Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Healthcare IT as strategic a collaboration edge

Thornton A. May had a piece in the Jan 22 Computerworld, on "Why Don't More CIOs become CEOs?'

As he said in I T May have become too Invisible, (Computerworld, May 2005) "The challenge for the discipline is that most of the executives currently involved in such activities don't think of IT as being able to contribute much in the transformation and innovation arena. What's worse, the people who will take those executives' places don't really think about IT people at all."

Public Health shares one major problem with enterprise IT - when it works perfectly, it's perfectly invisible. So we have the "baffling" situation where politicians complain loudly about the total health care bill ($1.7 trillion this year), while ignoring the fact that we currently spend under 2% of that on prevention, and over 98% on heroic repair. The prevention, like a clean water supply, is invisible and taken for granted. The heroic repair garners huge headlines and grateful recipients funding new buildings.

A second problem is one of image. Computing professionals today are concerned about many issues ranging from social dynamics to algorithms for collaboration to design of safe and high-reliable systems, knowledge representation, library science, etc. But the mental image many people have of it is somewhere between "payroll system" and "those people who store my data for me." It's the Rodney Dangerfield phenomenon, and it "don't get no respect" for what it is today, not what it was 30 years ago. The same thing is true in public health - tremendous advances in understanding social dynamics are invisible and public health is viewed as "insurance for poor people."

The orphan of both worlds, health care information technology, is in even a worse boat,
almost completely misunderstood and downplayed by the corporate world, by hospitals,
by public health, and invisible to patients, except when it breaks.

The fairly certain idea that increasing prevention to, say, 5% of the budget would cut downstream repair costs by 50% has close to zero traction. People evolved to be locally-oriented animals, and this "distal causality" concept apparently has no internal template or neural wiring to hang its hat on. People look at it, nod "yes", then go back to what they were doing unchanged.

Many business leaders share the "IT Doesn't Matter" mindset May quoted coming from Harvard's B-School in your June 2003 article " Harvard Flunks IT."



So, here's some thoughts.

First, yes, there's a serious visibility problem for enterprise IT. A perfectly done migration of a thousand servers from Oracle 9 to Oracle 10G will involve a huge amount of effort, and be 100% invisible to the users. The better it's done, the more invisible it is. There is about zero appreciation of how much scurrying under the covers it takes to keep on patching and migrating every component while keeping the visible surface rock solid, stable, and level. There is even less appreciation of long-range planning that avoids problems ever coming to the forefront in the first place.

Second, May said in the Harvard IT piece, "What Carr doesn't seem to understand is that the future is all about the evolution and blurring of the interface between people and our machines." I guess I agree that the entity that is evolving on a global scale now is a hybrid of human and digital components, which are co-evolving and increasingly hard to disentangle.

IT is increasingly shifting on the socio-technical axis from the "technical" end to the "social" end. That has several consequences. When IT attempts to deal with enterprise issues such as privacy, or a decision about what email system to use, the dysfunctions of the social structure are projected onto IT and IT is blamed for the resulting visible problems (see the
Oxford University example below).

Conversely, many people hope to totally avoid having to deal with social dysfunctions in their organizations and hope that somehow, with magic, putting in a new software application will cause their social problems to evaporate. If anything, the reverse is probably true, as people who were comfortable in separate silos of specialty areas suddenly now are force to deal with each other over common lexicons and applications.

Oxford is one step beyond Harvard in the model of many "ships on their own bottoms" (or "silos" in health care), each doing their own thing and refusing to cooperate, almost on general principle. I was looking at Oxford to see, OK, if we were to let academics rule the world, what would it be like?

Oxford University's IT planning documents are on line. Here's the Corporate Plan and the
Draft ICT plan .

Oxford's budget is about $200 million in the hole, each year, and sinking fast. They have heated debates but can't agree on what email system or calendar to use. But, hey, they've only had 1,100 years to sort out how to collaborate. Maybe they should get a 1 year extension on the due date for their paper.

So, it's actually then worse than invisible - IT is selectively visible only when it forces unpleasant and unacceptable social dysfunctions to become visible. Or, in evolutionary terms, IT is slowly applying an evolutionary fitness pressure on the humans to learn how to cooperate and collaborate.

And, if we believe many researchers at B-Schools who I do, in fact, agree with, these changes in culture are pivotal to creating dynamic, productive, high-performance, high-reliability organizations. The literature is becoming quite solid on the crucial role of culture in any organization that wants to produce reliable output under stress, which is pretty much all of us.

So, the large-scale, slowly changing IT infrastructure tends to become invisible to the rapidly changing, short-time-horizon CEO's.

I think one major opportunity here is to revitalize the definition of "IT" to make it much more of a socio-technical endeavor, with much more emphasis on the "socio" part.

In fact, we know that most IT projects fail, and that most of them fail over social dysfunctions in the organizational information gathering, model building, and decision-making processes. An increasing amount of academic research is revealing the distinction between legacy applications that had many individual users, and new applications, such as email or EHR, that require groups of users. All of our hard-won intuition about how single user software, such as tax preparation or a spreadsheet works, doesn't carry over into how mulitple-collaborating-user software operates or crashes and burns. This type of field is studied by Professor Gary Olson's course here at the School of Information in "Technology Mediated Collaboration", ( see http://www.si.umich.edu/research/area.htm?AreaID=3 )

But the electronic health record isn't some passive database, is the problem - it's a matrix that facilitates and forces cooperation and collaboration between doctors in different specialty areas who don't like to work with each other. It's all about what Technorati's Sifry calls "the conversation". This is new generation software where either everyone agrees on how to use it, or it won't work. And there's the new stumbling block that people aren't

But, because mentally, systems such as CPOE (Computerized Physician Order Entry) are viewed as technical challenges, not as socio-technical challenges, the design and development teams don't include cognitive psychologists, social psychologists, or anthropologists, and the social problems that tend to crash such deployment are not only unseen, but almost impossible from that perspective.

It's not one company's fault. The whole US and much of Western Civilization is caught up in the craze, as blazoned on the cover of Time magazine repeatedly, that "Our Technology is What will Save Us!" As I've noted before, this is actually more like what T. S. Eliot noted, in Choruses from The Rock (1934):
They constantly try to escape
From the darkness outside and within
By dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good.

But the man that is shall shadow
The man that pretends to be.
Top Business schools, such as the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, are now discovering the "new" concept that human emotions and psychology and even character and integrity are the keystones around which a solid bottom-line is delivered to shareholders.

The point is that humans are not actually primarily "rational actors" and getting them to all go the same direction is, indeed, worse than "herding cats." Top-down directives by "Deciders" such as Bush don't result in everyone (even the military) saluting and going that way.

Worse, even if humans do try their best to listen, obey, and comply with top-down orders, unless there is room for them to grow as human beings, the experience is more like becoming a member of Star Trek's "Borg" than joining a winning sports team. Unless the heart is engaged, having the mind try to comply doesn't actually work in the long run. Humans are not computers. Feelings matter. "Soft" social factors matter. Virtue affects the bottom line.

Now it's becoming very clear that cooperation and collaboration and high-performance teams are keys to corporate bottom-line success, more so than an internal culture of adversity and competitiveness. Glimmers of this show up in the new "agile" project managment techniques.

But, everywhere, we see the need for small-team support. The Institute of Medicine's key document "Crossing the Quality Chasm" focuses on "microsystems" as the appropriate unit to focus organizational change on - that is, small teams of people who work together to deliver a product or care for a patient. Again, design of systems to facilitate small-group small-team feedback and self-management, smaller-scale dashboards than enterprise size ones, is crucial.

And, yes, virtue drives the bottom line. There's a limit to how high a management pyramid one can build out of self-serving individuals and have the whole thing still function as a healthy unit. If the people are bonded to each other, we can build soaring structures, but if the people basically cut themselves off from each other emotionally and spiritually, we get just a big sand pile that collapses under its own weight.

The serious academic literature is beginning to support that fact, and it's a fact that technology,
by itself, if not socio-technical, cannot cure. There's a corner here we have to recognize and decide, are we a "train" company or are we a "transportation" company -- are we going to fight air travel, or start providing it? Are we going to fight social factor engineering as part of the IT core competencies for the new century, or are we going to embrace it as our new wings?

This is getting way more into Web 2.0 and interactive participation than ever before, and all the power of that, which should be part of "IT", is so far missing from the equation.

What's all that say. It says that the way upwards for CIO's is to move IT back into the strategic core of the business, visibly, by bringing in a new component under the IT banner of IT as the supporting web for social collaboration, small-team functioning, agile programming, etc. That means embracing Web 2.0 participatory interactions, which involves breaking the grip of tight, top-down, theory-X management styles.

This is the same battle agile techniques are fighting from within - to be free to grow and be facilitated, not squashed, squelched, and stomped out. There's a very deep top-down hierarchy legacy history this has to overcome, like any paradigm change. There are also very real examples of where "soft" social factors are fluff, and need to be ignored, that opponents of the new paradigm can rally behind. A solid case needs to be build, slowly, reducing the heated debate.

So, it comes down to a redefinition of the field, as train companies, faced with the arrival of airplanes, had to decide if they were really train companies, or transportation companies.
For health care IT to become strategic, it has to get out of the basement and start demonstrating power at cutting big chunks, on the order of 30% or more, out of the
nation's health care bill.

IT, in my view, is at that juncture. If the field is viewed as "data processing", yes, strategically, it is a commodity. If the field is view as "electronic facilitation through feedback-based shaping of high-performance culture", it moves back into the limelight.

Too many people's mental models of projects such as the CPOE are 95% technical, and 5%, afterthought, social. IT leadership, true leadership, will see that reversed. The job is primarily social re-engineering, changing the conversation, through the leverage handles available surrounding an "IT project".

That's using the hybrid (human and digital) tools at our disposal in the most productive fashion. In my reading, that's what needs to be changed to bring IT back into the leadership circle, and get a new lease on life that's central to evolution of the man-machine hybrid culture ahead of us.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Climate change and avian flu risks

China daily had a photo today of some of the 100,000 migratory geese, ducks, swans, and cranes that are occupying the reservoir in Henan province - apparently an unusual event due to recent warming of the climate in that area.

This is just another example of how unexpected climate changes can alter all the predictive models of how avian species interact with human food and water supplies.

It's also another example of how it is difficult to predict public health epidemiology without tracking what's going on in Asia in general and China in specific, in terms of interactions of birds and people.

China closing on US in number of internet users

According to China Daily, January 24, 2007, the number of internet users in China is
poised to pass the number in the USA within two years. The article goes on:

China is expected to overtake the United States to have the world's largest Internet population within two years, a quasi-government organization said yesterday.

The country had 137 million Internet users by the end of last year, an increase of 23.4 percent year-on-year, according to a biannual report released by the China Internet Networks Information Centre (CNNIC).

"The growth is now gaining much momentum. We are expecting even faster growth in 2007 and 2008 given that Internet penetration now has exceeded 10.5 percent in the country," said Wang.

The CNNIC report found that Internet access in China is going increasingly broadband and mobile. The country had 90.7 million broadband users by 2006, up 41.1 percent year-on-year. And about 17 million mobile phones users are now using their handsets to access the Web.

Mao Wei, director of CNNIC, said an increasingly mobile liifestyle in China could help spark an even bigger Internet boom.

The growth of China's Internet population could get a boost after the country rolls out 3G (third generation) mobile telephony, which promises faster Internet access and downloads of data-heavy services such as videos, the director said.

China had 461 million mobile phone users by the end of 2006, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Information Industry on Monday.

With user penetration hitting 10 percent, the Internet would create a vast array of opportunities for businesses.

Morgan Stanley anticipates escalated industry consolidation in China's Internet sector this year, with "market share shifting to a few market leaders" such as NASDAQ-listed Sina Corp, Sohu.com, Baidu, Hong Kong-listed Tencent and unlisted Alibaba.

Pfizer to close Ann Arbor research facility

According to many news sources, including the New York Times and the Detroit Free Press, Pfizer's worldwide cutbacks announced monday include shutting the entire Ann Arbor research facility, which directly employs 2100 people. Pfizer is also the largest taxpaying company in Ann Arbor.

Detroit Free Press:
Pfizer Job Losses are Blow to Ann Arbor
Jan 23, 2007

Ann Arbor, which has been a bright spot in Michigan's bleak economy, got a taste Monday of what the rest of the state is going through.

About 2,100 jobs will be gone. Pfizer's 2-million-square-foot research hub will become empty....

But many workers are expected to follow their Pfizer jobs to other states. The company plans to transfer up to 70% of the jobs that will be displaced in Ann Arbor.

"I think the worst effect is that it essentially undermines our efforts to diversify our economy away from the auto industry," Grimes said. "We just took it on the chin in the area that we wanted to go into."

The city and state's tax rolls will take a hit, too.

Pfizer is Ann Arbor's largest taxpayer. In 2005, the company paid $4.5 million in taxes to the city, or 6.2% of the city's $72 million in tax revenue. That year the company paid $12.6 million in taxes to state and local governments.



The New York times reported:
Pfizer, Hurt by Rival Drugs, Will Lay off 7800
Jan 23, 2007

Pfizer said yesterday that it would cut 7,800 workers, close several manufacturing and research sites and overhaul its business practices in hopes of coping with competition from cheaper generic drugs and setbacks in developing new products.

The new layoffs are in addition to 2,200 that Pfizer announced last month, when it cut its American sales force by 20 percent. The 10,000 job reductions, involving all parts of the company around the world, account for about 10 percent of Pfizer’s global work force.

The cuts will include closing a plant in Brooklyn that employs 600 people, and research sites in Michigan employing about 2,400 people. [Page C6.]

In the Ann Arbor News, the layoffs were associated with a need for a culture change, although the direct reference to Pfizer was missing.

A critical point here, that is not made explicitly, is that even extraordinarily good research staff can be "neutralized" by a wet-blanket culture that discourages exploration and innovation.

It is not sufficient to have great people, and even great research facilities, which Pfizer did - a company must also have a great innovation culture, which apparently Pfizer did not. If that's true, it's not a reflection on the staff, but on management's failure to shape the culture.

As with the rest of "system thinking", where "blame" is more correctly pointed at "the system" not the hapless worker who was last on the causal chain, we have to ask if closing the research facility is tackling the correct problem. We can recall the worst performing engine manufacturing plant that GM had that was taken over by, I think, Toyota, which changed
under a dozen top people, and became the best performing engine planet in the world.

You have to wonder what would motivate Pfizer top management to care, a broader problem with CEO "compensation" in the USA today. According to the Ann Arbor News, former CEO Hank McKinnell departed in July, under pressure, following a 40 percent slide in Pfizer stock prices - and "left with what could easily be described as a $83 million golden parachute."



The article on page D1 of
The Ann Arbor News
Jan 22, 2007
Pfizer's test: changing the culture
by Mary McDonough

Pfizer has been open about the need to change its bureaucratic culture. Top-ranking officials have often been quoted sayign the company can't cost-cut its wayt o innovation and instead needs to encourage its people on the R&D side to discover new drugs more quickly.

One local life sicences entrepreneur told me [that a Pfizer folks ] aren't encouraged to "think outside the box".

How important is company culture?

Ann Arbor based Denison Consulting, which attempts to quantify exactly that, released its newest study Friday. ...

The Denison Consulting report PR Newswire summary can be found at
HRMarketer.com
Latest Study from Denison Consulting Determines that Companies with High-Performance culture deliver...

ANN ARBOR, Mich., Jan. 25 /PRNewswire/ --

According to the latest research conducted by Denison Consulting, companies that demonstrate higher levels of performance in key areas of organizational culture -- including adaptability, consistency, mission and involvement -- tend to deliver better results in return- on-assets, sales growth and shareholder value.

"It's possible to measure, monitor and influence organizational culture, and we have developed scientifically valid tools to accomplish such vital tasks," said Dan Denison, who co-founded Denison Consulting, along with his business partner Bill Neale, in the 1990s. The company, with headquarters in Ann Arbor, Michigan, also operates offices in Zurich, Switzerland and Shanghai, China.

Experts in organizational development, Denison and Neale have created survey instruments that have been used in North America, Europe and Asia to help businesses improve their results. During the past 10 years, more than 4,000 organizations have polled their employees using the Denison Organizational Culture Survey (DOCS), a tool for diagnosing organizational culture and performance.

Ryan Smerek, a research analyst at Denison Consulting, led the most recent study. He examined data from a sample of 102 companies that had deployed the DOCS survey between 1996 and 2004. Businesses that achieved the best scores in the poll were compared with those earning the lowest scores in the survey. In effect, the top quartile -- or 25 percent of the sample -- was contrasted with the lowest quartile group.

Companies with the best organizational culture scores earned an average return-on-assets of 6.3 percent, vs. 4.5 percent for firms with the lowest organizational scores. The top-quartile firms achieved average, one-year sales growth of 15.1 percent, as compared with .1 percent for the lowest-quartile group. And companies with the best culture scores also led in shareholder value, with average market-to-book values of 440 percent as compared to 350 percent for firms with the lowest culture scores. (A company's market-to-book value is the ratio of the market price of its shares over its book value in total equity.)

"These results represent a dramatic affirmation of the importance of organizational culture, and its link to real-world business results," said Smerek. "The companies that achieved higher scores on mission, consistency, involvement and adaptability earned $6,300 for every $100,000 in assets, while those with lower cultural scores earned $4,500 for every $100,000," he said. "That's a huge difference -- a return-on-assets difference totaling 40 percent."

Researchers at Denison Consulting also took a longer-term look at the 102 companies in the sample. During a three-year period, the firms with the best organizational culture scores significantly outperformed their industry peers, as well as the companies with the lowest organizational culture scores, in all three outcome areas -- return-on-assets, sales growth, and shareholder value.

A previous study by Denison Consulting found that organizations with higher DOCS scores do a better job in satisfying their customers, vs. organizations with lower DOCS scores.

"Organizational culture is extremely important to business success, and the really good news is that it is not a soft science," said Denison. "With valid data on an organization's culture, we can pinpoint areas for improvement and predict the positive business results that are likely to be achieved with the right interventions and action plans."

Information on Dennison Consulting is available on-line. Even from the graphic on that website, one can see they're using the "clash of cultures" model - the circle on the right with 4 colors being the classic logo, as is the logo on the top left of the webpage.

Organizational culture is a core research focus at the University of Michgan's Ross School of Business.

An example of University of Michigan use of the Denison culture survey is available on-line. Slide 28 captures the key ideas:

  • Build the organization around teams, not individuals.
  • Require performance appraisals for everyone.
  • Reward and promote people who build organizational capability.

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Comair 5191 - Confirmation bias and framing

The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) transcript of ill-fated Comair flight 5191 crash upon takeoff at Lexington this last August was just released (January 17th), and one of the interpretations of it supports cognitive issues related to "framing" and "confirmation bias". The CVR transcript is the first one on the list of links here.

Below is a copy of a post I made to a different forum on the subject. "FO" is First Officer, the pilot in the right-hand seat who took over flying once they were taxied to and on the [wrong] runway by the left-hand seat Captain. As noted earlier, the aircraft in question only has nosewheel steering for the left-hand seat, so responsibilities had to be divided this way, even though the FO was going to fly as Pilot in Command (PIC) to Atlanta once taxiing was done.

The focus of this discussion is not on failings of the crew members, but on everything else, the "system factors" that contributed to this situation, the factors that provided the metahorical gun and the ammunition, loaded the gun, cocked the hammer, and handed it to the crewmembers who, at the end of that casual chain, pulled the trigger.

The human errors can be dealt with somewhat by training individuals or crews, but the system factors need to be dealt with by changes to the infrastructure.

And, not a single word of discussion in that 30 minutes on the CVR that the taxiway or runway lights were out - from which I'd guess they had already discussed this and the FO had shared his observation from Friday evening that the Northeast end of runway 22 had no lights working at all. The only time the subject comes up again is mid-roll, after crossing the real 22, when the FO says "dat wierd with no lights" and the Captain says "yeah." That's not proof, but it's the first point at which reality differed from his mental model, and it's the first point a comment is made.

Another framing issue was their delight that they had a very simple clearance that couldn't get "any easier that that", lessening vigilence more.

But there is still the factor of the wrong airport diagram, which is still wrong. ( http://www.naco.faa.gov/d-tpp/0701/00697AD.PDF for those who don't have charts.) The taxiway they should have been using, just west of Alpha-7, is not shown. (it's visible in the photo on wikipedia, at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comair_Flight_5191 )

Here's one possible scenario for a different type of framing. The crew understood that A7 was going to be blocked, and got the news that the next best taxiway was in use. Whoever told them that (suppose) meant the new one, the one not shown. They looked at their charts and figured that must mean Alpha-6. They expect an intersection with no lights, no pavement markings, no signage, and four possible ways to go. They expect to see across from them 2 concrete taxiways and, to their extreme left, runway 22, which they expect to be 150 feet wide and have no lights. There is no other spot on that diagram with two concrete taxiways across from them.

But there is a place in reality with two concrete taxiways and a 150 foot wide unlit runway to their extreme left, which is where they really were.
They didn't know about the new taxiway, and they may not have realized that runway 22 was actually 150 feet wide (with only 75 usable).

So, again, nothing seemed out of place, and the decision was "really easy" - taxi to the unlit runway intersection and take the extreme left 150 foot wide runway - "impossible" to make a mistake.

It would be valuable to know what combination of barricades and signage was visible from their gate to the taxiway they took.
This discussion doesn't argue that the flight crew didn't commit errors, which they clearly did. The purpose of a safety review of this kind is not to assess legal liability, but to look for intervention points where this same kind of error could be prevented in the future.

The scenario I describe above is a perfect case where the worst possible error can occur even in a situation that the participants view as on in which an error would be impossible. (This is why operating rooms have "time outs" before surgery begins now.)

In this scenario (even if something different happened in Lexington), the tower or ground crew or briefers are working, literally, on a different map of the world than the pilots. Phrases could occur, such as "the taxiway is closed, use the next one" are rich in undetected ambiguity. Is taxiway A-7 closed its entire length, or just half way down it? Is "the next one" A-6, as shown on the flight crew's official FAA airport diagram, or is it the brand new taxiway not shown on any diagram? This phrase is not in the transcript - but we are missing the conversation where this was discussed prior to the CVR's 30 minute recording.

It could have happened, is the point. More precisely, things LIKE IT could happen in the future in different circumstances: conversational partners have different mental maps and don't realize it, and carry on what looks like an unambiguous conversation to both parties, but with totally different meaning. Framed in that context, everything that follows makes perfect sense, and even satisfies multiple cross-checks for being correct. Those in that frame say "It's impossible to get this wrong." The tower, seeing only one runway lit, could say "It's impossible to get this wrong." Vigilance is never triggered by the unfolding events on either side. The mental frame is so strong that the First Officer brought the Captain into his world as well. People are focusing on data that support their model, not looking for anything that might challenge the model - at least, not until midway through the takeoff roll.

This is, in this case, an error that following the standard protocols and procedures correctly would have detected. On the other hand, the hundreds of other check list items distracted from this one, so adding more procedures and protocols is not a guaranteed good thing. The First Officer was head down, working in the cockpit, not attending to taxiing because he was working all the other preflight checklist items.

Oh, and one more "system" factor that also would have changed the outcome entirely. The airport has a slight hill in the middle of it, so that the far end of the runways are not visible from the near end, but are out of sight over the hillcrest. The visibility is reported by ATIS ALPHA to be 8 miles. If it's correct that the crew believed the lights were just out at the near end, but turned on at the far end of the runway they sought, and the airport had been entirely flat, they would have seen at a glance that their model didn't fit. In fact, if they had seen the end of the runway even with lights on, they would have seen at a glance that it was not the longer runway.
Reviewing system factors, any one of which might have changed the outcome:
* the airport had a hill in the middle of it.
* Runway 26 was 150 feet wide, but shown on the airport diagram as 75 feet wide.
* The lights were out at the takeoff end of runway 22 for something like 30 minutes, the same window of time as when the First Officer arrived friday night and noted the situation.
* The airport diagram did not correspond to reality, lacking the extra runway. The airport diagrams that are current are still not updated. The small versions of the airport diagrams on the instrument procedure plates make it look like there is a closed runway that comes all the way down to runway 26, marked by an "X", even though the larger diagram shows there is a gap (from the one marked with several "x" flags.)
* There is at least one possible confusion of route to the takeoff point that the diagram discrepancy allows, in which a sharp left turn onto a 150-foot wide runway at the end of the taxiing made perfect and unambiguous sense.
* Only the pilot in the left hand seat could steer the nosewheel steering, which separated the pilot in command (the first officer) from the activity that was done incorrectly by the senior Captain in the left-hand seat.
* Unquestioned cultural convention demands that the higher ranking officer sit on the left side, even though it would make more sense in this aircraft to have the pilot in command sit on that side.
* The tower was understaffed, and the lone occupant was (correctly) busy with other traffic at the crucial few seconds when he otherwise might have idly watched flight 5191 taxi into position and noted the error. It wasn't the tower responsibility to do that, but it could have occured and caught the problem.
* The only person who noticed the error, apparently, a ramp worker, had no way to communicate by radio to the aircraft and his attempt to run to the runway and wave down the plane did not succeed.
* The aircraft was not equipped with the $18,000 piece of equipment that would have automatically detected the runway error and alerted the crew, possibly because the airline was in bankruptcy proceedings.
* The crew seemed to behave as if operating in violation of FAA regulations was something they were routinely expected to just do and shut up about - judging from the fact that they continued to attempt a takeoff from an unlit runway, even though the first officer sighed when he commented that the lights were out all over the place.

All of the above, while not "causal" in some senses of the word, are also factors that, if they were changed, would have changed the outcome or very likely changed the outcome of this flight. They may not alter the legal assignment of liability and "blame" for the outcome, but they should illuminate intervention points for preventing similar events in the future.


technorati tags:, , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 19, 2007

Kennedy will ask FDA to regulate smoking




The New York Times reports that Ted Kennedy will introduce legislation to have the FDA regulate tobacco.



Here's an excerpt:

WASHINGTON, Jan. 18 — A Harvard study concluding that cigarette makers have for years deliberately increased nicotine levels in cigarettes to make them more addictive led to renewed calls Thursday for greater federal oversight of the industry.

Senator Edward M. Kennedy , the Massachusetts Democrat who is now chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, promised to reintroduce within weeks a bill that would allow the Food and Drug Administration to regulate cigarettes.

Mr. Kennedy’s bill passed the Senate in 2004 but failed in the House. With Democrats now in control of both houses, public health advocates said they had new hope that the legislation — debated for more than a decade — could pass.


On that general subject, here are some great short video clips on MySpace with dark humor about smoking:

Jay Leno on Saddam Hussein and the tobacco industry

And remember to wash your hands!

When that guy across from you asks "Do you mind if I smoke?"

(photo credit: sage )

technorati tags:, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Monday, January 15, 2007

Book: Building the Bridge by Robert Quinn

University of MIchigan Business School professor, Robert E. Quinn, the author of Deep Change, has written a new book Building The Bridge as You Walk On It - A guide for Leading Change.

The book shows how some very successful business organizations have converted theory into practice, using integrity and character to be the revitalizing firet hat makes it all work. In fact, Quinn argues, every one of the largest, most-successful companies seems to use this type of transformational leadership.

He has a web site for this book and other books at www.deepchange.com.

The University of Michigan Ross School of Business iTunes site
has a "seminars" section and a great talk by Robert Quinn can be
downloaded via iTunes fromt here titled "Building the Bridge from Good
to Great".

Professor Quinn presents the case that extraordinary organizations achieve extraordinary results, measured by the bottom line, by using a transformational change that comes about by first transforming the character of the organizations leadership.

Through stories, anecdotes, and exercises, he tries to make these concepts accessible, event though they fly in the face of traditional, highly-competitive theories of how to maximize wealth and productivity of a business organization by setting the managers at each other's throats in a competition to see "who is best."

The leadership style that is consistently found in the highest-performing organizations stresses character, integrity, humility, collaboration, and a leader who is oriented to care first about the organization and second about themself.

Quinn says (page 90):

[...The] fundamental state of leadership is ... the movement towards ever-increased levels of personal and collective integrity. Ever-increasing integrity is the source of life for individuals and groups.... It is the antithesis of slow death...

He goes on to discuss how continual application of this sort of "tough love" can create a collective movement in the organization to a much more empowered and creative state, and how that movement takes on a life of its own that can outlast the person who induced it, possibly even completing its work after the person has left.

He quotes Victor Frankl (1963):

What man needs is not a tensionless state, but rather the stiving and struggling for some goal worthy of him.

Teaching Resources and course Syllabi for various courses are available on-line for free as well.

Free access to previous research presentations in audio format, downloadable to iTunes or whatever you use, are also available.



















Sunday, January 14, 2007

Religion and Spirituality Weblog - UPI

United Press International (UPI) runs a website with news and commentary on multiple religions. Phyllis Edgerly Ring, a Baha'i, is a regular columnist there, with a column on tuedays entitled "One Light, Many Lamps."

It took me a few minutes to figure out how to find her postings, since that column title doesn't appear to be indexed, although her name is. If you go to the home page for religionandnspirituality.com, go to the bottom of the page on the advanced search,
and select "Phyllis Edgerly Ring" from the pull down list of "columns and features", then put anything in for a search term that is not blank (for example the word "light" without the quotes), and select the relevant dates, and you'll pull up all her articles.

You can also get there by putting "One Light, Many Lamps" in the search window at the top of the page, but I find that hard to see and the punctuation has to be exact.

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Context versus content, silos, and the EHR

This is theoretical and abstract.


The prior post here,  regarding Scott Page's work on the power of diversity in his new book "The Difference",  deals with predictions more than estimations.  The difference is crucial.

What is being pooled is a set of models, not a set of data points where each of the points estimates some true value plus noise.

More precisely, each of the models is really a subdimensional sampling of a higher dimensional reality.  Maybe the reality has 50 key factors, and each model pays attention to only 5 or so of those factors and does the best estimation it can using those.

So, in an abstract sense, the primitive elements being pooled are really reference frame choices.

That means that we are looking at a computing system, in the most abstract sense, which isn't processing "content" but is processing "context".

The equation presented by Page that I saw involves summing a set of terms, each of which takes current reality and views it through a different lens resulting in a "content" estimate.

I'm suggesting that this equation and physical reality could be refactored a different way, and seen instead as summing the lenses first,  then using the aggregated and synthesized new hyper-lens to view reality.  This "aperture synthesis" approach is probably mathematically equivalent, but touches a different part of our intuition and suggests different experiments.

In fact,  the transition has some parallels to going from an array of light sensors, such as a common house-fly's compound eye,  and changing to a model of a retina, which means there are light-sensors and also, critically, higher-vision centers that process data on an image level, not a pixel level.

This in many ways describes the sense of a peak-performance teamwork window, or peak Baha'i "consultation", where the people have in many real ways given up individual "ego" and become, in crucial ways, a larger system that operates as if a single larger being.   It is as though the slime-mold individual cells have flowed together and, for the moment, formed a larger living being that can act as if it was a single living thing, but then when it reaches its destination dissolves again into individuals.

The above part of this post describes changing the idea of a "central [content] processing unit" (CPU) to a "central [context] processing state" (CCPS).

Something like this appears to me to be necessary to overcome, for example, the breakdown of health system hospitals and the clinical medical area into hundreds or thousands of tertiary specialties, each of which forms silos and a type of fractal-shaped world in which "data" about the patient is observed by these tertiary specialists. 

The key problem with "The Electronic Health Record", which seeks to "consolidate" all these disparate system's data,  is that most of the meaning of the data is context-sensitive.

This is mathematically equivalent to the world described in the Hilbert Space of cosmological General Relativity, where local warps and curvature of the underlying space-time metric distort not only the thing being observed, but also the observer.

Digression into general relativity:

In Relativity,  it is not possible to simply take a "set of measurements" made in context A, and lift them off the map, and plop them down unaltered into context B, and then compare them to what an observer in context B measured and get anything that makes sense. 

For example, if two observers are racing towards each other at 99.995% of the speed of light, each, if they can see the other, will observe the other's clock to be moving more slowly than their own.   Initially, we say this is clearly a "paradox".  How could both of these things be true? They seem "inconsistent".   At this point most incorrect interpretations of the situation say "nothing can be measured, everything is relative" and go off the deep end.

What Einstein said is very different. He said that, if you take observation A, and slide it through space over to context B, and as you slide it, adjust it for the sliding process and the change in space-warp that is occurring under you,  when it reaches context B, it will agree entirely with what a credible observer in context B observed.  This process of "parallel transfer" of tensor data is crucial to reconciling observations made in different reference frames or differently warped contexts by perfectly credible, perfectly accurate observers who are themselves embedded in those reference frames.

In fact, Einstein went on to say that you could equivalently parallel transfer both observations to a "flat" reference frame, a perfect one with no distortion, where they would both have changed, but would now agree entirely with each other.  He said, there is indeed a "proper" reference frame that could be used, if you want, in which to do data comparisons and aggregation.

Return to the discussion

The reason I raise general relativity is not to confuse things, but to point out that there are solid physical models and existing mathematical tools for dealing with context-sensitive data.  They are not for the timid.

However, they provide in some way a guide to what is probably going to be needed to get a central "Electronic Health Record"  (EHR) to work - namely, that the hard work be done to relate each of the sub-specialties to a "proper" or "flat" central reference frame, so that the data can be distorted and transformed properly as it is moved from the tertiary specialy subsystem to the central data repository.

Distorted? Transformed?  (The audit trail people have run screaming from the room.)

Yes, distorted.  When a clinical oncologist says that a person "has cancer" this does not mean the same thing at all as when a patient says he "has cancer."  The words look identical, but the meaning is different.  What is being said, and the whole worldful of implications of what is being said, is entirely different.  You cannot just take the words that mean something within one context and remove them from context and plop them down somewhere else in a different context.  That is an illegal operation, mathematically, that is more wrong than "distorting" or "correcting" the words for the context as best one can.

And, if you did, the tertiary specialists would never want to "read" the central EHR record summary of the patient, because they would either get the wrong idea of what was being said, or be totally confused.  Their first question for every "observation" would have to be (and typically is) - "Who said that?"   They don't mean just what person said that, with what level of expertise, but in what specialty, in what context, with what level of sophistication and discrimination were those exact words selected?

And, are those, in fact, the exact words, or did some coding clerk, generically trained, take the carefully selected words of a specialist and replace them with some sort of universal least-common-denominator phrasing?

No, we can see that the context of tertiary specialists IT systems in fact hold much, perhaps 99% or more, of the meaning of any given set of words, of what is being tacitly or implicitly said in shorthand by that exact choice of language.

So, they would actually never want to go to the Clnicical data central repository to "read all about" the patient. What they would want is that any and all relevant data be transformed the other direction,  be brought into their tertiary context world,  and stated precisely in their own shorthand.  Then they can find it more useful than misleading.

As with Hilbert space or general relativity's "tensors", some data corresponds to rank-zero data, ie, scalars, and can in fact translate from one place to another by just lifting it up and moving it.  Number of children is invariant.  Temperature,  list of drugs currently being given, schedule for next tuesday, home phone number, etc.   These are not context-sensitive.

But much of the clinically significant readings are, in fact,  extraordinarily context sensitive. Some mean absolutely nothing outside of the small circle of specialists. 

I suspect that this problem, of a fractal metric underlying clincial data and practice "silos", is one that will be the shoals upon which many EHR ships will be lost.













technorati tags:, , , , , , , , ,

Book: The Difference by Scott E. Page


Can a crowd of average people be smarter than experts? "Yes, but only if they are very diverse" is the latest academic resarch finding.

In fact, in the equations, it turns out that diversity is just as important as other measures, such as IQ, in helping people make good predictions about the future and good policy decisions.

And, if we look deeper, even the experts, it turns out, are experts partly because they are walking containers of many very diverse alternative mental models, which they apply to problems, thereby doing a sort of internal diverse-crowd activity.

A new book coming out January 15th is titled "The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies " by researcher Scott E. Page.

Scott Page is a Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, And Economics at the University of Michigan. He is internationally known for his work on complex systems and his research has affected the discussion of affirmative action at the University of Michigan and the US Supreme Court.

Here is a direct link to the Book Website and his other writings on Diversity.

According to the Princeton Press, quoted at that book website,

In this landmark book, Scott Page redefines the way weunderstand ourselves in relation to each other. The Difference is about how we think in groups,about how our collective wisdom exceeds the sum of its parts. Why can teams ofpeople find better solutions than brilliant individuals working alone? And whyare the best group decisions and predictions those that draw upon the veryqualities that make each of us unique? The answers lie in diversity-not what welook like outside, but what we look like within, our distinct tools andabilities.

The Difference reveals that progress and innovation may depend less onlone thinkers with enormous IQs than on diverse people working together andcapitalizing on their individuality. Page shows how groups that display a rangeof perspectives outperform groups of like-minded experts. Diversity yieldssuperior outcomes, and Page proves it using his own cutting-edge research.Moving beyond the politics that cloud standard debates about diversity, heexplains why difference beats out homogeneity, whether you're talking aboutcitizens in a democracy or scientists in the laboratory. He examines practicalways to apply diversity's logic to a host of problems, and along the way offersfascinating and surprising examples, from the redesign of the Chicago"El" to the truth about where we store our ketchup.

Page changes the way we understand diversity--how to harnessits untapped potential, how to understand and avoid its traps, and how we canleverage our differences for the benefit of all.

Yesterday I went to a talk given by Professor Page, that went over chapters seven and eight of that book focusing on "cogintive diversity and predictive models."

He put his book in context and also had nice things to say about two other books currently on the market - "The Wisdom of Crowds " by James Surowiecki, and " Blink: The power of thinking without thinking " by Malcolm Gladwell.

I haven't had a chance to read The Difference yet, since it isn't out, and some of it may be more mathematical than some readers prefer - but it does look like required reading for anyone who wants to build a solid theoretical understanding of why "diversity" is a critical element of good social policy or even good corporate policy.

In fact, some corporations, such as Google or HP, already use internal group thinking and voting to predict whether products will be successful, or other "unknowables", with a success factor greater than the "experts".

The implications of this for democracy and social are profound. And, certainly, the scholars of the Baha'i Faith, centered on principles of "unity with diversity" and collaborative "consultation" should check this out this very important book that connects the science with the social principles.

I have many prior posts on the key problem of unity and diversity, seen as the core problem of any social organization (overcoming "silos"), or countries (Iraq today, or the USA and "e pluribus unum") or the mathematical or biological principles on which multicellular life is a good idea (specialization versus wholeness), or on the policies with respect to Information Technolgy centralization or decentralization, or on the general, scale-independent concept of "health" and "public health". The breakdown in unity and loss of social capital or social connectivity seems to be correlated, perhaps causally, with very substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. This whole question of how to be simultaneously independent individuals and part of a larger society that doesn't turn into a diversity-less "Borg" is fascinating, and central to protecting our social values.

Unity with Diversity is the key problem
e pluibus unum (US social unity)
Social Intelligence (Daniel Goleman's book)
Healing Through Unity Newsletter




technorati tags:, , , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 12, 2007

DC crash of Air Florida was 25 years ago

There are some additional references that supplement today's The Washington Post article regarding the changes in aviation and hospital safety since that day 25 years ago tomorrow when Air Florida flight 90 failed a slushy takeoff and crashed into the Potomac.


The article "A Crash's Improbable Impact" by Del Quentin Wilber describes the change from the rugged individual model of cockpits and operating rooms to a much safer model that emphasizes less ego and more listening to what staff are trying to say.

But some experts believe it took the spectacular crash of Air Florida in the Potomac to drill the lessons home and spur widespread use of what was then a revolutionary training regime, later to be known as Crew Resource Management.

Soon, airlines were teaching the Air Florida crash as a textbook example of what can go wrong when pilots do not communicate and listen properly.

Actually, Crew Resource Management is evolving into a science known as the University of Texas "Threat and Error Management", described in this British Medical Journal (BMJ) paper and this BMJ slide show that I refer to in prior posts analyzing the crash of Comair Flight 5191 in Kentucky last August.

PIlot John Nance's National Patient Safety Foundation should be mentioned as well, bringing aviation safety lessons into hospitals systematically. And University of Michigan Professor Karl Weick's work on organizational "mindfulness" is also required reading in how things go wrong and why. (One case of wildfire safety research is linked here and here.) Weick has written extensively about organizational "sensmaking under pressure".

Serious students of High Reliability Organizations have entire web sites with a deep literature on what actually works and what doesn't to make complex operations safer for us all, as well as some in depth white papers on the Web, such as MIT's John Carroll's ""Organizational Learning From Experience in High-Hazard Industries: Problem Investigation as Off-Line Reflective Practice" that explore what can go wrong and how to stop it. (I wrote a very short summary of that here.)

One very serious learning organization that deals with high-stakes life-and-death situations daily isn't hospitals, but the US Army. Those who don't believe that listening to subordinates (management's "theory Y") can work in practice and be compatible with maintenance of hierarchical control and mission control should read the US Army's Leadership Field Manual (FM 22-100) and see how they have merged the two successfully into a command and leadership doctrine.

Back on the hospital level, introduction of these techniques is now being taught in "Patient Safety" courses at schools such as Johns Hopkins by researchers such as Albert Wu, Laura Morlock, and Peter Pronovost - who won last year's JCAHO Eisenberg award for work in ICU safety. This is downstream work of the Institute of Medicine's "To Err is Human" study estimating almost 100,000 patients were dying each year from avoidable mistakes in hospitals, most of which arose from failures of communication.

One the reasons that many counselors are required for understanding and victory is that complex adaptive systems defy our intuition and often produce unexpected side-effects that humans tend to resist dealing with. This is clearly documented by Jay Forrester in his classic testimony to Congress referenced in my prior post here.

The trick in short is that commanders need to build trust in their men and women between high-speed missions if they expect their troops to listen and follow them blindly when it matters the most. The flip side is that very often the troops at the front are more in touch with reality than their commanders, and a pathway upwards for discordant or discrepant information has to be provided to update the mental model of what's going on.

The third reason for a whole-body learning organization is that sometimes the pilot in command simply loses it, but that shouldn't cost the mission. If you read the transcript to Air Florida flight 90's last minutes, the part not mentioned in the article, the pilot appears to have moved 60 seconds ahead in time and already be in the river: he simply repeats over and over "It's so cold" as the plane careens to its death.





technorati tags:, , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Law of unintended consequences

The field of Systems Dynamics studies counter-intuitive social systems where the result of an action is exactly the opposite of what you would expect. 

The typical result of this surprisingly common problem is that policy makers may see a problem which they don't realize is caused by their own actions, and therefore increase that action precisely when they should be decreasing it.

The classic paper in this field is Jay Forrester's congressional testimony:
 "The Counterintutive Behavior of Social Systems",
http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www/D-4468-2.Counterintuitive.pdf

Quoting the abstract:

Society becomes frustrated as repeated attacks on deficiencies in social systems lead only to worse symptoms. Legislation is debated and passed with great hope, but many programs prove to be ineffective. Results are often far short of expectaions Because dynamic behavior of social systems is not understood, government programs often cause exactly the reverse of desired results.

The Systems Dynamics Society is working to make that type of understanding much more common among all educational levels, including K-12.  Schools of Public Health have now included "Systems Thinking" in the "MPH Core Curriculum", as of this year.

Still, penetration of these skills into routine use is going agonizingly slowly. The original work was published over 50 years ago.   Only in March, 2006 did "Systems Thinking" make it to the American Journal of Public Health.

One thing that is clear is that the simple process of meeting together to organize what is known and make a qualitative "causal loop diagram" is often very valuable even in its own right. (See "Business Dynamics" by John Sterman.)

The US has a full Master's and PhD program in System Dynamics at Worcester Polytechic Institute in Massachusetts, with a distance-learning option.

The British have made somewhat more progress, and an excellent review is here rearding system dynamics and the UK National Health System ( NHS ) written by Eric Wolstenholme.



technorati tags:, , , , , , , , , , , ,

California Central Valley prepares to freeze



Brace for subfreezing

Sacaramento Bee - Jan 11, 2007


Emergency officials braced to help the needy and homeowners scrambled to buy pipe insulation as a Siberian cold front crept into California.

There remains a slim chance for snowfall in Sacramento and other low-lying areas tonight, with a 20 percent chance of precipitation. But below-freezing temperatures are a more immediate concern.

The low temperature in Sacramento tonight is expected to be 27 degrees. And that's the good news.

Temperatures are predicted to drop to 25 degrees Friday night and 26 degrees Saturday night. Winds of 10 to 20 mph through Friday will make the cold feel worse, dropping perceived temperatures into the teens.

The National Weather Service issued a freeze watch covering the entire Central Valley for Friday night through Saturday morning. This means plants and pipes could freeze, and pets and vulnerable people should be protected.

"We could definitely see some snow flurries, but we're not expecting snow to accumulate in the valleys," said Steve Goldstein, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Sacramento. "The big concern really is the cold temperatures."

Keeping in mind last July's heat wave - blamed for more than 140 deaths in California -- state and local officials Wednesday mobilized "warming centers" for anyone who needs refuge from the cold.

"We are very concerned about people who don't have enough heat in their homes or are homeless," said Sacramento Mayor Heather Fargo.

"We want to make sure that nobody in Sacramento is left out in the cold, literally," said county Supervisor Roger Dickinson.

Isleton has posted notices that its firehouse and community center are available to anyone whose heating system fails.

"The cold is dangerous," said Dr. Mark Horton, California's public health officer. "There are certain subgroups that are particularly vulnerable: children, the elderly, people with respiratory conditions. Check in on those folks to be sure they're being looked after and cared for appropriately."

Horton warned people not to use any outdoor heat source inside a home, such as a barbecue or cook stove, which can cause deadly carbon monoxide gas to accumulate.


Brace for the Cold

Sacramento Bee (sacbee.com - registration required)

Warning: With the nightly low temperatures predicted to drop below freezing in the next several days, local officials are urging residents to take precautions.

Home and hearth:

• Review family emergency plan.

• Replenish emergency supply kits, check radio and flashlight batteries.

• Have extra blankets.

• Pay special attention to infants, children, seniors and those with disabilities.

• Winterize your house, barn, shed or any other structure that may provide shelter.

• Move family pets indoors or to an enclosure out of the elements.

• Move plants indoors or cover with blankets or plastic to prevent freezing.

• Maintain a sufficient supply of heating fuel.

• Insulate pipes and allow faucets to drip during cold weather to avoid freezing.

• Keep fire extinguishers on hand, and make sure everyone knows how to use them.

Do not bring heating devices into the home that are intended for outdoor use, such as barbecues and other cooking equipment or other fuel-burning devices. These items can produce deadly carbon monoxide.

• Learn how to shut off water valves (in case a pipe bursts).

Cold weather wear:

• Wear several layers of loose-fitting, lightweight, warm clothing rather than one layer of heavy clothing. The outer garments should be tightly woven and water repellent.

• Wear mittens, which are warmer than gloves. Wear a hat. Cover your mouth with a scarf to protect your lungs.

Pay attention to symptoms:

• Confusion, dizziness, exhaustion and shivering are signs of hypothermia. Seek medical attention immediately.

• Gray, white or yellow skin discoloration, numbness or waxy skin are symptoms of frostbite. Seek immediate medical attention.

• In the case of overexposure to freezing temperatures, remove wet clothing and immediately warm the body with a blanket or warm fluids.

Key Web sites:

• Governor's Office of Emergency Services -- http://www.oes.ca.gov

• Red Cross -- http://www.redcross.org

• State Department of Health Services -- http://www.dhs.ca.gov. Source: Yolo County Public Information Office

WARMING CENTERS

For the cold spell predicted for the area through the weekend, Sacramento city and county officials will open four warming centers:

• Ethel MacLeod Hart Multipurpose Senior Center, 915 27th St.;

• Oak Park Community Center, 3425 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd.;

• Clunie Community Center, 601 Alhambra Blvd.;

• Robertson Community Center, 3525 Norwood Ave.

The centers will be open from 8 a.m. until 9 p.m. If needed, those needing shelter at closing time will be transported by Regional Transit to overnight accommodations.

(photo credit: runs_with_scissors )

technorati tags:, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Monday, January 08, 2007

Software implementation failures

Here's another weblog on analysis of software implementation failures, to see what we can do to reduce that outcome.

Rearranging the Deck Chairs

by author Michael Krigsman

All too often, large software projects are like ocean liners in a sea of icebergs, going full speed ahead while the officers and crew focus on narrow technical details. Then Bang! The project smashes into an obstacle that should have been anticipated and suddenly everyone is underwater. The Deck Chairs blog is dedicated to identifying the causes of project failures and suggesting better ways to navigate around the icebergs. The picture across the top banner is the Titanic, inspiration for this blog’s title.

As president of Cambridge Publications, I oversaw the development of tools and methods for improving software implementations on really large, global projects. I’ve worked with SAP, IBM, and a bunch of other companies on these issues. As president of Asuret, I consult to make IT projects more successful and less risky.

I’m also on the Board of Directors (and treasurer) of the America’s Cup Hall of Fame and the Herreshoff Marine Museum, located in Bristol, RI. If you are in the Newport area come take a look. Bristol is a lovely town and the museum is situated right on the water — it’s really worth a visit.

Michael Krigsman

President
Asuret Inc.
Brookline MA USA
617-487-4134 ext. 18


Sample weblog entry from there:

SOA Web Services: Failures on the horizon  (Dec 8, 2006)

In a recent InformationWeek survey, 24% of respondents from large corporations said their SOA projects “fell short of expectations.” Of these, 55% said the reason for failure was that the SOA initiative “introduced more complexity into their IT environment” — ironic , given that one of the benefits touted by SOA proponents is that it reduces complexity.


technorati tags:, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Sunday, January 07, 2007

On being "turing complete"

The Caltech Project Von Neumann defines "Turing complete" this way:

A language is considered Turing Complete if it is able to compute any function computable. It is still counted even if it takes the language a huge amount of time and memory to complete this function. It is somewhat important to try to make the Alife Engine turing complete so that we can try to maximize the possible behaviors evolvable in the creatures.


While Caltech is exploring simulations with artificial life ("a-life"), or self-regulating processes that in my terms are MAWBA ("may as well be alive"), my previous post here used the term Turing Complete regarding the actual, hierarchical, fractal, multi-level ladder thingie on which  humans occupy some middle rung.

As a prior post noted, if we assume, one way or another, that the world around us incorporates some very powerful design patterns, then we would expect recursion and a Turing Complete multi-level emergent computational ability to be one of them, as the Caltech project does for a-life. 

In other words,  we don't want to repeat the mistake Marvin Minsky made regarding perceptrons and single-level neural networks as being incomplete,which set Artificial Intelligence back 15 years.  Minsky, of course, later retracted his error, recognizing that 3 level neural nets can be complete, if they also include feed-forward.

Similarly, it seems silly to continue to explore single or two level versions of  "multilevel models" for human beings in social context (which is all that really matters for public health.) There is solid reason to believe, on general principles, that the emergent, evolving beastie is 3-levels, with feed-forward, or more complex than than.

Because each level can succeed in breaking loose from the levels below it, and taking on a mostly independent life of its own,  there is no way this can be "determined" upwards from "selfish genes."   Only by including vertical feedback and feedforward pathways that span 3 levels, that smear out "causality" via phase-lock loops,  can we achieve Turing completeness, and we should assume "Life" has figured that much out by now.

Especially, if even artificial life models at Caltech have figured that much out.

Conclusion - it is not possible to find a solid "causal pathway" from Dawkins and Darwinian evolution with "selfish genes" until you look upwards and include at least two higher levels of hierarchical organizational groupings, that are co-evolving independently. That whole gemisch is perfectly capable then, of being Turing complete, and figuring out what even most CEO's of US corporations can't -- that global altruism is a higher-level and more fit, longer-range better solution than local selfishness.

In the long run, in the large scale picture, we are all collaborating, not competing, and our co-evolution is mutually beneficial.   Coherent solutions to the US Army problems require coherence and integrity;  coherent solutions to nuclear power plant operations or aircraft cockpits require coherence and integrity across multiple levels of management, not just a single level.    Then, innovative solutions are visible.  Then, we are all Turing complete.

So, in that view, there is no surprise that humans are hard-wired to have emotions that drive them to altruism or larger group survival pathways, away from local dog-eat-dog competition models. The savage battle for local fitness misunderstanding is based on not seeing the higher levels that are operating in parallel defining the rules for the locally "selfish" interactions.

Also, in this view, it is not at all surprising to find massive depression and even the human version of apoptosis (cell suicide) resulting from philosophies (such as materialism) or behaviors that cause "individual" humans to break "free" of the "bonds" to other humans and the larger computational engine and be "rugged individuals."

Computer networking people figured out last century that networks of collaborating smaller computers have massively more power than trying to make a single "supercomputer".  LIfe doesn't try to make an "amoeba" with a single-cell that spans the earth - a model that doesn't scale up.   Life transitions to "multicelluar" forms at or around this point.  That's what humans need to see as the design pattern that works.

We need tightly knit teams that work as one, and there is where humans are hard-wired to find joy, happiness, fulfilment, and the abilty to crank out products that fill the bottom line.







technorati tags:, , , , , , , ,

Positive Psych - Happiness 101

D.T. Max has an 11-page piece on the Positive Psychology movement, titled Happiness 101 in the New York Times magazine section today. (Jan 7, 2007)

The growing field is the area of specialization of Martin Seligman

Seligman, who at 54 had just been elected president of the American Psychological Association and was renowned for his hard science — most of his research had been in depression — decided to put his considerable talents into finding out “what made life worth living.”

Seligman’s book, “Authentic Happiness,” published in 2002, lays out the field’s fundamental principles and has been translated into nearly 20 languages. Last year’s annual positive-psychology summit in Washington attracted hundreds of academics working in the field or interested in doing so

Excerpts:

...the various building blocks of positive psychology: optimism, gratitude, mindfulness, hope, spirituality.

Positive psychology brings the same attention to positive emotions (happiness, pleasure, well-being) that clinical psychology has always paid to the negative ones (depression, anger, resentment). Psychoanalysis once promised to turn acute human misery into ordinary suffering; positive psychology promises to take mild human pleasure and turn it into a profound state of well-being.

“Under certain circumstances, people — they’re not desperate or in misery — they start to wonder what’s the best thing life can offer,” says Martin Seligman, one of the field’s founders, who heads the Positive Psychology Center at the University of Pennsylvania. Thus positive psychology is not only about maximizing personal happiness but also about embracing civic engagement and spiritual connectedness, hope and charity.

A nice review of Barbara Fredrickson's "broaden and build" theory is presented, with a review of he work in Michigan with Compuware to improve productivity.

For Fredrickson, this was evidence that positive emotions lead to broader thinking. The participants were also tested for what is called global-local-visual processing. When asked to look at a design on a computer of three squares arranged in a triangle, those who had watched happy-making film clips tended to see the broader pattern — i.e. the triangular pattern — while the angrier subjects saw only the squares. (The neutral ones saw some of each.)

Incidentally, a nice piece by Fredrickson in Science and Theology News is still cached and can be found with a Google search on "Barbara Fredrickson broaden and build."  Even from the title "Joy and love genetically encoded"  it's clear she's struggling with how to fit altruism and positive traits into the reductionistic Darwinian model that tries to make everything explainable by Dawkins' "selfish genes" - that is, a single-dimensional fitness-for-survival  function operating at a single level of biolife.

I've argued here before that a multi-level model with co-evolving fitness functions is almost certainly a stronger model, and, for those who care, "Turing complete."
(see my prior posts "The God Delusion by Dawkins", "Looks like UP to me" and "Technical comment on up Darwin and Dawkins")

The Times skips over most of the work on the impact of positive psychology on team performance and on high-reliablilty organizations.  See my post "Virtue drives the bottom line" for references to academic studies in that area.

Some more tibdits from the Times article today:

Participants contrasted the “hedonic treadmill” with “the meaningful life.”

...researchers at the University of Kentucky  ... showed positive emotions correlated to a 10-year increase in life span, greater even than the differential between smokers and nonsmokers.

Seligman’s Web site, authentichappiness.org, has a 240-question test to help determine whether your gift is for creativity, bravery, love or something else.

Over time, positive psychologists, led by Christopher Peterson, settled on 24 virtues — or character strengths, as they prefer to call them — including courage, modesty, spirituality and leadership.

And some criticisms

critics are often most disturbed by what they perceive as its prescriptive nature. “There is way too little evidence of stable, long-term benefits — and lack of harm — to justify large-scale incorporation of positive psychology programs into schools

[is it just:] If you are not optimistic, fake it.

But where Maslow and Rogers relied primarily on qualitative research for their theories, Seligman and his colleagues hope to establish positive psychology — and thus the nature of happiness itself — on firmer scientific ground.

Indeed, the sectlike feel of positive psychology can be hard to shake off

Two criticisms as troubling as the problem of positive psychology’s religiosity are 1) that it is not new — psychology always cared about happiness and 2) that the publicity about the field has gotten ahead of the science, which may be no good anyway.



technorati tags:, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,