The Road to Ruin

I think we're standing way too close to the problem to see the root-causes here and address them.

We've leapt to the conclusion that this is some sort of financial problem as a cause, versus as a symptom, and are trying to put out the symptom without addressing the cause - sort of the definition of "quack medicine" -- and just as dangerous.

While some politicians have mastered the art of managing pressure and bullying, we seem to have very little to zero actual civil, grown-up discussion of what's gone wrong here. I would suggest this traces back directly to our cultural disdain for the skill of actually reasoning together and listening to each other, and of seeking dis-confirming evidence before betting the farm on a proposed solution.

We argue over whether this expert is better than that expert, and fail to wonder why, collectively, 300,000,000 people can't work together better to find solutions to common problems. It's as if we've given up on that approach, and I challenge that.

Abe Lincoln is reported to have said that if he had 10 minutes to chop down a tree, he'd spend the first 5 minutes sharpening his axe. Our "axe", our social problem-assessing and decision-making process, is clearly way too dull. Thousands of people saw this coming and they were dismissed, ignored, and trampled, with the results we see around us now.

This doesn't just affect the "financial" crisis, it affects how we react to global warming, pandemics, pollution, water shortages, urban crime, unemployment, health care, etc. It's CENTRAL to all of those.

And yet, how many people recall a required course, anywhere in their education from K-12 to PhD, in "relationships" or "working together" ?

Instead we get brilliant "quants" working alone, building models that need the air of peer review, and that take out our banks.

People - listen up. It doesn't matter what else we fix -- if we don't fix how we (don't) reason together on hard problems, we are done for by one of the other problems we ignored or worsened to solve this one.

We don't even know how to address the problem of what problem to address, and what to spend our scarce dollars attempting to accomplish.

But there is such an incredible void and vacuum in the area of actually reasoning together that almost any progress would have huge leverage on so many different fronts.

In the darkest night, even a single candle casts amazing light.

That's where we should be looking now -- at least some of us, and with some urgency and with great attention to starting a national dialog on this subject.

further reading: The Road to Error (illustrated)