Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts

Saturday, October 09, 2010

Will technology be our salvation?

Today's Wall Street Journal has an inteview with entrepreneur / investor Peter Thiel, subtitled "Technology = Salvation".   

I've written about this topic before, including the immediate prior post, linking to a dark humor YouTube video on "Technology in the Classroom",   comments on social media,    and on productivity gains from "Sharpening the Axe"

The area of need for technology is clear in my posts on  "Seriously, Why didn't we see it coming?" and "Hypnotized in high places."

The technology I'm talking about is not the type that T.S. Eliot warns us about, "systems so perfect that no one needs to be good" -- it is "socio-technology" -- the technology of making people work more productively together than they would working separately, or in the "parallel play" world of most office settings.

The first example that comes to mind is the Neanderthal activity called "a meeting", often mocked as "the acceptable alternative to work."      Another example is "the committee", a structuring of human activity with the curious property that adding more and more helping hands to the mix makes the outcome less and less helpful.


In terms of basic math or common sense,  since our problems grow at least as fast as the number of people in our world,  is a method of addressing those problems that utilizes people as resources, not liabilities, and also grows at least as fast as the number of people in the world.

Instead, we have a method of addressing problems that has flattened out only slightly above the capacity of a very bright single person,  albeit one with very strong , technology-enhanced muscles.   Sadly,  our technology has, by simple observation, done nothing to enhance vision, insight, and understanding of the world.  We have the paradoxical situation that GM executives are actually surprised that a rising price of gasoline might cause people to prefer cars that get better gas mileage.   It's not just GM -- the larger the organization, based on "Meetings" and "reporting",   the blinder it appears to be to actual reality on the ground. 

Even General Colin Powell has noted that he would tend to trust the opinion of a private on the ground at the site over the central War Room,  on whether a bridge existed or had just been blown up.

The technology we need then,  to dramatically get back on the productivity increase curve, is technology that creates a work structure where adding people to the decision-making group improves the decisions that come out of it.  In math or basic computer science algorithm terms, we need a process whereby N+1 people make better decisions than N people, for any N.

Theory Y management and mindfulness get us much of the way there, but, harking back to TS Eliot's wisdom, we expect to run into the equivalent of the sound barrier -- a wall at which humans who arrive with the intent of fighting each other cannot pass without setting aside their "differences" in the consultation process.

Can technology help us with that transition?  This is not about "Powerpoint", or other ways to shout at each other more loudly -- it is about socio-technology that helps us calm our anxieties,  touch our better selves, and honestly seek out win-win solutions together.

For this, we need to leap to the next level of computing -- from processing "contents" to processing "contexts". 
 In other words,  we need assistance not in dealing with the complexity of details within a particular frame of reference or viewpoint,  but in dealing with how those contents and available solutions appear to change, based on the framework or viewpoint that form the context for those detail.s.

The reason is that there is a huge amount of important stuff buried in the tacit relationship between the details we are seeing, and the reference frame that gives specific meaning to those details.



Meetings at which people simply continue to assert loudly their details and which dots form an "obvious straight line when connected" with others doing the same, but from different viewpoints, will only generate anger and confusion.    It is not the details that are the problem -- it is that we have failed to adjust in a rational way for the differing perspectives  and frames that are invisibly but critically attached to those details.

This is where the next breakthrough in productivity will arise - in solving this problem.
And this is where I see the power of virtual worlds, such as Linden Labs "Second Life" coming into play, becuase, there, it is possible to shift the entire visible context of a meeting in a keystroke.

That means that we have a way to get our contexts out of our heads into a space where we can compare and contrast them, and understand how much our differences are due to different frames, not different data.

More on this in a later post.

Wade





























 

Thursday, November 27, 2008

OK, seriously, WHY didn't we see it coming?

"OK, enough! This tree has got to go!"



My comment in response to Paul Krugman's NY Times column today, "Lest We Forget".
========================================

Your question is superb - How did those at the top not see this coming, or take it seriously, despite many stifled voices below pointing at it in alarm?

Yes, if financial things broke on this shoal, fix the financial things.

But, at the same time, this shoal has got to go, or it will just demolish the repair effort in a never-ending cycle of "How did that happen? Fix and forget."

This exact problem is well known and well documented by everyone, across industries, government agencies, auto companies, universities, etc. This process is ALSO broken, and needs to be addressed, by as many billion dollars as spent repairing the damage it caused.

Social decision making processes are no more abstract than financial markets, but get no respect, being in a higher leverage, further upstream, less visible place in the chain of events.

High-reliability human systems have been studied extensively, from Chernobyl to The Bay of Pigs to Challenger to aircraft cockpit teams to hospital surgical teams to the US Army Leadership Field Manual. The answer always comes down to the same thing -- dissenting views need to be heard, and dissenters need what Harvard Professor Amy Edmondson calls "Psychological Safety" or they will wilt and become ineffective. This is how humans always behave and unless steps are taken it always breaks along this fault line.

The right question then should be, who is going to take charge of seeing that those steps are taken and that level of social literacy achieved?

I can't emphasize enough how much more important this is than more math and science, in the absence of this. As T.S. Eliot said, we repeatedly get burned "dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good, but the man that is will shadow the man that pretends to be."

Much of my weblog is about what we really need to do to avoid such errors in judgment. I can only hope the right person wakes up and reads it and the links to sources such as MIT's papers or John Sterman's work on how poorly we can see systems that involve feedback.

"Why we have so much trouble seeing" (and what to do about it.)
http://newbricks.blogspot.com...

(photo by myself - "Fixed at last!" )

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Clergy take on US Mortgage Mess


Martha Graybow, from Reuters, looks at what the US Clergy think about the mortgage mess in today's Washington Post. I agree wholeheartedly that there are "spiritual solutions to economic problems" but don't see them mentioned in that article.

One characteristic of spiritual solutions is that they tend to look at the bigger picture, in all three dimensions of space, time, and social scale. Like great health care, the solutions are proactive, preventing the car crash in the first place, not miraculously repairing the damage and deaths following it.

The solutions involve what seems to be a lost art these days - understanding the actual causes of outcomes, and the consequences of our own actions, and then, gasp, altering our behavior so we don't get into trouble next time.

The USA has made the news lately for the poor state of health here, and I'm not talking about insurance but simply the physical health of people. The upper quarter of white American males, for example, are less healthy than the bottom quarter of white males in England.

Why? Compare the strategies. England, with universal care, tries to prevent health problems and helps people eat well and stay fit and not do dumb things. The USA tries to have the most astoundingly heroic rescue and repair service so we can smoke, drink, and do dumb things, and then not have to face the consequences, sometimes. Of course, the culture of abandon of self-control is spread widely, and the access to repair-services is restricted, which makes for many sick poor people. What's less recognized is that even the rich end up worse. No doctor can make you better after a heart attack and transplant than you would have been if you'd stayed fit in the first place, either physically or psychologically.

With airplanes with those T-shaped tails, with the small wings ("elevators") up high on the tail, there is a design issue. If the plane descents at the wrong angle, turbulence ("stalling") from the body of the plane surrounds the tail, which loses the ability to change the angle of the plane. If you get into this condition, typically, the plane will descend into the ground before the airport. Not good.

Pilots have a question: "What do you do when you get into this condition?" and the answer is "Don't get into that condition."

And here is the difference between a novice learning lessons too late, and professionals. Professionals figure out what it takes so they don't end up in that condition, and what kind of training they need to do that, and build it into the training program so they can, in fact, "not do that." Social wisdom from other people's experience is built into everyone's training or retraining. That works, going forwards. It doesn't fix the past, of course.

So, when we look at an equivalent question to the mortgage mess, such as "What would it take to get young people not to drive too fast on icy roads?" the answer that comes to mind is "It would take a miracle."

Precisely.

It would take maturity, training, a social ethic of responsibility, a social ethic of competence, and an ability to overcome the impulse to rush and damn the consequences. All of these things are possible for people, and some people can do all of those.

The "miracle" isn't that the people wake up one day and are suddenly good drivers, but that they have the social support system that, over a long period of time, gives them the internal capacity to master skills, to survive the short-term costs of responsibility, to overcome temptation and the short-run impulses to cheat, etc.

What's "miraculous" is that this "bounce-shot" works, when you can't sink the pool ball in the pocket directly. If you try to do this activity on your own, you'll generally fail. It's hard, and it involves persistence and local costs for some distant future benefit, and you'll run out of steam regardless how well intentioned the start is.

This "steam" to keep on going is crucial. We aren't taught about this in school, sadly, despite the fact that everyone knows about it and I believe it would stand up to rigorous experimental designs and tests.

Where does this "steam" come from? What gives young people the ability to say "No!" to drugs or speeding or ill-advised sex, or the ability to stay in school, or the ability to say "No!" to a dangerous mortgage, or the ability to rise above ego and consult with others and avoid putting their foot in that mortgage bear-trap in the first place?

Some kind of larger scale, persistent social structure is needed to hold this learning and navigational advice, and some kind of practice and habit is required to develop the strength to "obey" or "submit" to that outside higher authority when the inside impulses all want to go the old way.

For pilots, professional organizations and ethics may be enough, although federal standards help somewhat. Great pilots are far above what standards require, because they use outside social support to keep themselves in line.

For most of us in daily life, we need some kind of equivalent. Organized religion has historically served this role, when it doesn't get lost in itself and lose its own way.

So, while the government's "abstinence only" method of birth control is demonstrably broken and ineffective, the reason is not that abstinence may be a good practice for teens (and others), but that it is simply not possible for fragmented individuals, on their own strength, to carry out that practice and survive temptation.

In between the chaos of everyone repeating every mistake over and over, and the rigidity of dead dogma controlling every aspect of everyone's lives is a sweet spot that can provide make good pilots or drivers of us all.

These kind of problems are not healed by prayer after the crash, but by organized activity long before the crash designed to prevent it from ever happening.

Like Mr. Rodney Dangerfield, prevention "don't get no respect." It works, it can work, it has worked, it will work - but it's an organized social activity, not something an individual does for or to themselves.

In the mix of making it happen are deeper spiritual issues of identity, motivation, purpose, awareness, externally-based stability and power, and "steam".

God, we all could use more "steam." We just wish it was free.

It's not free, but it is affordable. It's something we can do for each other that requires no huge government program and, in fact, would probably choke and die if the government tried to run it.

At this point, most people look, sigh, and turn sadly away saying "They'll never do that."

I'd like to see what would happen if the 3 hours a day of TV indoctrination encouraged social responsibility with eyes open, instead of discouraging it and encouraging blind yielding to whatever impulse the advertisers or politicians can create in us at that second.

I think the change would indeed justify the term "spiritual" sufficiently to use that word even in an academic sense. Actually, I think the reconnection to the larger "us" goes deeper, but even if it only went this deep, it would be worth investigating.

And I'm confident that, like discovering the planets, if we charted out all the known effects and watched behaviors, we'd see patterns of unexplained variation that would cause us to look even deeper for something else going on.

It's a fascinating question. Meanwhile, short term, there are solutions to our problems but we refuse to accept them, wanting, I don't know, something more glamorous or short-term.

Being able to say "yes" to saying "no" is enough of a miracle to pray for daily.

We're still trying to build some sort of moral-Rambo model, where we have internal strength that doesn't require external support -- a GPS that works without satellites. And, sure, there are inertial navigation units that weigh 200 pounds we could carry around with us, even though they drift over time. That's a stupid solution when there are satellites in place already, so the GPS in our phone can be so tiny we don't notice the weight.

Same with wisdom. Satellites and a receiver is a better model.

Is this hard to do? Well, yes and no. Is it hard to use structural and civil engineering principles and computer-assisted design to make graceful bridges that don't fall down? Yes, but it is doable and we'd be pretty stupid not to have some group of people that learn it and do it for us.

Is it harder to make social structures that don't fall down, don't become corrupt, give us daily strength to persist our lessons and still have dynamic ability to adjust to changing times? Probably not that much harder.

We've just never tackled the problem that way, because even pondering questions of what determines our behavior or allows corruption to creep in raises emotions and resistance.

Still, it seems an obvious way to go. We just need to keep on asking "Why" one more time, and saying, ok, how can we tackle this problem in social engineering even with resistance and opposition and those who prefer these subjects not be studied?

This is nothing new. T.S. Eliot, in Choruses from the Rock (1934) says
There are those who would build the Temple,
And those who prefer that the Temple should not be built.
In the days of Nehemiah the Prophet
There was no exception to the general rule.
and
In the vacant places
We will build with new bricks
There are hands and machines
and clay for new brick
and lime for new mortar
where the bricks are fallen
We will build with new stone
Where the beams are rotten
We will build with new timbers
Where the word is unspoken
We will build with new speech.
and
If men do not build
How shall they live?



That's the "new bricks" metaphor this weblog site is named for. It's a good idea.

photo credit: I35W bridge collapse photo from Poppyseed Bandits

Friday, October 19, 2007

spiritual solutions

“While our founders intended a separation of church and state, they never intended a separation of God and state,” said the U. S Senate Chaplain recently. “There is a spiritual dimension to who we are and what we are about.”

See U.S. Senate Chaplain urges Spiritual Solutions to Social Problems
The Flathead Beacon (Montana)
Oct 19, 2007
... goals for the summit, which aimed to bring faith groups and nonprofit groups together to tackle social problems. The two-day summit consists of a series of speakers and brainstorming “breakout sessions” on issues ranging from drug addiction to natural disaster response to homelessness.

Baucus then introduced the morning’s keynote speaker, U.S. Senate Chaplain Barry Clayton Black. ...

While our founders intended a separation of church and state, they never intended a separation of God and state,” Black said. “There is a spiritual dimension to who we are and what we are about.”

Black warned that historically great civilizations, like the Babylonians and Romans, “did not so much explode as implode.” He listed pointed similarities between the fall of the Roman empire and present day America, including a decline in religion, an erosion of family bonds, an obsession with frivolous sports and a government that devotes excessive amounts of revenue to the military and armaments.
...
But Black’s overall message was one of optimism that the summit could, through a spiritual perspective, brainstorm solutions to issues facing Montana.

Interesting. Here's what the Baha'i Faith's Official US webpage has to say:

Baha'is believe:

  • ...
  • work performed in the spirit of service is a form of worship
  • ...

Baha'is practice:

  • daily prayer and communion with God
  • high moral principles, including trustworthiness, chastity and honesty
  • independent investigation of truth
  • a life dedicated to the service of humanity
  • fellowship with the followers of all religions
  • avoidance of excessive materialism, partisan politics, backbiting, alcohol, drugs and gambling

Social principles include:

  • equality of women and men
  • the harmony of science and religion as two complementary systems of knowledge that must work together to advance the well being and progress of humanity
  • the elimination of prejudice
  • the establishment of a world commonwealth of nations
  • recognition of the common origin and fundamental unity of purpose of all religions
  • spiritual solutions to economic problems and the removal of economic barriers and restrictions
  • the abolition of extremes of poverty and wealth
  • the adoption of a world auxiliary language, a world script, and a uniform and universal system of currency and weights and measures