Monday, October 01, 2007

Is perpetual war good for the economy?

I guess a valid question is whether perpetual warfare is "good for the economy."

Which economy would be the first response - the one the Wall Street Journal lives in? Or the one on Main Street?

Since the economies are intertwined with the respect "healths" of the nation, the corporate infrastructure, and the civilian population individual health, this is a relevant question for public health to address.

Is the boost to the GDP from that cash flow positive? Even if so, is the GDP a good metric of the wealth and health status of the respective organisms?

Or, are we in a state where spending on the perpetual warfare is the only thing keeping one or more of these economies afloat? That's a serious issue if true, particularly if the flotation effect is transient and temporary, and the cinder-blocks around the ankle effects of the debt-funding is permanent. Or are we trying to keep our head above water by hurling rocks downward, where they end up snagged in a net attached to our ankles that is dragging us under?

It seems more and more that the latter may be the case, and every effort we make along that particular axis to improve things has the long-term outcome of making things worse, and making the current crisis more pressing, which in turn increases short-sighted "solutions", which in turn adds more rocks to our ankles.

That's a losing strategy, if that's the situation. There is no light at the end of that tunnel.

We need to start spending more energy looking further upstream and ways to actually get out of this perpetual loop of bad decisions and worse results.

Once upon a time, such issues were "cyclic" and, if we waited them out, they would "go away." I think that time has passed forever. Now, these issues are "structural." All those social trade-offs we made to live today at the cost of tomorrow have come home to roost, because the party's over and it is now tomorrow, and all the bills we racked up are coming due.

Sadly, it may mean we have to stop acting like adolescents and start acting like adults. We may be forced to realize that we can't keep spending our national treasury at a faster clip than we are generating new wealth. We may have to recognize that selling off the land and furniture isn't "income", and whatever it is, isn't sustainable.

Or, heck with it. "Party on, Garth!" "Party on, Wayne!"

I guess that's the consensus opinion. I'm just noting that the water, which used to be well below the portholes, is now up above the portholes, and there's some water coming in the cabin.

Hmm. Wait - isn't that the Canadian dollar above us? The "old European" Euro?

How are we doing with respect to the Chinese Yuan? Looks like a "free-fall" parabolic arc downward to me. Looks like "sinking" to me.

Maybe it is time to stop the fist-fights and consider our strategies and our options.

"More of the same" doesn't look viable.

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