-as-national-policy - a sort of "genocide-lite".

But so long as attention focuses on some target of choice, it distracts us from getting back upstream to the root-cause problem, and fixing it. We should be asking "Why are there so few jobs left?" and one that is so common we don't even ask it "Why do I and my wife have to work three or four jobs when my grandparents could make do and get by on just one?"

Put another way - "Why is my life going downhill when the TV says things are getting better? Who can I blame for this? It must be someone's fault!"

Well, it's not the fault of other people who are in the same boat as you, for starters.

There are two larger forces at work here. First, a basic law of economics or pressure of any kind - in an open world, "real wages" will tend to even out around the globe. It it is as easy to order a widget to be made in Thailand as next door, and they charge much less abroad, money will flow to Thailand, raising their average wage and standard of living, and lowering ours. That's huge and dominates what's going on around us and has been going on for the past 50 years.

Globalization and arrangements like NAFTA may speed it up, but it will happen regardless, one way or another. The pressure just finds some way to leak out and equalize.

So one fact of life we can count on is that Asian standards of living will go up, and our own standards of living in the USA will go down, regardless what policies we follow, unless we figure out how to make the "pie keep growing." Lately, this shows up as wages and bank accounts grow by 2 percent a year, and the global purchasing value of the dollar falls by 8 percent a year - we earn slightly more, viewed locally, but it and our pension savings are all worth a lot less so we can afford to buy fewer things for even more money.

The only escape clause is if we can make the "pie keep growing." We'll get back to that.

A second fact of life is that the very rich are more or less addicted to the "pie growing" life and tend to make sure that their total income continues growing.

In the US then this produces a whipsaw effect, as the rich have to extract even more and more wealth from the poor in order to keep their own income rising in a falling world. So not only is there less and less real wealth to go around, but most of us get a smaller and smaller share of it to keep. Again, it is not likely that any human force will change that trend.

A third and scary trend is that the very rich see the USA in decline and are moving their bases of operations off the sinking ship, and moving their headquarters offshore to someplace like Dubai, as Halliburton did recently. Since much of the world has rising standards of living, there are some pretty nice places out there now, with way more open space and better and cheaper health care than the US can provide.

The effect of that is equivalent to the rich pulling their kids out of public schools - which then lose the students, the income, and the influential parents caring what happens to the schools, and leads to yet another downward spiral of schools getting worse and more rich parents pulling their kids out and sending them to private schools.

All three of these changes are "structural" not "cyclic" - which means the past is not a good guide to the future, and these changes will just keep on going, not reverse and return to some mythic equilibrium if we just wait long enough.

In short, the dismal picture is that, unless the pie can be made to grow, the average person in the USA will lose on all three fronts - falling in health, education, and welfare, let alone their paycheck and job quality. We can't ever cure this by shutting some group out with immigration policy, because these changes aren't due to something that immigrants do or did.

In fact, it is the immigrant populations that tend to keep revitalizing the nation and providing the new growth that finds the one way out - new growth of innovative new approaches and industries.

As I've discussed in numerous other posts, the real hope is in "synergy" or the unlimited upward power of collaboration. It is precisely in the niche-space created between our own culture and other cultures, interacting creatively, that new life and new growth and new hope are born and flow into this world.

Here's the problem. For that to happen, for creative power to exceed the normal power of decline and decay, we need to have the largest "angle" possible between our own culture and each other culture. If you think of an angle as the point of a piece of pie, the amount of pie goes up as the angle at the point goes up. More angle = more pie.

If we interact well with another culture, we want the largest angle (most pie) we can get, which means we want them to be as different from us as we can stand and still interact.

We need, in other words, "unity in diversity". If they are identical to us, the angle is about zero and the slice of pie will barely matter.

So, the only policy that will work in the scenario I just described is one where we are very open and specialize in finding and dealing creatively and cooperatively with as many diverse other cultures as we can, treasuring their difference from us as our joint asset, which it is.

The worst possible policy in that model would be to (a) shut our borders and cut down interactions with others, and (b) avoid dealing with people who are different, or try to make everyone the same as us.

Parochialism, inter-group hatred, conformity, and higher walls of isolation are the opposite of what we need to be doing as a national policy.

True wealth decays away, regardless, everywhere. It is a living thing. Some strategies regenerate new wealth faster than the decay rate, and those groups will grow. Building a wall around the US and cutting off the living interactions that generate new growth will not, and cannot possibly "sustain" our wealth -- those policies will simply guarantee that no new growth will occur and hasten our decline.

The statistics are plain to see. Other countries have passed the US and are pulling further and further ahead in health of their populations, in skill and knowledge, in industry of all kinds, etc.
The last thing we need now is to cut off our interaction and ability to learn from them.

One measure of health of a population is simply average height, which reflects how healthy, overall, our childhood was for us. Healthier people tend to be taller. This year the USA finally lost the place of tallest country, and the average Dutch males is now taller than the average US male by almost an inch. "Size doesn't matter" but the implications do.

We need to take down the barriers to embracing global unity in diversity, not put up new ones of hatred and fear, if we are going to start growing again economically.

I should comment that I don't support these ideas because the Baha'i Faith tells me to - I support the Baha'i faith because it has been preaching this "unity with diversity" message for over 150 years and I'm finally understanding why that is so important and how all the feedback loops and emergent system effects work together.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Why we don't need more water ( or energy supplies)

It turns out that finding more water is one of the worse thing that can happen to us-in-the-long-run -- what makes this a problem is that more water would be great for us-in-the-short-run.

Any environment has a natural limit or "carrying capacity". Growth of the population rises in a "S-shaped curve", slowly at first, then rapidly, then hits a limit near the carrying capacity. What happens then depends of whether we've altered or used up the environment in the meantime.

If the only thing that changed is us, then we can happily go on at that limit state. If we're using up the environment, the limit state will start dropping. If we're growing rapidly while using up the environment, we'll grow in a faster and faster rising exponential curve until it's all gone, and then the population will plummet like a stone to zero.

That's pretty much what we did with the Georges Banks, once the richest fishing spot in the world. It seemed an endless charge card, and we used it up, and now it's gone.

Recent article have describe what's going on with water worldwide. By finding more water, we raised the limit, and the population started surging -- but at the same time we're using up the water since we're way past a sustainable rate of use, so the inevitable result will be that a crash is coming.

In India, something like 20 years ago everyone discovered electric water pumps that could pull water up from the underground natural reservoir, the aquifer. Suddenly, they could grow more crops and support more people, so farms and people boomed, using up the aquifer at an increasing rate. Academics warned that this was going to crash, but no one paid much attention. Now, the water is running out, but there are way more people affected. The crash now will be much worse than it would have been if there were no water-pumps.

Similarly, the Western US and the Southeast around Atlanta have been growing rapidly while water supplies were dwindling. The change in climate has hastened the day of reckoning, to maybe Christmas of this year, when the water will run out for Atlanta. This never happened before, there, so no one really believed it could happen or prepared for it. They're talking about builiding plants to desalinate sea water now.

China is building huge pipelines to move water from the south to the north.

But, here's the thing. Finding more water won't help, in the long run - it will just make things worse on a global scale. It only moves the limit up a little and doesn't change the equations. It puts off the day of reckoning a little more, and makes it way worse when it comes. It's like being in debt and getting a new credit card, which is used to take on more debt.

Water, it is forgotten, has one primary purpose in life - it takes out the trash. More precisely, it moves our own trash "downstream" into someone else's yard. It doesn't actually make the trash "go away" entirely, just "out of sight, out of mind." So, the US dumps a huge amount of toxic chemicals into the rivers that feed the Mississippi, and they all concentrate near New Orleans, and kick the cancer rate way up there.

Say we had more clean water upstream, would that help? More flushing and less concentration so life is good, we might think. Wrong. Being humans, and short sighted, we, collectively, will go "ah, problem solved!" and do what? We'll build more factories and import or grow more people, until we run out of water again. Now the amount of waste going downstream is twice what it was before.

But it goes away then right? Well, it goes into the ocean. killing life there. There is a huge dead zone around the mouth of the Mississippi.

The more water we get, the faster re run this cycle, the more industry or crops or cattle we grow, the more waste we produce, the larger the ocean's dead zone gets.

If we keep this up, we will kill the entire ocean, in our lifetimes. Finding new ways to desalinate the ocean near the shore will increase the rate, and produce huge piles of concentrated waste next to the desalination plants that well will, well, take out and dump in the ocean of course. Far enough out that no one notices. We'll simply take it out ... "beyond the environment" as the next video clip describes.

Here's an Australian comedy teams take on what happens after the front fell off an oil tanker, dumping 20,000 tons of burning oil into the sea. This is too funny! Please pass it on!

http://video.stumbleupon.com/#p=wl5emy3je0


Unfortunately, the government official's thinking is widely shared. The older generations grew up when the Earth was "limitless", and can't get into their heads that times have changed. 6 billion people and globe-spanning industry is much bigger than 1 billion people and cottage industries.

So if we do discover "unlimited energy" (say in the Caspian area) and "free water" (due to desalination plants), then a few people will get very rich, we'll have 10 billion starving people instead of 5 billion, and the ocean will die entirely, if global warming doesn't get us first. That will lead to "conflict" over what's left, and a war that will make the survivors unhappy they got into that mess in the first place.

What we need to do instead is stop trying to put off confronting the issues and face them head on and deal with them. The strategy of putting things off at the cost of making them worse is just digging us deeper. They say, when in a hole, "stop digging".

Here's some basic principles to count on. The time to fix the roof is when it is not raining. The time to deal with this problem is now, not when it becomes so huge it is "unavoidable."

Because of the simple equations of growth, things will only go downhill from here, unless we cope with the basic issues and learn how to resolve conflicts and stop this endless trying to build up enough of everything to "dominate" everyone else and "win" the world as a prize. Competition on a small scale may have been helpful, but on the scale we're up to now, it's destructive.

There will never be an easier time to deal with this than right now. As the population and industrial base expands, the pressures and conflicts will simply get worse and worse, and it will be harder and harder to calm people down and have a rational discussion.

So, in the Toyota Way, instead of passing this problem on to our children, we need to stop here and "fix it." There is nothing we want, nothing anyone wants, at the end of the road of international competition for dominance. No one can win.

So, we need to start thinking of alternative ways to define our lives and the meaning of our industry. But we need to do it now.

Whole nations, like China and India and Indonesia are racing to go down the path the US has taken, while in the US the average person's life is probably harder now than it was in 1950. Back then only one person needed to work one job to support an entire household. Now both spouses work multiple jobs, are burned out, and the house may be foreclosed anyway.

How is that better? Why exactly would other nations want to be "more like us"? In some ways some people are way better off, but in some ways many people are worse off than people were two generations ago. The progress has been very expensive in human terms and not participated in by everyone. That matters a lot.

In the mean time, we seem to be trying to get to where the average billionaire will have $50 billion instead of $1 billion. I guess I don't really believe that happiness cannot be found at the $1 billion level. This is some kind of pathology that drives initially sane people past constructive commerce into an ever more desperate need that cannot ever be met to be, I guess, "number one" in a world that is like the magic dice, where there is no best, so no amount of money or power will ever succeed in finding it.

I just wish all the people who had a billion dollars already would just get together on their yachts and decide that was enough, it's time to do something different. Here's an idea - why don't we put the extra money into completing the planet as a planet-sized healthy and smart thing, and then we'll conquer space travel and faster-than-light travel easily, and then every billionaire can have an entire planet of their very own! Wouldn't that be more fun than just fighting over what's left of this shrinking planet, guys?


W.

1950 - American dream, black and white


1950
Originally uploaded by miss kristin g
This is what a lot of people hoped for.

What is ailing black America?

Blacks in America face a complex system problem where causes and effects have merged into self-reinforcing barriers, but sometimes we can see through the fog. Here's a letter to the New York times in regard to Bill Cosby's recent initiatives on what is ailing black American family.

To the Editor:

It is surprising to me that in the discussion of black fathers and children, there is no reference to the disappearance of decent working-class jobs in America.

As a teenager in the early 70s, I would often visit friends in Compton, Calif. At that time, the black fathers in Compton worked in factory jobs — Bethlehem Steel or Goodrich Tires. Compton was a black suburban town with two-parent families, nice lawns and fathers fixing their cars on the weekend.

Now, the factory jobs are gone, and Compton is drug-infested. It may be useful to say “get a good education and there’s an engineering job waiting for you in Silicon Valley,” but that socio-intellectual distance is enormous. To address the problems of the inner city, some kind of viable economic structure needs to exist to help fathers act like fathers.

Eric Lindemann
Boulder, Colo., Oct. 16, 2007

Christians, Jews, and Moslems kiss and make up


Two news items this week show that the time is right for figuring out why three branches of the same Abrahamic tree of faith are at each other's throats so much, and fixing that.

Scholars from Judaism, Christianity, and Islam got together and realized there was way more in common than in dispute between these faiths. They moved on to looking again at exactly why each one feels it has to be the "only" faith.

Here's the first item:

Call for Muslim-Christian Unity 'Very Encouraging', Says Vatican Interfaith Head

A top Vatican official in charge of relations with Islam said a recent letter from Muslim scholars to Pope Benedict XVI and other global Christian leaders is “very interesting” and “very encouraging.”

Sun, Oct. 14, 2007 Posted: 10:40:43 AM EST


A top Vatican official in charge of relations with Islam said a recent letter from Muslim scholars to Pope Benedict XVI and other global Christian leaders is “very interesting” and “very encouraging.”

"I would say that this represents a very encouraging sign because it shows that good will and dialogue are capable of overcoming prejudices," Cardinal Jean-Louis Tauran said Friday, according to The Associated Press.

The letter, entitled “A Common Word Between Us and You,” calls for peace and understanding between Islam and Christianity, claiming that if the two communities are not at peace “the world cannot be at peace.”

“Our common future is at stake,” it added. “The very survival of the world itself is perhaps at stake.”

The document has been hailed by many as unprecedented and historic as it includes the signatures of 138 Muslim clerics, scholars and intellectuals from all branches of Islam – Sunni and Shia, Salafi and Sufi, liberal and conservative. Among the signatories were no fewer than 19 current and former grand ayatollahs and grand muftis, noted Newsweek magazine.


Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, here's the second item"


From the Los Angeles Times

Scholars try to reconcile 'problematic' religious texts

Christian, Jewish and Muslim experts met this week to add context to passages that have been perceived as hostile toward other faiths.
By K. Connie Kang
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

October 20, 2007 (excerpts):

Speaking with mutual respect and sensitivity, prominent Christian, Jewish and Muslim scholars and clergy from around the country met in Los Angeles this week to "wrestle" with what one rabbi described as the "dark side" of the three faith traditions.

Experts cited "problematic" passages from the Hebrew Scripture, the New Testament and the Koran that assert the superiority of one belief system over others.

Firestone said that all monotheistic traditions are confronted with the problem of chosen-ness and that "we all need to work through this absolutely basic notion in each of our religious systems."

Rabbi Mark S. Diamond, executive vice president of the Board of Rabbis of Southern California, which co-sponsored the event with Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, Conn., said all people of faith need to "take ownership of their most difficult texts, wrestle with them -- not run away from them -- but confront them, where appropriate, set them in their proper historical context.

"After wrestling, I hope people can understand these texts in the appropriate contexts and realize that not all of them, but many of them, are bound by conditions of social milieu, of culture, of historical context."

In some instances, he continued, people of faith need to say to themselves, "This is part of my sacred tradition, but I reject it. I find this text offensive. It goes against my own morality, and it goes against what I believe God expects of me in the world today."

That calls for a great deal of theological introspection, education and courage, he said.

Called "Troubling Tradition: Wrestling With Problem Passages," the program at the Luxe Hotel in Bel-Air on Monday and Tuesday was the second in a series of four international conferences initiated by the Center for Christian-Jewish Understanding of Sacred Heart University.

"We want to foster serious theological and moral thinking about those aspects of our traditions . . . that are intolerant and delegitimizes the other and have been used by extremists to foster violence and hatred," said Rabbi Eugene Korn, executive director of the Center for Christian-Jewish Understanding. "It's absolutely critical now because of the increase in religious violence and extreme hostility."

The first conference was held last year in Connecticut. There will be conferences in Germany in 2008 and Jerusalem in 2009. The papers presented at the conferences will be published as a book and posted on the Internet.

Speakers at the Los Angeles conference also included Rabbi Elliott Dorff, rector and professor of philosophy at American Jewish University, and Richard J. Mouw, president of Fuller Theological Seminary.

Conservative Christian Ann Coulter's recent comment about Jews needing to be "perfected" by converting to Christianity was mentioned only in passing.

"Panelists and presenters chose not to dignify her remarks with a response," Diamond said.

Jerry D. Campbell, president of the Claremont School of Theology, summed up the event:

"God is challenging us to take the idea of troubling texts to the next level, to begin a new conversation across faiths and throughout the world, with the goal of realizing God's own hope that all God's creation may learn to live harmoniously together."

unity without diversity is bad for everyone


It's not the size, it's the lack of diversity -- the world financial markets show us the risks of unity without diversity, and the 366 point drop in the Dow Jones last friday is just a taste of it.

There is also a risk in perverting the language that is not mentioned, as the term "hedge" used to mean "to make safer with a contrary bet" whereas today it appears to mean "to make riskier by highly leveraging the same bet".

Of course, once upon a time, a "bank" was a conservative, responsible place that had long-term plans and stability, not a place with a fortune that could rise or fall, as one shocked European banker noted, with the federal funds rate changing by one point for one quarter.

Here's the highlights from an article today that touches those points.

One World Taking Risks Together
New York Times
by Nelson D. Schwartz
Oct 21, 2007

HUGE financial losses in the United States spark fears in Europe.... the Panic of 1907, which culminated exactly 100 years ago today.

But this time around, it may take much longer to repair the damage and restore confidence than it did a century ago. It’s not only that the sums are larger now...It’s also that the breadth and complexity of today’s global markets create risks so great that no group of business leaders — or even a single country — can control them.

It wasn’t supposed to work this way. Interconnected global markets should make the world economy more stable, according to traditional economic theory, with risk spread more widely and strength in one region offsetting weakness in another.

“In practice, we’re not seeing that happening,” says Richard Bookstaber, a veteran hedge fund manager and author of a new book, “A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds and the Perils of Financial Innovation.”

Although international financial links are nothing new, as the Panic of 1907 shows, what’s different now is how closely international markets are correlated with one another.

As markets become more linked, diversification doesn’t work as well.

As a result, Mr. Bookstaber argues that today’s global financial markets may actually be more risky than in the past. That’s because the same types of investors are taking on the risky bets and then simultaneously heading for the exits when trouble comes, even if they’re on opposite sides of the world.


Actually, there's nothing wrong with this aspect of traditional economic theory, only with how well people read the book. Statistics says that the overall risk will go down if the individual risks happen independently - which is to day, it's a truly diverse world, where knowing what's going on in place A doesn't tell you what's going on in place B. And that is true.
But if everyone uses exactly the same strategy, the power of diversity reduces to the leaf-in-the-wind behavior of one individual, just with everyone else along for the ride.
This is also why tyranny doesn't work, and cannot work as a governmental system for very long, or why we see the same risks in "Theory X" companies that may be huge but really are only slaves of a few guys at the top with a big magnifying glass.

Diversity is not what unity must overcome - it is what gives unity strength.

An ecology with a single kind of plant in it will collapse as soon as the first virus figures out where lunch is located. Any global world with a single kind of thinking is equally unstable. This is a basic law of nature and statistics and cannot be overcome by wishful thinking or by anyone who was "right in the past."

Including diverse cultures and people in the decision-making process is not "accommodation" -- it is recognizing a case where all of us are actually much wiser than some of us.

It also illustrates the need for actually educating people so that they actually understand basic concepts and don't simply try to echo mindlessly what others are doing. Without "independent investigation of the truth", the system breaks down.

Again, let me refer to the basic principles held and advocated by the Baha'i Faith, as a set of guidelines I urge everyone to investigate independently. These are the kinds of things we should be studying in school.

Whether it is "race unity" or "unity of religions" the "unity" the Baha'is advocate is not the false "unity" achieved if everyone comes around to my point of view - it is the true unity that emerges from everyone keeping their independence on all but those things we need to stop killing each other and talk like adults about common issues.

It involves submission to God, not to some different self-appointed leader, and just enough civilization to have a "learning culture" that doesn't rip itself to shreds over the fact that the world appears very different to different people and at different times.

Global domination or "conquest" by any one nation or culture or way of thinking is a recipe for disaster, as the financial markets are telling us over and over. We do not all want to be clones of any one approach. Those who dream of global conquest are chasing a phantom that only exists in dreams, because simplifying any system that much will cause it to collapse.

That's the key lesson that we need to understand. Systems require diversity for the magic to work. You can prove it with math and you can simulate it on computers. Or we can keep on watching what happens around us when we try to deny that natural law - about like trying to deny the law of gravity.

This is just critical at this stage in nation-state development, where huge countries are in the middle of preparing for a massive confrontation over who will "dominate" the world. No one can "dominate" the world without destroying it and imploding. We are gearing up on a fool's mission that cannot possibly succeed for anyone. There will be no winners of that fight.

The reason world conquest has failed in the past is not that it was incomplete, but that it tried to be too complete. It squeezed the life out of all it touched with a unity without diversity. It didn't work not because of some error in execution, but because the whole idea is fatally flawed. It's impossible. It can't ever work, regardless how brilliantly executed. We need to let go of it.

So here's the take-away lesson.

All the frequencies matter. There's no point in reading the "news" if you don't spend equal time reflecting on the "olds", or you'll end up with a false impression of what's going on, really. In fact, as the Times article begins, we should have learned more from exactly 100 years ago friday and what happened then. Most of what is around us is actually more "old" than "new".

I remember watching two experts play the board game "Go" one day. Every now and then what looked like a surprise move would take a whole army and change the board. When it was over I comment on how much the board changed from move to move. They both looked at me baffled and replied that the board hadn't changed by more than half a point in the last 100 moves. I just wasn't able to see what was really going on by looking at what was changing. I needed to stop looking at the "field" and look at the "ground" instead for a while.

In regards to world conquest? To quote the "Whopper" computer in the old movie "War Games" -- "Hmm. Curious game. The only way to win is not to play."

(photo credit: moto browniano on Flickr)

Saturday, October 20, 2007

No Backup, no plan for Atlanta Drought

Saturday, Oct. 20, 2007

No Backup Plan in Atlanta Drought

Excerpts:

Atlanta) — With the South in the grip of an epic drought and its largest city holding less than a 90-day supply of water, officials are scrambling to deal with the worst-case scenario: What if Atlanta's faucets really do go dry?

So far, no real backup exists. And there are no quick fixes among suggested solutions, which include piping water in from rivers in neighboring states, building more regional reservoirs, setting up a statewide recycling system or even desalinating water from the Atlantic Ocean.

"It's amazing that things have come to this," said Ray Wiedman, owner of an Atlanta landscaper business. "Everybody knew the growth was coming. We haven't had a plan for all the people coming here?"

Gov. Sonny Perdue seems to be pinning his hopes on a two-pronged approach: urging water conservation and reducing water flowing out of federally controlled lakes.

State officials warn that Lake Lanier, a 38,000-acre north Georgia reservoir that supplies more than 3 million residents with water, is already less than three months from depletion. Smaller reservoirs are dropping even lower, forcing local governments to consider rationing.

The Corps, which manages the water in the region, stresses there's no reason to think Atlanta will soon run out of water.

"We're so far away from that, nobody's doing a contingency plan," said Major Daren Payne, the deputy commander of the Corps' Mobile office. "Quite frankly, there's enough water left to last for months. We've got a serious drought, there's no doubt about it, anytime you deplete your entire storage pool and tap into the reserve."

Comment - It's hard to know how to comment on the idea, from a government bureaucrat, that 90 days isn't "soon". This is the government that has no Federal budget in place which was due 3 weeks ago and might come by Christmas?

I think I've argued before here that a "star" shaped communications and decision plan (for example, the nation's National Incident Management plan) is basically unworkable because there simply isn't enough bandwidth at the top to deal with a thousand new issues. They have their hands full with Iraq and the budget, overly-full apparently. How can anyone imagine that this bureaucracy could handle an actual emergency? They can declare martial law and change to no-bid contracts, and after that deal with a few "top" priorities. Everything else will be put on hold, waiting for a response from the top that will never come.










Smoking soars among urban black youth



"Even as antismoking campaigns have sharply reduced tobacco use in society at large, smoking has remained far more common among the poor of all races."

October 20, 2007
Baltimore Journal (in the NY Times)
The Smoking Scourge Among Urban Blacks
By ERIK ECKHOLM (excerpts)

BALTIMORE, Oct. 15 — Outside subways stops and bars in parts of this blighted city, slouching hustlers mutter “loosies, loosies” to passers-by, offering quick transactions, 50 cents a stick or three for a dollar.

Their illegal, if rarely prosecuted vocation: selling loose Newport cigarettes to those who do not have $4.50 to buy a pack.

In small corner markets, customers sometimes use code words like “bubble gum” or “napkins” to receive individual cigarettes wrapped in a napkin. Or they buy a flavored Black and Mild, the latest smoking craze here, from an opened five-pack.

Out-of-package sales are common in the poor areas of many cities, an adaptation to meager, erratic incomes and rising cigarette taxes. But researchers say they are just one facet of a high smoking rate among low-income urban blacks.

Even as antismoking campaigns have sharply reduced tobacco use in society at large, smoking has remained far more common among the poor of all races.

Still, officials here said they were surprised when a recent study suggested that more than half of poor, black young adults smoke cigarettes — almost always menthol, almost always Newports.

In the latest twist, the study also found that nearly one in four of them also smoke candy-flavored cigarillos, often inhaling despite the danger posed by higher tar and nicotine levels.

Alarmed by the findings, the city’s health commissioner, Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, on Monday convened health experts, community leaders and high school students to discuss the spreading use of Black and Milds, plastic-tipped cigarillos that come in flavors like wine, cream and apple and are often seen in hip-hop videos and the HBO series “The Wire,” which is set in Baltimore.

Amid violence and drug problems, smoking may seem a comparatively harmless vice. “But if you take a step back,” Dr. Sharfstein said, “it’s the smoking that will end up killing a lot of these kids, maybe not next week but well ahead of their time.”

In a stepped-up antismoking campaign, Baltimore officials are offering free nicotine patches or gum and are considering stronger measures to control sales of loosies, which are easily available to youngsters.

The whole issue here is that the social norms haven’t changed the way they have in most of society,” said Frances Stillman of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, co-author of the study of smoking habits among Baltimore’s poor, which was published in August in the American Journal of Public Health. “Everybody smokes, and everybody thinks it’s O.K.”

In this latest study, researchers interviewed 160 blacks ages 18 to 24 who were enrolled in job training. In the group, 60 percent smoked cigarettes and 24 percent had recently smoked cigarillos.

A survey of 1,021 low-income blacks in Detroit, published in 2005 in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, found that 59 percent of men and 41 percent of women smoked, a finding that “shocked everybody,” said the chief author, Jorge Delva of the University of Michigan School of Social Work.

It has long been known that smoking rates are higher among the poor and least educated of all races, but Mr. Delva and other experts said the rates recently found among inner city blacks were surprisingly high, possibly indicating that they were undercounted in broad standard surveys.

For a mix of cultural reasons as well as targeted marketing, menthol cigarettes are particularly favored by blacks: 75 percent of blacks nationwide smoke them, compared with less than 30 percent of whites.

In recent years, the promotion budgets of major cigarette companies have been disproportionately devoted to menthols, said Gregory N. Connolly, director of tobacco control research at the Harvard School of Public Health. “It appears the industry is targeting the most vulnerable groups through advertising and manipulation of menthol levels,” Mr. Connolly said.

A resident of the Montebello alleys, Antonio Stokes, 39, who was vague about how he made money, agreed. Of the Newport he bummed off a friend the other evening, he said: “It’s worse than crack. They should have a detox center for these things, too.”


Comment - one of the effects of menthol is to anesthetize the throat and lungs so they don't report the pain from the damage the smoke is doing. In many case the impact of "low nicotine" cigarettes is that the users smoke more of them, trying to get the same impact, and draw the smoke deeper into their lungs and hold it in longer. Biomedically, they tend to have their lung cancers deeper in their lungs
than those who don't smoke "light" and "safer" cigarettes.

But, whatever else it is, there is a perception problem here. The benefits of the cigarette in terms of a short-lived spiked high are immediate, and the costs are distant and out of sight, out of mind.

Individual humans, who don't have some way to learn from each other in larger organized groups, are about equivalent to parakeets in their inability to relate the actions and the results, in another place and time.

And, individual humans who don't tap into such groups might as well not have them. They will simply repeat one more time the mistakes that millions of others have made and are making, and not learn anything from each other, and never improve.

Perception, social connections, and enough humility to realize there are truths that are not "obvious" in the short-run -- these are the keys to getting out of this mess.
"Inability to listen" is not limited to certain groups, such as "people in authority." In fact, demolishing all authority destroys the ability to learn.

This is tangled by having two meanings of the same word "authority" - one is having a solid basis for conclusions, and the other is "being the one who gives the orders." In trying to rebel against the second, people tend to also toss out the first.

That doesn't make sense. Somewhere, someone knows stuff way better than you. That's a fact of life. It should be the first lesson in school in every grade - not to make people feel bad, but to try to make people willing to get together and pool wisdom before they go off and make dumb decisions that everyone (or anyone) could have told them not to make.

In downtown Baltimore or Detroit, the problem is worse, in that "everyone" in the vicinity believes the same mistaken thing. Studies and billboard counts show that Tobacco and Alcohol advertising and billboards are concentrated in urban poor areas, and it's hard to believe those companies don't know where their own signs are located and why.

I took Dr. Stillman's course in Tobacco Control at Johns Hopkins last year and it was truly eye-opening. Example" One tobacco company tried to open the market in an Eastern European country by pointing out that cigarettes tended to kill people early, so the country could save money on not having to cover retirement benefits for all those people. They had to back off when this was published in the newspaper.

Smoking will kill 5 million people a year, every year. (source: Harvard).
The world-trade center attack killed 3 thousand people, once.
Guess which one we've spent more time and money trying to prevent.


See Should the FDA Regulate Tobacco,
Kennedy will ask FDA to regulate smoking,
Short YouTube hysterical videos on smoking - (don't be drinking a soda while viewing these!)

Jay Leno on Saddam Hussein and the tobacco industry

Zyban - bad day (office monitor)

And remember to wash your hands!

How I learned to stop smoking (on the porch)

When that guy across from you asks "Do you mind if I smoke?"

Oh, you don't always die from tobacco (song )

================
resource:

World Health Organization webpage on the toll of smoking worldwide.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Should we ask Hugo Chavez for foreign aid?

If the shortage at food banks isn't enough, the New York Times reports today that "Government money short to help poor pay heating bills". Excerpts:


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 30 million low-income American households who will need help paying heating bills this winter from a U.S. government program will be left in the cold because of a lack of funding for the program.

The poor, already digging deep to pay for expensive gasoline, also will face much higher heating fuel costs, especially if oil prices stay near record levels.

The government's Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, known as LIHEAP, only has enough funding to cover 16 percent of the 38 million poor households eligible for the program.

The current $2.16 billion LIHEAP budget in only $300 million more than what the program had when it was created by Congress in 1981. Despite higher energy costs, the Bush administration has proposed cutting the program's budget.

The Energy Department forecasts that household expenses for all heating fuels will rise this winter from last year, with costs for heating oil up 22 percent, propane up 16 percent, natural gas up 10 percent and residential electric bills up 4 percent.

"If it is a typical winter, it's going to be a real struggle for these (poor) households. If it's colder than normal all bets are off," Fox said.

Heating bills will be even higher if the recent jump in U.S. crude oil prices sticks. Oil has soared more than $10 a barrel this month and topped a record $90 on Friday at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Remember 2005?

See "Chavez ships discounted heating oil to US Families"

At the end of November [2005] , 12 million gallons of discounted home-heating oil for 45,000 poor families and social-service organizations started rolling into Massachusetts from Venezuela. The Bronx also is receiving discounted heating oil under Chavez' program, and discussions are underway with other states that experience cold weather. Home heating oil costs are expected to rise 30 to 50 percent this winter - because of Big Oil's price gouging and restrictions on production, say critics. Despite record-breaking profits in 2005, all the major U.S. oil corporations reportedly refused to participate in similar programs.


I've watched this phenomena in upstate New York for 25 years and know what this means in practice. I don't know the exact numbers, but let's estimate that 1 in 10 of the families without heat rigs up some foolish heat source - an old kerosene lamp, a fire in the sink, a space heater that should have been discarded (or was) years ago. Of those, say 1 in 10 leaves the room unattended or with just children in it; Of those say 1 in 10 actually succeeds in dropping something flammable in the heater or tipping over the heater; of those say 1 in 10 starts a house fire; of those say 1 in 10 results in fatalities.

I'll do the math. How many will die from this policy? 30 million times (1/10) times (1/10) times (1/10) times (1/10) = 3000 lives. This lack of "funding", if those numbers are correct, will result in the same loss of life as the World Trade Center attack, fires, and building collapses on 9/11.

Somehow, the way humans perceive things, the 3000 lives lost in NYC are visible tous, but the 3000 people lost from not funding this heating subsidy is invisible. To those who die, there is no difference. To the families of those who die, there is little difference, and sometimes equal bitter anger.

But, it won't announce itself. You'll just see, here and there, on a regular basis, all winter, in every city in the north, headlines like "Horrified neighbors watch as mom tries to rescue 3 children in fire" and some details about how some makeshift space-heater was responsible.

IN public health we try to go upstream and, like Toyota, ask "Why?" five times.

Why did they die? The fire killed them.
Why was there a fire? Space heater caused it.
Why was there space heater? They couldn't afford to pay for heat.
Why couldn't afford to pay? Government inaction or indifference?
Just spent everything on food or medical costs?
No job.
Why no job? No jobs anywhere. "The economy" has tanked.
Why high cost of food and health care? Much debated.
Why was there government inaction? Because the voters tolerate it.

Why do the voters tolerate it?
Probably due to the number of levels that the consequences are removed from the actions that result in them, people actually don't see what's happening, or don't see it with enough clarity and confidence to change their behavior, given the other louder and more immediate problems they themselves have.
Possibly because they buy the argument that the children who die somehow deserve it for being poor.
Possibly because some human agency was in the middle of this causal chain they blame the parent or grand-parent for bad judgment -- possibly forgetting what their own judgment is like when cold and hungry and in pain and your kids or parents are getting sick and asking you why you can't do something to make it warmer.


Congress fiddles, and children will die. That's what will happen.
We just don't know which ones where and when, and no single incident can be clearly "blamed" on this chain of events, and we, as a society, outside of public health, don't have a way to pull together all these separate incidents and discover that there is a pattern here, a common thread and cause.

It's the same problem we have with smoking. Half of smokers will die of smoking-related diseases. Half. But we don't see it. It happens later, far away, out of sight, with too much in-between for our human eyes to relate the two.

spiritual solutions

“While our founders intended a separation of church and state, they never intended a separation of God and state,” said the U. S Senate Chaplain recently. “There is a spiritual dimension to who we are and what we are about.”

See U.S. Senate Chaplain urges Spiritual Solutions to Social Problems
The Flathead Beacon (Montana)
Oct 19, 2007
... goals for the summit, which aimed to bring faith groups and nonprofit groups together to tackle social problems. The two-day summit consists of a series of speakers and brainstorming “breakout sessions” on issues ranging from drug addiction to natural disaster response to homelessness.

Baucus then introduced the morning’s keynote speaker, U.S. Senate Chaplain Barry Clayton Black. ...

While our founders intended a separation of church and state, they never intended a separation of God and state,” Black said. “There is a spiritual dimension to who we are and what we are about.”

Black warned that historically great civilizations, like the Babylonians and Romans, “did not so much explode as implode.” He listed pointed similarities between the fall of the Roman empire and present day America, including a decline in religion, an erosion of family bonds, an obsession with frivolous sports and a government that devotes excessive amounts of revenue to the military and armaments.
...
But Black’s overall message was one of optimism that the summit could, through a spiritual perspective, brainstorm solutions to issues facing Montana.

Interesting. Here's what the Baha'i Faith's Official US webpage has to say:

Baha'is believe:

  • ...
  • work performed in the spirit of service is a form of worship
  • ...

Baha'is practice:

  • daily prayer and communion with God
  • high moral principles, including trustworthiness, chastity and honesty
  • independent investigation of truth
  • a life dedicated to the service of humanity
  • fellowship with the followers of all religions
  • avoidance of excessive materialism, partisan politics, backbiting, alcohol, drugs and gambling

Social principles include:

  • equality of women and men
  • the harmony of science and religion as two complementary systems of knowledge that must work together to advance the well being and progress of humanity
  • the elimination of prejudice
  • the establishment of a world commonwealth of nations
  • recognition of the common origin and fundamental unity of purpose of all religions
  • spiritual solutions to economic problems and the removal of economic barriers and restrictions
  • the abolition of extremes of poverty and wealth
  • the adoption of a world auxiliary language, a world script, and a uniform and universal system of currency and weights and measures


Thursday, October 18, 2007

The benefits of depression - on a social scale

Individual depression may have a benefit to the herd. If so, it may be hard-wired into our genes nd our social structures that reflect our genes as a preserved trait, and that changes how to treat it.

All organisms and organizations need immune systems to detect invaders or parts of themselves that have gone astray, so they can be marked for removal and eliminated.

In the body, one troublesome situation is that some cells or pathogens may get off into a corner, or inside a bone, or up against a steel plate, where they are hard to be evaluated and attacked, so they multiply. Another may be that they no longer recognize the authority of the body, and go off on their own doing something else. But, evolution has come up with one clever solution to this problem - namely, apoptosis or "cell suicide."

If a cell is removed from active, productive, working connection with the body, it is programmed to kill itself. It doesn't need to be found by the body's police force - it finds itself. No castle or moat or steel wall or bone can protect it, because the destruct system is already built in.

It may be than that evolution has similarly built in an "auto-braking" system into human physiology, so that, when a human becomes disconnected from productive interaction with the social body, the human slows to a stop and then shuts himself down.

This results in resources flowing primarily to social members still able to act energetically and confidently. Over time, those who care about interactions with the social body end up dominating the scene. (sources of "altruism"?).

But, what's that model say about treatment of depression?

First, it says that depression is a symptom, not a cause - and so treating depression with drugs to "cure it", while immediately helpful personally, from the social body's perspective is a bad idea -- in that it means that socially discordant individuals will continue to act badly and absorb energy and resources, and, if left unchecked in large scale, eventually the social body will die from a loss of cohesion and trying to carry the burden of all this non-productive tissue.

Second, it would mean that "depression" is not, in fact, a pathology - it is a very healthy normal response of a subsystem of the social body to a disconnection event. From a social point of view, it's good. In fact, the whole terrorist "problem" and the corruption "problem" could be viewed as precisely a breakdown in such a system: people who have turned against the social body should, many people would assert, self-destruct so we don't have to go to the very hard work of trying to destroy them ourselves. That would be very efficient if they'd just get really really depressed, then suicidal. It would be way more efficient than trying to locate them in caves somewhere on earth.

But, it brings to focus a different problem. If we use that model, then why is it that we now are looking at 20 or 30% of the US population that is depressed? And, have all these people broken the connection with the social body, or did the social body break the connection with them, or both in some sort of vicious circle? It may be that the cost of health care is rising because the body of the public is, in fact, becoming unwell. And, again, this may be a symptom not a cause, and masking it with drugs would be "quackery" - treating symptoms while the disease grows worse.

Well, the work of Robert Putnam ("Bowling Alone") and the Duke study (mentioned in myprior post on depression) would seem to indicate that connections are, in fact, deteriorating and rather rapidly. That begs the question of why this is happening, or how.

One possible hypothesis would be that the culture of materialism and self-centeredness, sustained and amplified by television, is causing people one by one to abandon their concern for society and become increasingly self-oriented, which is triggering the hard-wired fatigue and depression responses. The trend towards "Me first" or "Only me, forget you, Jack" is evident and widely discussed in the media.

Another possible hypothesis is that, collectively, whole groups of people, such as the rich or middle class, have turned their backs on and abandoned the poor, the 45 million without health coverage, the jobless, etc. This could cut both ways, both by making the ones cut-off from social life become increasingly depressed or anxious, and by making those who are doing the cutting-off also depressed, because they are losing the other end of the social connection.

In other words, class-ism and racism ultimately do as much harm to the holder of the destructive bigotry as to the group on the receiving end -- it just takes longer. That would predict that even some of the very rich - say Britney Spears or Paris Hilton, would end up extraordinarily unhappy. That's not proof, but it illustrates the point. Britney lost custody of her children to get what? Another drink?

There is a long literature on the harmful effects on the rich and powerful of exploiting, or neglecting the poor and the [apparently] powerless. By this herd model, the powerless actually have their own protection built into the DNA of the powerful, where it can and will be triggered as the powerful cut ties to the powerless.

This is certainly a core lesson of many religions of the world. "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you." The model seems to say that no "enforcement by an angry God" is necessary in fact - that the downstream result of the action of discrimination and superiority culture, both individually and overall, follows automatically from the action, and returns the favor, with interest.

So, if we boost the world, it will echo with amplification, and we will be boosted, and that becomes a self-climbing loop or spiral. If we cut off the links to the world, the world cuts off its links to us, which, surprisingly, we needed to continue to exist. If we actively exploit the outside world (think sub-prime mortgages) it will come back tremendously amplified and damage those who thought they could "get away with it."

This would imply that the same feedback mechanism and pattern might be true for cells, for individuals, for companies, and for entire nations or cultures.

For a company-sized organism, though, I've discussed the need for the "horizontal loop", the living feedback that Toyota calls "pull" that connects the company to the customers. Breaking this loop, as Comcast is described to be doing by many customers in today's Washington Post, may appear in the short run to be "working" and making more money than caring what customers think, but this model says that the resentment and social response is just building up steam and ultimately will come back with amplification.

It's a fairly simple model, but it seems to explain a lot of what we see going on around us. These "scale-invariant" patterns seem important to investigate to see if they hold up under more rigorous investigation. If so, we have some public policy and public health decisions we may want to rethink.

Religion and commerce (the Toyota Way) suggest the model, and system dynamics simulations show that some feedback with delay and amplification like this may be very hard to detect coming until it is too late. As with the Georges Bank model we ran in class, as the sustainable limit is passed and use turns into abuse, the fishing just seems to get better and better and the catch keeps rising as the fishermen build more boats until one day it is exhausted and it's simply over. We've depleted it entirely. The rising exponential plummets to zero.

There are almost no blatant clues this is happening. You have to understand what is going on to "see" it and realize it.

But it's up to Science now to take that suggested model and design careful experiments to test whether this is just an interesting analogy or the handle to some basic principle like gravity that we need to pay attention to. If the NIH or Business Roundtable won't fund it, maybe the John Templeton foundation will. Maybe a business "depression" bears more than a passing resemblance to a larger version of an individual "depresison."

Actually, MIT's John Sterman in his 1000 page textbook "Business Dynamics" lays out exactly how trying to push a company to grow too fast results in an apparent speed-up of profits, followed by a drop or crash, depending on exactly how it went. That implies that the villains of the corporate growth story are the stockholders themselves, from venture capitalists who demand 37% growth per year, to e-traders who chase the smallest fraction of a percent of a rate, punishing any CEO who pauses for breath or needed consolidation.

It also is a lesson for China, one that it is increasingly realizing, that growing too fast can be as much of a problem as not growing fast enough. Living things have natural growth rates, and we don't gain by trying to push them to do unnatural acts.

There's nothing wrong with wealth and prosperity, but vastly unequal and unjust accumulation of wealth by taking it instead of earning it does seem to lead to a "correction" that undoes all of the apparent progress and then some. Short-term greed is a very expensive pleasure, for it quickly becomes the long-run, and the bills come due. Without a deep keel, a culture and a social ethic that can hold off that temptation to maximize short-term gains, we can easily be led astray.

It's time to fund that research and let the data speak for itself. A reasonable search for counter-examples and contrary evidence is required. All models are wrong but some models are useful - so maybe this has merit regardless.

Science, religion, and business - three ways of seeing life

Science, religion, and business may capture three different ways of knowing about life. They seem to correspond to the "near field", "far field", and "intermediate field" properties of a radiating antenna.

What does that mean and how is it helpful?

This isn't a math lesson but one example may be useful, so here it is:


When physicists or engineers analyze electromagnetic waves radiating from an antenna, something unfamiliar appears: there are three different worlds, that tell different stories. The worlds appear initially to be in total conflict with each other, yet they can't be.

Very near the antenna, much closer than one wavelength of the signal, the radiated power appears to follow one law - it may clearly fall off as (1/r) where r is the radial distance away.
The measurements and math are quite clear and easy to do. The answer is clear.

Very far from the antenna, many wavelengths away, the radiated power clearly can be measured to fall off as (1/(r*r*r)) or 1 over r-cubed. The measurements and math are easy to do. The answer is clear. (but different from the one above).

And, in between, the equations are a mess, measurements are much harder to make sense of, and a third world applies, possibly the field varies as the inverse square of the distance.


What's the point? The point is that all three observers and measurements are "right", from their point of view.

These really do seem to have a lot of resemblance to the ways of knowing the world that are described by science, business, and religion respectively. Science tends to be very accurate and short-range, specializing is studying phenomena that can be studied "in isolation" - the core of the "scientific method". Religion tends to be very far-range, specializing in dealing with the biggest picture one can get - everything, with all the parts connected together, over all space and time.

And business tends to occupy the very messy place in the middle, often despised by both sides.
From science's viewpoint, business thinking is too messy and imprecise. It is "unclean." It deals with too much at once.

From religion's viewpoint, business is too down-to-earth and pragmatic and short-sighted. It is unclean. It deals with too little. Like "science" it is viewed as neglecting the very important human and non-quantitative factors that are critical.

So, this is the world into which "system thinking" and "system dynamics" really comes to play, trying to cross the gap from the "science" world where things can be studied separately, into the business world, where it seems everything happens at once and nothing can be known with certainty. It is a world where action is more important than study, where feedback from motion has more wisdom in it than any amount of analysis from a static point of view.

It is a world perhaps like the one birds occupy, where static vision may not be very good, but high-speed motion vision is astoundingly good, and they can fly through a tree of twigs at 40 miles per hour without hitting something. It's a different way of seeing.

And, one of the unspoken and perhaps unrealized terrors of systems thinking is that, by legitimizing the concept of looking "upwards", some legitimacy spills over into the concept of "religious studies" of the world - the perceived arch-enemy of science.

Like a rock-climber on a cliff face, the question is how to include a little more within one's grasp, without holding so little now that one slides off the cliff to one's death below. What's always worked before is the commandment and teaching to narrow one's view an focus, to cut down scope, to consider less. As one moves towards the intermediate field, the complexity rises as does opportunity for error.

This model does raise the new idea that the complexity doesn't rise forever - in fact, the complexity goes up, but then goes back down again, and, at a high enough level, the complexity gets back down to a manageable level. In physics, this happens in thermodynamics, when you stop looking at molecules and start looking at "a gas". The area inbetween is a mess. Single molecules are relatively easy to study, as are large-scale gases.

So, one issue for systems dynamics is how much more to include in the boundaries. It may be that "more is less", and that adding some additional factors make the model harder, but adding more and refactoring to a larger scale may make that complexity, legitimately, go away again.

Importance of social relationships

On the importance of relationships in the successful outcomes any kind of planning, but especially in health behaviors...this might be a fair additional summary:

1) For a human to sustain peak performance, it is not enough to engage the brain; we have to engage the heart.

2) We're very social animals, always watching each other for clues; to sustain a value, we need to see constant reaffirmation from others that it is still a value today.

3) We are each other's context, and have to pro-actively make an effort daily to give that reaffirmation of our shared values and positive feedback/encouragement for the right thing, not just criticism of the wrong thing.

4) Sustaining that shared spirit is what makes the daily pain tolerable; to paraphrase old wisdom: the spirit can survive any illness, but a broken spirit - who can bear?

5) The side-conversation of any "business" decision has to be a human conversation that says: "We share a goal, we share these values. I really like you. Now, what was it we were arguing over/deciding?"

6) If it doesn't have a spirit, create one; if it has a Spirit, treat that as if it were a living being, with its own "health" and "fitness," and make sure that there's a program to keep it healthy.

7) Beware of solutions based on technology or "systems" that neglect compassion. Compassion is the strongest suit there is, the strength to build on - "He ain't heavy, Father, he's my brother." The "caring" in "health care" is what makes it work. Not caring will kill any business model, cold. We don't build cars. We don't entertain. We care about people and do something about it. And that's what defines us and gets us up in the morning and holds us up 36 hours later.

8) Spiritual issues (above) have a dramatic impact on the bottom line, clinically and financially. I see this daily in software design and performance outcomes our IT shop produces, something that at first looks 100% technical.

A story is told of two stone-masons working on a huge church in Europe, one with great work and one with sloppy work that needed to be torn down and redone. When asked what they were doing, the poor one said: "I'm building a wall." The other said: "I'm building a cathedral." The spiritual issue matters so much it hurts, in ways science doesn't begin to grasp at the moment.

(I Previously published this elsewhere. It satisfies my rule that,
if it's worth saying, it's worth saying again.)

Wade

Depression and social factors


The USA seems to be the world leader in both incidence and prevalence of major depression, and if anything, the rate is increasing.

In an Op-ED piece in today's New York Times, "Our Great Depression", Andrew Solomon argues that "We need a network of depression centers, much like the cancer centers established in the 1970s." He says:

DEPRESSION is the leading cause of disability worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. It costs more in treatment and lost productivity than anything but heart disease. Suicide is the 11th most common cause of death in the United States, claiming 30,000 lives each year...

Following this model, the National Institute of Mental Health should coordinate and subsidize a national network of depression centers, ideally based at research universities with good hospitals and departments devoted to the subject.

The University of Michigan, host to the country’s first national depression center, which opened its doors last month, has been a pioneer in this regard. More than 135 experts on depression and bipolar disorder will collaborate there, about half of them psychiatrists. The center has a large clinical treatment program and a genetic database that will house samples from tens of thousands of depressed and bipolar patients. It is sponsoring social and biological research and pressing for policy initiatives related to mental illness.

And finally adds "(Full disclosure: my father is the chief executive of a pharmaceutical company that manufactures antidepressants.)" His facts may be correct, but he is not an unbiased observer. And, the U of Michigan depression center certainly supports Cognitive Behavioral Therapy as much it supports pharmaceutical "solutions," so it is not just a thinly-disguised retail outlet for the largest company in Ann Arbor, Pfizer.

Still, while it is clear that "psychosocial factors" such as depression, isolation, and social support have a dramatic predictive value on the outcomes of "medical" disorders, such as cardiovascular disease, it is less clear to what extent depression is itself largely predicted by, or in some causal loop with these other social factors.

(See "Depression, Isolation, Social Support, and Cardiovascular Disease in Older Adults" by Heather M. Arthur, Journal of Cardiovascular Nursing, Vob 21, No. 55, pp S2-S7 for some links into the literature on the former subject.)

A different viewpoint can be found in literature off the continent, that is less supported by the pharmaceutical industry. Here's an example from the National Medical Journal of India
2006 Jul-Aug;19(4):218-20.

The cultures of depression.

Jacob, KS

Department of Psychiatry, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632002, Tamil Nadu, India. ksjacob@cmcvellore.ac.in

Diverse frameworks, models and 'cultures' of depression have been postulated and promoted by psychiatrists, the pharmaceutical industry, general practitioners, primary care psychiatrists and the general population.

Psychiatrists and the pharmaceutical industry endorse the medical model while general practitioners and the public subscribe to social and psychological frameworks. [emphasis added]

These models are partial truths and should be viewed as complementary rather than competitive, some more valid in a specific context than others. The issues that need to be resolved include: (i) reexamination of the validity of the psychiatric diagnosis of depression in the primary care context; (ii) a review of the adequacy of a single label of depression to describe the diverse human context of distress; (iii) acknowledging the problems of using a symptom checklist in diagnosing depression; (iv) recognizing the need for psychosocial diagnostic formulations which clearly state the context, personality factors, acute and chronic stress and coping; (iv) highlighting the fact that antidepressant medication should be reserved for severe forms of distress; (v) re-emphasizing the need to manage stress and alter coping strategies in the treatment of people with such presentations; (vi) de-emphasizing medicalization of all forms of personal and social distress; (vii) focusing on other underlying causes of human misery including poverty, unmet needs and lack of rights. Clinically, there is a need to look beyond symptoms and explore personality, life events, situational difficulties and coping strategies in order to comprehensively evaluate the role of vulnerability, personality factors and stress in the causation of depression.


Possibly, however, we have simply run into the largest single reason to be considering systems thinking - namely, the occurrence of feedback in models of causation.

Standard statistical techniques are fine at dealing with open-loop causality, where A "causes" B, or B causes A, and there is a clearly defined start and end point. The General Linear Model covers that reasonably nicely.

But, as soon as you close that loop, so that A causes B which in turn causes A, that model breaks down. This behavior (a feedback loop) is very common in engineering, and no big deal, but it remains not only perplexing, but almost heretical in the epidemiological community. Even the mention of "psychosocial factors" for medical disorders causes tempers to flare and voices to be raised. The battles go on between arguments such as "bullets cause death" versus "guns cause death" versus "angry people who just happen to have guns at hand cause death" versus "bad economic and political situations cause massive unemployement and unhappiness and anger, which ultimately express themselves in gunshots which cause death."

Still, it seems a reasonable hypothesis to me that social factors, such as isolation and loneliness and lack of social support, result in depression; and, then that depression results in further actions or non-actions that increase isolation and lack of support; and, etc. in a mutually reinforcing feedback loop.

This is "hard to study" in the sense that people don't have desktop software that lets them compute such things as a "p-value" to distinguish whether they are being too credible, or not credible enough when looking at this possible causal loop to explain observational data.

The lack of such software is, of course, precisely the type of gap that the R21 research request for proposals I mentioned in earlier posts is designed to address. (I'm available to work on such a project if there are others also interested in a joint proposal.)

Why does this matter? It matters because it can completely change the interventions required to address the problem. If depression is largely an internal phenomenon, caused by genetics and bad wiring in the brain, that leads to one type of intervention - drugs and CBT. If depression is largely a social phenomenon, related to the well-documented collapse in social interaction documented by Putnam and the group at Duke, then personal intervention will simply deal with symptoms, and result in an ever growing prevalence of drug-dependent victims of social dysfunction - precisely the observation we find about the USA today.

In the latter case, what we need to address is why people are losing the ability to make friends, to keep friends, and to be a friend -- because it is that low-level breakdown that is emerging on a national scale as an epidemic of "depression."

=============
The Duke study is "Social Isolation in America: Changes in core discussion networks over two decades" by Miller McPherson, Lynn Smith-Lovin and Matthew E. Brashears, American Sociological Reviews , (2006), vol 71, June (p 353-375)

Putnam's famous book is Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community by Robert D. Putnam (New York , Simon and Schuster, 2000).
As that site says,

In a groundbreaking book based on vast new data, Putnam shows how we have become increasingly disconnected from family, friends, neighbors, and our democratic structures-- and how we may reconnect.

Putnam warns that our stock of social capital - the very fabric of our connections with each other, has plummeted, impoverishing our lives and communities. Putnam draws on evidence including nearly 500,000 interviews over the last quarter century to show that we sign fewer petitions, belong to fewer organizations that meet, know our neighbors less, meet with friends less frequently, and even socialize with our families less often. We're even bowling alone. More Americans are bowling than ever before, but they are not bowling in leagues. Putnam shows how changes in work, family structure, age, suburban life, television, computers, women's roles and other factors have contributed to this decline.


( originally published 11/16/06 on cscwteam.blogspot.com)

Solitude




If each step carries you further away,
you will never arrive at home.




[ originally posted 10/4/06 on cscwteam.blogspot.com ]

Science meets religion

Speakers at the National Press Club presented new initiatives by the Center for Inquire-Transnational, according to an article in [November 16,2006] Washington Post. I'll summarize the article here and go on below to comment on the philosophy.
Think Tank Will Promote Thinking
Advocates Want Science, Not Faith, at Core of Public Policy

By Marc Kaufman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 15, 2006; A19

Concerned that the voice of science and secularism is growing ever fainter in the White House, on Capitol Hill and in culture, a group of prominent scientists and advocates of strict church-state separation yesterday announced formation of a Washington think tank designed to promote "rationalism" as the basis of public policy.

The brainchild of Paul Kurtz, founder of the Center for Inquiry-Transnational, the small public policy office will lobby and sometimes litigate on behalf of science-based decision making and against religion in government affairs.

The announcement was accompanied by release of a "Declaration in Defense of Science and Secularism," which bemoans what signers say is a growing lack of understanding of the nature of scientific inquiry and the value of a rational approach to life.

"This disdain for science is aggravated by the excessive influence of religious doctrine on our public policies," the declaration says. "We cannot hope to convince those in other countries of the dangers of religious fundamentalism when religious fundamentalists influence our policies at home."

"Unfortunately, not only do too many well-meaning people base their conceptions of the universe on ancient books -- such as the Bible and the Koran -- rather than scientific inquiry, but politicians of all parties encourage and abet this scientific ignorance," reads the declaration, which was signed by, among others, three Nobel Prize winners.

Kurtz, ...said the methods of science,..., "are being challenged culturally in the United States today as never before."

Several speakers also had strong words for the media, ...

Lawrence M. Krauss, an author and theoretical physicist at Case Western Reserve University, said the scientific community has done a "poor job" of explaining its logic and benefits to the public....

The goals of the new group are to establish relationships with sympathetic legislators, provide experts to give testimony before Congress, speak publicly on issues when they are in the news, and submit friend-of-the-court briefs in Supreme Court cases involving science and religion. The Center for Inquiry-Transnational, a nonprofit organization, is funded by memberships.

=================
My analysis of that:

There are at least three hypotheses in contention in the policy arena:
1) All religion is bunk and should be replaced by science
2) All science is bunk and should be replaced by religion
3) Science and religion are compatible

The "Center for Inquiry - Transnational" seems to be firmly in position #1.

Position #2 is subdivided into incompatible parts by actually being
2) All science (and also your religion) is bunk and should be replaced by (my) religion.

Position #3 is also subdivided into two distinct cases
3a) -- Separate but equal: so long as religion stays in its place, and science stays in its place, and the two never meet in the middle, they are "compatible". A significant number of researchers and scientists are in this camp.
3b) -- ultimately compatible: there is only one reality which has multiple valid views, the "incompatibility" between religion and science is largely due to misunderstanding, and religion(s) and science need to be brought together and reworked into a new paradigm that embraces both.

Position #3 is certainly is my own working hypothesis and is the way I understand the Baha'i Faith as well. I present this here less as an advertisement and more to make the case that "religion" is perfectly capable of embracing multiple viewpoints and scientific principles, and does not automatically equate to "fanatic" or "closed-minded" or "intolerant."

We need to distinguish, as it were "the baby" and "the bathwater."

Baha'i Social principles include:

  • full equality between women and men in all departments of life and at every level of society.
  • harmony between science and religion as two complementary systems of knowledge that must work together to advance the well-being and progress of humanity.
  • the elimination of all forms of prejudice.
  • the establishment of a world commonwealth of nations.
  • recognition of the common origin and fundamental unity of purpose of all religions.
  • spiritual solutions to economic problems and the removal of economic barriers and restrictions.
  • the abolition of extremes of wealth and poverty.
One of the most insidious forms of prejudice is racism, about which the Baha'is stated position is:
Racism is the most challenging issue confronting America. A nation whose ancestry includes every people on earth, whose motto is E pluribus unum, whose ideals of freedom under law have inspired millions throughout the world, cannot continue to harbor prejudice against any racial or ethnic group without betraying itself.

The nature of "competing" versus "complementary" views

Let me bring this topic back to "systems thinking," the theme of this weblog. It is generally recognized in software systems analysis that most complex systems are larger than the human brain can comprehend in a single view or perspective.

Here's a quote from a current best practices technical textbook by Nick Rozanski and Eoin Woods, entitled Software Systems Architecture - Working with Stakeholders Using Viewpoints and Perspectives (Addison-Wesley, 2005) :

If you read the more recent literature on software architecture, one of the first useful discoveries you will make is the concept of an architectural view. An architectural view is a description of one aspect of a system's architecture and is an application of the timeless problem-solving principle of "divide and conquer." By considering a system's architecture through a number of distinct views, you can understand, define, and communicate a complex architecture in a partitioned fashion and thus avoid overwhelming your readers with it's overall complexity.... Using viewpoints and views to guide the architecture definition process is a core theme of this book.
Many people are working right now on the problems we've created for ourselves by partitioning the scientific viewpoint of the world into silos which may seldom speak with each other. A major axis along which such silo-building has occured is the scale of activity within life on the earth. So we have cellular scientists, and tissue scientists and individual-being studying scientists and those that study small groups of people and those that study huge collections of people. It's increasingly clear that public health problems cross those artificial historical divisions.

Until recently, scientists who dealt with parts of reality that could be studied in isolation (with open causal pathways and no feedback) couldn't even comprehend or tolerate the work of scientists who deal with parts of reality that cannot be studied in isolation (with complex systems, intractable feedback). The whole nature of "causality" and "the scientific method" are being revamped and revitalized to deal with complex systems. Let's see where that gets us.

The R21 research RFA I mentioned in an earlier post (Houston, we have another problem!) is an effort precisely to cross those artificial barriers between models of the world at different scales and levels of abstraction.
Earlier this week, the National Institutes of Health (in the U.S.)
announced the availability of $3M to fund approximately 10 projects
designed to facilitate "Interdisciplinary Research via Methodological
and Technological Innovation in the Behavioral and Social Sciences."
Complete details about the grant program are available online at:
http://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/rfa-files/RFA-RM-07-004.html

In some ways all I'm saying is that, if you keep going up in scale, you'll come to a scale where issues commonly termed "religious" or possibly "theological" are the current common way of modeling and investigating and understanding what mankind has observed about itself over millenia.

It is not surprising that the tools, concepts, and approaches are different from those used by civil engineers. Sociologists and psychologists and biologists disagree all the time. That doesn't say anything about whether the data are ultimately compatible in a more comprehensive model.

We have all heardthe story of the blind men who encounter an elephant, with one finding the tail, one finding a leg, one finding the ear, and arguing about whether they have come across a
huge rope, or a tree, or a huge blanket, or whatever.

What's really pivotal here is that these differences do not automatically make the viewpoints incompatible. "Incompatible" would mean that the viewpoints cannot be reconciled into being fully valid points in a larger picture. The viewpoints of the elephant can be reconciled, and must be, if one is to understand what an "elephant" is.

The question of incompatible is this: after accounting for the different observers' perspectives and viewpoints, are the observations still irreconcilably different?

Humans are not born understanding that others see the world differently than they do. Two very hard facts to accept are (1) sometimes both viewpoints are "right", and (2) sometimes the other person's viewpoint is "right" and your own, regardless how obviously true it is to you, is wrong.

Some of this accounting for viewpoint or "frame" or "reference frame" or "perspective" is something we do every day. If I look at people in the distance, I could say - "Look, people get smaller as they move farther away from me." Then other people could say "No, you're wrong, you get smaller as you move away from me!" Possibly they could fight a war in which "size matters" and battle over who it is that "get's smaller". In point of fact, of course, no one "gets smaller" they just "look smaller".

Why discarding "religion" as a whole is a very bad idea:

Actually, it's ironic that many scientists, who spend all day trying to isolate their work from the rest of reality in order to study it, now abruptly seem to realize that science itself is a social activity and only takes place in a social context.

Yes, religion and spirituality are similar to gasoline and can alternately blow up in your face, or move your fleet of automobiles. The recent work in top-performing organizations, and high-reliability organizations, all point to a need for some key traits to make them work: honesty, integrity, and compassion - variables that religions have kept central for thousands of years, despite their having "no place" in science as it was practiced. "Scientific" and machine-based models of humans, business, and commerce have resulted in as much human carnage as spiritually based models - more, in fact, when the destructive power of mankind was amplified and the integrative, compassionate side demeaned and neglected.

In fact, isn't it precisely because "science" has built huge new technologies of mass destruction and climate change, but neglected the equivalent tools of reintegration and wholeness preached by religion, that we now face the prospect of demolishing our entire planet?

I'd argue that our best route is not to despise and discard religions of the world, but to understand what it is they were trying to tell us and ask ourselves if that's not something we need to hear.


[originally posted 11/16/06 on my other weblob, cscwteam.blogspot.com ]