Thursday, March 15, 2007

Sam Harris on "God's Dupes"

Sam Harris is one of the 3 major writersfor the "New Atheists", along with Richard Dawkins (of Oxford, author of "The God Delusion" and "The Blind Watchmaker") and Daniel Dennett. A summary of the movement is given in Wired News "The Crusade Against Religion." Below is an article by Sam Harris from today's LA Times. ( As always, I'm not advocating this position, only describing it.)

God's dupes
Moderate believers give cover to religious fanatics -- and are every bit as delusional.
By Sam Harris
SAM HARRIS is the author of "The End of Faith: Religion, Terror and the Future of Reason" and "Letter to a Christian Nation."

March 15, 2007

PETE STARK, a California Democrat, appears to be the first congressman in U.S. history to acknowledge that he doesn't believe in God. In a country in which 83% of the population thinks that the Bible is the literal or "inspired" word of the creator of the universe, this took political courage....

Of course, no religion is monolithic. Within every faith one can see people arranged along a spectrum of belief. Picture concentric circles of diminishing reasonableness: At the center, one finds the truest of true believers — the Muslim jihadis, for instance, who not only support suicidal terrorism but who are the first to turn themselves into bombs; or the Dominionist Christians, who openly call for homosexuals and blasphemers to be put to death.

Outside this sphere of maniacs, one finds millions more who share their views but lack their zeal. Beyond them, one encounters pious multitudes who respect the beliefs of their more deranged brethren but who disagree with them on small points of doctrine — of course the world is going to end in glory and Jesus will appear in the sky like a superhero, but we can't be sure it will happen in our lifetime.

Out further still, one meets religious moderates and liberals of diverse hues — people who remain supportive of the basic scheme that has balkanized our world into Christians, Muslims and Jews, but who are less willing to profess certainty about any article of faith. Is Jesus really the son of God? Will we all meet our grannies again in heaven? Moderates and liberals are none too sure.

Those on this spectrum view the people further toward the center as too rigid, dogmatic and hostile to doubt, and they generally view those outside as corrupted by sin, weak-willed or unchurched.

The problem is that wherever one stands on this continuum, one inadvertently shelters those who are more fanatical than oneself from criticism...

There is no question that many people do good things in the name of their faith — but there are better reasons to help the poor, feed the hungry and defend the weak than the belief that an Imaginary Friend wants you to do it. Compassion is deeper than religion. As is ecstasy. It is time that we acknowledge that human beings can be profoundly ethical — and even spiritual — without pretending to know things they do not know.

Let us hope that Stark's candor inspires others in our government to admit their doubts about God. Indeed, it is time we broke this spell en masse. Every one of the world's "great" religions utterly trivializes the immensity and beauty of the cosmos. Books like the Bible and the Koran get almost every significant fact about us and our world wrong. Every scientific domain — from cosmology to psychology to economics — has superseded and surpassed the wisdom of Scripture.

Everything of value that people get from religion can be had more honestly, without presuming anything on insufficient evidence. The rest is self-deception, set to music.

Navy and Army Hospitals compared

Md. Naval Hospital Staff Reports 'Fatigue'
Workload, Poor Maintenance Driving Workers Away, Some Testify at Hearing

By Steve Vogel
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 15, 2007; B01

A doctor at the National Naval Medical Center yesterday warned a Pentagon review panel that medical staff at the Bethesda hospital are overworked and suffering from "compassion fatigue."

Even as relatives of injured Marines universally praised the medical care and treatment of families in Bethesda, the doctor and several other current and former employees spoke of problems with the workload, maintenance and facilities at the sprawling complex...

Lt. Cmdr. Brandt E. Rice, a family medicine practitioner at the naval hospital, testified that doctors are saddled with too many administrative duties, lack enough time to devote to patients and face bureaucratic hassles. "My vocalness about this need has been met by some degree of resistance and also retaliation," Rice said.

Piles said ... "We have struggled for two years with a contractor who can't keep up..."

Sandra Bonifant, ...complained of an effort to get a handrail installed to help disabled veterans go up steps into a building on the hospital campus. "We were strong-armed into letting it drop," she testified.

After the hearing, panel members said they were struck by contrasts with the testimony heard the previous day at Walter Reed.

A number of speakers at the Army hospital praised the medical care, but many witnesses told of problems with outpatient care and lack of support given to family members. No such complaints were heard at Bethesda...

No Walter Reed staff members volunteered to testify during Tuesday's hearing. "We really need to understand that difference," Charles Roadman, a retired Air Force lieutenant general and panel member, said of the contrast to the Bethesda hospital hearing.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Spiritual solutions for technical problems

If we reframe an intractible "technical" problem as a "spiritual" problem, it can reveal a hidden solution.

Here's an example. I worked in a lab once where we had special glass vials we needed to do our tests. The supplier was back-ordered over 3 months and we ran out and were stopped cold. So, this was clearly a "technical problem." Then I found out that there were crates of these vials 40 feet away in the next lab down the hallway. But, we weren't allowed to use those, because that researcher had a long-standing gripe with out lab's boss over some incident 10 years prior, and they weren't on talking terms.

The point is, solving the underlying spiritual problem of lack of reconciliation of these two researchers was an alternative way to get our lab functioning again.

This is not an isolated case. In fact, when you think about it, there are many "techical" and "economic" problems in our own lives that would go away if we addressed some interpersonal spiritual issues that are in the way. I hate to think of what fraction of corporate and national resources are spent trying to make it possible for us to avoid facing our broken personal relationships and dysfunctional organizations.

What brought this to mind this morning was an article in the New York Times on new $400 antennas that increase your cell phone's reception.

Coaxing More Bars Out of That Cellphone

New York Times
March 1, 2007
Garbled conversations and dropped calls are the bane of cellphone users — not to mention the dead zones where calls cannot go through to begin with. But some recent products are designed to overcome these annoyances, improve cellular reception, and, in some cases, even extend coverage....
So, probably, if everyone spent an additional $400, we could get better reception. That would be the "technical solution."

Take a minute before rushing on and consider what a "spiritual solution" would be. Hint - it would involve cooperation instead of fragmentation between people, with each person trying to reinvent the wheel on their own.

Here's another clue. Glance at my prior post
One laptop per child - grid computing for the poor.

The New York Times covered this yesterday (november 30,2006) in an article "For $150, Third world laptop stirs a Big Debate" by John Markoff. Compare to "Microsoft would put Poor Online by Cellphone", also by John Markoff, Jan 30, 2006.

According to Markoff's article yesterday "Five countries — Argentina, Brazil, Libya, Nigeria and Thailand — have made tentative commitments to put the computers into the hands of millions of students, with production in Taiwan expected to begin by mid-2007." Much of the rest of the article deals with pricing, technology, and competing views about the impact of this computer on education.

That misses the most important aspect of this, in my mind, which Markoff mentions near the end of the piece:

One factor setting the project apart from earlier efforts to create inexpensive computers for education is the inclusion of a wireless network capability in each machine.

The project leaders say they will employ a variety of methods for connecting to the Internet, depending on local conditions. In some countries, like Libya, satellite downlinks will be used. In others, like Nigeria, the existing cellular data network will provide connections, and in some places specially designed long-range Wi-Fi antennas will extend the wireless Internet to rural areas.

When students take their computers home after school, each machine will stay connected wirelessly to its neighbors in a self-assembling “mesh” at ranges up to a third of a mile. In the process each computer can potentially become an Internet repeater, allowing the Internet to flow out into communities that have not previously had access to it.

The distinction between "computers" and "cell phones" has become almost irrelevant these days, so what does this suggest.

It suggests that a different way of connecting cell-phones to the national grid would be to have them able to self-assemble a communications grid, in real-time, borrowing a little spare capacity from any other phone or computer in the neighborhood.

In other words, I don't really need my phone to be in line-of-sight to a cell-phone tower if the phones cooperate and silently set up their own relay chain behind the scenes. My phone can talk to my upstairs neighbor, which talks to the phone 2 floors above that, all the way to the top of the building, where someone's phone can talk to another distant building's phones which in turn are in line of sight of the cell-phone tower on the other side of the mountain. Voila, I have a path for my call.

We don't need new $400 antennas for each cell phone - we only need the existing cell phones to talk to each other.

Aside from finding a clear path, the phones could also automatically deliver much more power. This is the sort of thing that radio astronomers use, to connect 20 different radio antenna "dishes" across the world into a single virtual antenna that can be "virtually" pointed directly at the target, delivering thousands of times the effective power because it all goes the right direction instead of off into space.

The downside is that different phones and phone systems and even people would have to be willing to let "their" phone participate as part of a larger social grid. The upside is that this would work even in some Katrina type disaster, and auto-assemble a pathway from the existing phones to a cell-tower or satellite that could relay calls out of the disaster area.

The changes are essentially all in software and procedures. Probably this could be done with existing phones today, if we, collectively, decided that's what we wanted to do.
Without a single new cell-phone tower, or a single dollar being spent for new hardware or phones, everyone in the country could get 100 times better service.
There are no "technical" reasons we couldn't do that.
There are only "spiritual" reasons we put up with that make us dysfunctional.

This kind of problem is very widespread, especially in the USA today, where cooperation and collaboration seem to have gone the way of the phonograph in many places. We're all working overtime, way more hours than any other country, trying to make the payments on purely technical solutions that we mistakenly think we need to solve our issues.

Quoting my earlier post, looking at the chaos caused by lack of communications following Katrina in New Orleans,

By W. David Stephenson International Conference on Complex Systems June 26, 2006
So we know that emergent behavior is possible even under the trying circumstances of a terrorist attack or a natural disaster.

... Equally important but less understood by decision makers, unlike landline phones or the broadcast media, these devices are themselves increasing networked, self-organizing, and self-healing. In many cases, such as mesh networks that were originally developed for the military in battlefield conditions and now are being used by civilians, the networks don't require any kind of external networking: simply turn them on and the network self organizes.

I am convinced that such a networked homeland security strategy is feasible today, using existing technology and requiring much less time to create and deploy than some of the costly, dedicated emergency communications systems government is creating. Equally important, by facilitating those three qualities needed in a crisis: flexibility, robustness, and self-organizing, it could transform the general public from hopeless victims, waiting for aid that may never come, into self-reliant components of the overall response. To paraphrase Dr. King, which will it be, chaos, or community? [emphasis added]
On a larger scale, communications is just one problem we saw in New Orleans. Tens of thousands of cars left the city with one passenger, while a hundred thousand people were stranded without transportation. Food and water were hoarded not shared.

One explicit principle of the Baha'i faith is where this line of thinking ends up, and it's a lesson
that Michigan and the USA need to pay attention to. The economic downturns can be viewed
as "technical" problems, yes, but that hides the much closer, much cheaper solutions, that don't
require new technology.

PRINCIPLES OF THE BAHÁ'Í FAITH

#10 -
A spiritual solution to the economic problem.




I'm reminded of the monkey traps used in some countries. A cocoanut has a hole cut into the side, just large enough for a monkey's paw to fit into it. Then the cocoanut is chained to the ground, and some delicious nuts put inside it. Then we wait. The monkey comes along, smells the nuts, reaches in, grabs a handful, and then can't get it's overstuffed hand back out the hole. At that point people can just walk over and drop a net on the monkey, who will refuse to let go of the nuts that are "so close."

Americans have this fixation on having to fix everything with individual solutions - everyone has to have their own car, their own house, their own everything -- and even the phones or computer lines, if not being used, can't be shared with others for a whole variety of invented "legal" reasons.

There's a lesson here. In our case, it's not some guy with a net coming after us, it's the entire economy going south on us, loss of jobs, etc. Within each company, there's a collapse of innovation, all to protect this competitive concept and a myth of rugged individualism, that probably was never true. Like our SUV's that dress like they're going off-road, but never do, we have these attitudes that dress like we don't need anyone else to survive, but we do.

If we admitted that, and went from there, most of the rest of these problems could be solved. It's like everyone is trying to be the most fanatastic word or note in the universe, and forgetting that great books and great music need lots of different words and notes to work.

We need each other. We don't need more technology to make up for our lack of friends. We need to help each other learn how to make friends again. It seems to be a lost art for at least one in five people in the USA today. We should fix that, then see how much "depression" is left.





Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Happy Ayyam-i-Ha !


Happy Ayyam-i-Ha!


What is Ayyam-i-Ha?
"Baha'is celebrate the festival of Ayyam-i-Ha each year from sunset on Feb. 25 to sunset of March 1 as a preparation for the Fast, which begins March 2 and ends March 20. During Ayyam-i-Ha, members of the Faith perform acts of charity, give gifts to friends and family, and attend social gatherings."
(from http://www.bahai.us/node/74 )
My gifts to my readers:

Here's a shortcut to the most uplifting, positive posts from this weblog to start your new year right! Let me know if I missed one of your favorites!

The Importance of Social Relationships (short)

1) For a human to sustain peak performance, it is not enough to engage the brain; we have to engage the heart.
Positive Deviance - (the new business model)
What I find refreshing and inspirational is that actual companies and business schools are even starting to think about humans in positive way
Virtue drives the bottom line (many references)

Religion, business, and science are often depicted as in conflict, so it catches the attention when all three of them agree on something. That something needs to be investigated.

Pathways to Peace ( Link to a beautiful multimedia show on virtues)
a beautiful musical slide show of virtues, quotes and Nature to inspire hope and action. Produced for the Pathways to Peace Project
Houston, we have a problem! (On the need for teamwork and consultation)
An "Interdisciplinary" team is a very different animal. It assumes that the problem is irreducibly large, and cannot be broken down into a set of somethings that one person can manage.
Importance of Social Relationships (with references)
A story is told of two stone-masons working on a huge church in Europe, one with great work and one with sloppy work that needed to be torn down and redone. When asked what they were doing, the poor one said: "I'm building a wall." The other said: "I'm building a cathedral." The spiritual issue matters so much it hurts, in ways science doesn't begin to grasp at the moment.
You can say that again! (On the importance of saying positive things twice)

The end of our exploring (T. S. Eliot)
T.S. Eliot, in the Four Quartets , said
We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.



Baha'i US Center












Baha'i World Center

Sunday, February 25, 2007

National Patient Safety Awareness Week

NPSF Patient Safety Awareness Week
March 4-10, 2007
Posters, ideas, activities

National Patient Safety Foundation
http://www.npsf.org/
Conference ("Congress") : May 3-4, 2007 Washington DC
Journal: Journal of Patient Safety ($180+ /year)
==================
IHI.org
Institute for Healthcare Improvement
http://www.ihi.org/ihi
All improvement, some focus on safety
===========================
American Health Quality Association
Patient Safety Initiatives
And List of various state QIO's
The American Health Quality Association represents Quality Improvement Organizations (QIOs) and professionals working to improve the quality of health care in communities across America. QIOs share information about best practices with physicians, hospitals, and nursing homes. Working together with health care providers, QIOs identify opportunities and provide assistance for improvement.

MPRO - "The Michigan QIO"
http://www.mpro.org/
"MPRO, the Michigan QIO, is an active member of the Michigan Health and Safety Coalition, comprised of health care plans such as Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (BCBSM), health care providers, medical associations, state agencies such as the Michigan Department of Community Health, as well as the three major auto companies and auto unions" (from AHQA's site)

"Through our Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services contract, MPRO serves as Michigan's Quality Improvement Organization (QIO) and assists Michigan's health care providers." (MPRO's self description)

========================
Michigan Health and Safety Coalition
2006 Conference Presentations
The 2007 Michigan Health and Safety Coalition Annual Patient Safety Conference will be held for two full days on Wednesday, March 28 and Thursday, March 29 at the Somerset Inn, Troy, MI
Participating Organizations (Go to MHSC for working links)

>>Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan

DaimlerChrysler Corporation

Ford Motor Company

General Motors Corporation

International Union, UAW

>>Michigan Association of Health Plans

Michigan Consumer Health Care Coalition

Michigan Department of Community Health

Michigan Education Special Services Association

Michigan Health & Hospital Association

Michigan Nurses Association

Michigan Osteopathic Association

MPRO

Michigan Pharmacists Association

Michigan State Medical Society


====================
GDAHC - Greater Detroit Area Health Council -
http://www.gdahc.org/programs_resources.asp
Southeast Michigan Regional Healthcare Coalition

GDAHC presents the following list:

Community Resources
Links to Local Community Resources.

The Greater Detroit Area Health Council is pleased to provide links to some of the area's top community resources for healthcare related information.

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ)
Advancing Excellence in Health Care. A mission to improve the quality, safety, efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare for all Americans. Information from AHRQ’s research helps people make more informed decisions and improve the quality of health care services.
John M. Eisenberg Building, 540 Gaither Road, Rockville, MD 20850
Phone: 301-427-1364
http://www.ahrq.gov

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Healthcare 411 Audio Newscast Series
The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, has a new audio newscast series to help keep you informed of the Agency's latest health care research findings, news, and information. AHRQ is the lead Federal agency in the effort to improve patient safety and reduce medical errors. Go to www.healthcare411.ahrq.gov to hear the newscasts through your computer or download them to a portable digital player such as an iPod®.
John M. Eisneberg Building, 540 Gaither Road, Rockville, MD 20850
Phone: 301-427-1364
http://healthcare411.ahrq.gov

American Red Cross - Southeastern Michigan
American Red Cross of Southeastern Michigan - serving Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.
100 Mack Avenue P.O. Box 33351, Detroit, MI 48232
Phone: 313-833-4440
http://www.semredcross.org

Detroit Wayne County Health Authority
The Detroit Wayne County Health Authority is a collaboration between the city of Detroit, County of Wayne, the State of Michigan, health providers and community members to improve the health of the citizens of Detroit and Wayne County. Its mission is to coordinate efforts to meet the health needs of the uninsured and under-insured residents in Detroit and Wayne County by assuring access and improving health status of all people.

Phone: 313-874-7443
http://www.dwcha.org

Michigan Health and Safety Coalition
The Michigan Health and Safety Coalition (MH&SC) is a collaborative quality improvement effort focused on improving patient safety in Michigan.
27000 W. 11 Mile Road, Mail Code: B713, Southfield, MI 48034
Phone: 248-448-6266
http://www.mihealthandsafety.org

Michigan Steps Up
Michigan Steps Up is a program of the Michigan Department of Community Health established by Surgeon General Kimberlydawn Wisdom.Step 1. Move More. Step 2. Eat Better. Step 3. Don't Smoke.
MDCH -- Office of the Surgeon General, Captial View, 7th Floor, 201 Townsend, Lansing, MI 48913
Phone: 517-373-3500
http://www.michigan.gov

National Business Coalition on Health
The National Business Coalition on Health (NBCH) is a national, non-profit, membership organization of employer-based health coalitions. NBCH and its members are dedicated to value-based purchasing of health care services through the collective action of public and private purchasers.

Phone: 202-775-9300
http://www.nbch.org

Physician Survey Data 2005
Released by the Michigan Department of Community Health.
Washington Square Building, 7th Floor, 109 Michigan Avenue, Lansing, MI 48913
Phone: 517-373-3500
http://www.mhc.org/mhc_images/physiciansurvey2005.pdf

Prescription Relief
Prescription Relief is a community service program that increases access to prescription drugs for low-income residents. Through the program, maintenance prescription drugs are available for $8 per prescription, per month for eligible residents. Seniors enrolled in the Medicare Rx Program are not eligible to participate.
5555 Glendon Court, Dublin, OH
Phone: 1-866-378-4686
http://www.prescriptionrelief.com

United Way - Southeastern Michigan
United Way for Southeastern Michigan - serving Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.
1212 Griswold, Detroit, MI 48226
Phone: 313-226-9200
http://www.uwcs.org

ACGME - Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education
http://www.acgme.org/acWebsite/home/home.asp



Articles
Consumers as partners - Martin Hatlie JD
From Patient Safety and Quality Healthcare
www.psqh.com

To date, almost all patient safety reform agendas [ in the USA ] have marginalized consumer input. ...These approaches fail to appreciate that not all, but many consumers are intelligent, fully-functioning adults... Indeed, at this moment in history some consumers have been trained and work in industries significantly ahead of healthcare in understanding organizational risk management, systems-based quality improvement, high-reliability performance, teamwork, and communication in complex, dynamic, human enterprises.

... Other developed countries appear to be moving forward significantly faster [than the USA] on implementation. The UK, Australia, and Canada already have patient safety authorities in place ... In addition, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a World Alliance for Patient Safety in October of this year [2004] dedicated to "bringing significant benefits to patient sin countries rich and poor, developed and developing, in all corners of the globe(WHO,2004)" Under the leadership of Sir Liam Donaldosn, MSC MD,chief medical officer of England, the WHO Alliance includes six action ares, including a global challenge to reduce healthcare-associated infection in 2005-2006 and, notably, a Patient for Patient Safety initiative that actually relies on consumers to develop and leadimplementation of its objectives.

Progress elsewhere may be partially explained by structural differences..., less ...litigation ... [and] leadership...[ and the role of public health.]

JCAHO is also poised to play a key role in coordinating WHO patient safety work in the U.S.

World Health Organization
http://www.who.int/patientsafety/en/
World Alliance for Patient Safety [WHO]
http://www.who.int/patientsafety/about/en/index.html

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Avian flu confirmed in England - in turkeys

Avian flu (H5N1) has made it to England.

This raises again the question I addressed earlier today in Home Monitoring Industry, of wishing an emergency room or other surveillance unit could , upon releasing a questionable case, leave an electronic tether on them to be notified if things improve or get worse following release.

Deadly Bird Flu confirmed in BritishTurkeys
New York Times
Alan Cowell
Feb 4, 2007
excerpt:

LONDON, Feb. 3 — British authorities confirmed Saturday that an outbreak of bird flu discovered among turkeys at a poultry farm in eastern Britain had been caused by the deadly A(H5N1) strain, which has killed humans in other parts of the world.

The disease has killed 2,500 turkeys near Lowestoft since Thursday, making it the biggest outbreak of the strain reported in Britain since concern about its global spread began to take root in 2003.

An additional 160,000 birds will now be culled in an effort to contain the outbreak, government officials said.


No immediate risk

Fred Landeg, a senior government veterinarian, said there was no public health concern. “Avian influenza is a disease of birds,” he said, “and whilst it can pass very rarely and with difficulty to humans, this requires extremely close contact with infected birds, particularly feces.”

How did it get to England?

The disease is commonly transmitted to farmed birds by infected migrating birds.

But since 2003, 164 people, most of them in Asia, have died of the A(H5N1) strain, and authorities worry that the virus could easily become transmissible among humans to create a global pandemic. About 200 million birds have either died or been killed in the same period.

On Saturday, the World Health Organization confirmed that the strain had killed a 22-year-old Nigerian woman, making her the first known human fatality in sub-Saharan Africa, Reuters reported.

Tests carried out at a laboratory in London confirmed the findings of Nigerian health authorities, who announced on Wednesday that the woman had died after catching the virus from an infected chicken.

Incidentally, we note that the migratory patterns of birds is heavily influenced by the climate, so all of this may be a downstream effect of global warming and human-induced instability in the plantet's weather.

South Dakota hospital gets $400 million gift

Global competition for pediatrics business increases:

From today's New York Times
Hopes Soar after Record Hospital Gift of $400 Million

by Stephanie Strom

excerpt:

Now, T. Denny Sanford, a low-key billionaire who made his home and fortune here, will help sustain the state’s economic boom with a $400 million gift to the Sioux Valley Hospitals and Health System, the state’s largest employer. Hospital officials hope the gift — the largest ever to a hospital, according to the Center for Philanthropy at Indiana University — will help transform Sioux Valley Hospitals, which will change its name to Sanford Health, into a national institution that will eclipse Johns Hopkins and the Mayo Clinic.

“He told me he doesn’t want this to be just another Mayo,” said Kelby K. Krabbenhoft, Sioux Valley’s chief executive.

It has four stated goals: to build five pediatric clinics around the country; to expand research, especially in pediatrics; to build a health care campus with more than 20 separate facilities, and to identify a promising line of medical research and follow it to a cure, much the same way John D. Rockefeller’s money found a cure for yellow fever and Bill Gates is searching for a cure for H.I.V./AIDS.

Home monitoring industry - and privacy

As more and more people need to monitor elderly parents , Information Technology is providing ways to do that remotely. Would parents want the same setup to track their children away at college?

This is beginning to look a lot like strategic IT, use of "technology mediated collaboration" to cut health care costs and dramatically transform the way hospitals think of themselves and provide quality control over extensive services.

Or, would anyone want something similar to keep track of a friend or family member who was an inpatient in a hospital. There's an interesting question. Would hospitals encourage this constant vigilance from outsiders or discourage it? Given the shortage in nursing care in many places, maybe this is destined to become a new feature of in-patient hospital care.

For that matter, maybe no one should even go for an out-patient visit without being wired up and having a remote group of friends and family virtually along for the ride, aware of everything being done or not done. I can recall personally going to a large chain hospital emergency room for chest pains, being looked at briefly and put into a solitary closed room, and not seeing another human being for the next 80 minutes. I would have really preferred that someone at least would know if I fell over. The reason it's called "observation unit" is because someone is supposed to be "observing" the patient and would know if they collapsed.

Again, we have technological capacity (a remote TV video monitor) versus privacy concerns competing for more visibility versus less visiblity. These issues need to be addressed.

It raises the question as well as to whether some "observation unit" patients couldn't be released early, if heavily remotely monitored, or if some observation patients taking up Emergency Department beds couldn't be physically sent home, or to the cafeteria, or anywhere except taking up a bed, while they were still in "electronic tether" range and being monitored remotely. That could free up beds for people who really need them.

Today's New York Times has an article
In Elder Care, Signing On Becomes a Way to Drop By
Christine Larson
Feb 4, 2007

CONNIE ARAPS, 57, of Delray Beach, Fla., thought that her father, Tom Araps, 87, was managing just fine on his own. But when he came to stay with her for a few months in 2005, she found that he was skipping meals, sleeping all morning and not taking daily walks.

To satisfy her father’s desire to live alone, but to ease her mind about his safety, Ms. Araps found an apartment for him less than a mile from her home and had it equipped with QuietCare, a home health alarm system provided by ADT Security Services.

She drops by his apartment often, and logs into a Web site several times a day to check on him. Motion sensors track how often Mr. Araps opens the refrigerator, when he gets out of bed and how long he stays in the bathroom. If his normal patterns vary, the alarm company alerts her.

One day, the company called her to say that no one had entered or left the apartment all day. It turned out that a home health aide had failed to show up, and her father had not received his diabetes medication. Ms. Araps rushed over and made sure that her father took his pills.

“We are so pleased with all the technology,” she said. “I don’t think we would have let him live alone without it.” On the market since August, the QuietCare system costs $199 to install, and monitoring starts at $79.95 a month. In addition to the QuietCare system, Ms. Araps had the alarm company install video cameras showing the floors and the foot of her father’s bed, so she could see if he had fallen.

Other items:
* 19 million americans care for someone over age 75, according to National Alliance for Caregiving.
* QuietCare - alrm technology
* Nursing homes have been using this technology for years (peek ahead), and a few allow family members to view the data remotely. More are moving into home versions.
* Not all systems are emergency alarms, according to the Times:

A system called iCare Health Monitoring uses a very different model. It is not meant to serve as an emergency alarm system. Instead, it tries to prevent emergencies by allowing care providers, family members and older people themselves keep track of specific health data, like blood pressure, weight or medications use. Nurses monitor the system, but not around the clock.

Using a small electronic device with a text screen and four input buttons, the system asks a series of daily multiple-choice questions about an older person’s health. Family members or other care providers can view the answers online and look for any telltale changes in health. Available through www.cvs.com and some CVS pharmacy stores since July, the system costs $99 to install and $49.95 a month for monitoring.

Alberta Jackson, 78, of Aurora, Colo., who has chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, uses iCare to track her lung function every day. She spends about eight minutes a day answering questions. Once when she responded that she was not feeling well, a nurse called within minutes to check on her.

A final warning:

While geriatric care managers can offer invaluable help to families, the industry is largely unregulated.

“There are fabulous care managers out there who really know the whole system and are well trained,” Ms. Stone said. “But, buyer, beware: there is no required accreditation.” Only a few states require care managers to be licensed, although care managers who are also nurses or social workers may have state licenses.

Starting in 2010, the National Association of Professional Geriatric Care Managers will require all its members to hold one of four specific certifications in care management or social work.

Geriatric care managers usually charge $80 to $200 an hour, depending on the services provided. The managers can have vastly differing backgrounds, typically in nursing or social work. “If your mother has complex medical problems, you probably want a nurse,” said Andrew Carle, assistant professor and director of the program in assisted living/senior housing administration at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. “If she’s lonely or has social issues, a social worker might be a better fit.”



*But, not everyone wants big brother looking over their shoulder. Interestingly enough,
there was another article in the Times today on the far end of the Privacy spectrum:
States Oppose National Driver's Licence

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A revolt against a national driver's license, begun in Maine last month, is quickly spreading to other states.

The Maine Legislature on Jan. 26 overwhelmingly passed a resolution objecting to the Real ID Act of 2005. The federal law sets a national standard for driver's licenses and requires states to link their record-keeping systems to national databases.

Within a week of Maine's action, lawmakers in Georgia, Wyoming, Montana, New Mexico, Vermont and Washington state also balked at Real ID. They are expected soon to pass laws or adopt resolutions declining to participate in the federal identification network.

''It's the whole privacy thing,'' said Matt Sundeen, a transportation analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures. ''A lot of legislators are concerned about privacy issues and the cost. It's an estimated $11 billion implementation cost.''

The law's supporters say it is needed to prevent terrorists and illegal immigrants from getting fake identification cards.

States will have to comply by May 2008. If they do not, driver's licenses that fall short of Real ID's standards cannot be used to board an airplane or enter a federal building or open some bank accounts.

About a dozen states have active legislation against Real ID, including Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming.

With reimbursement and regulatory requirements pushing patients out of hospitals sooner,
this becomes more and more of an issue on tracking patients for the first few days after they have left the hospital setting and are transitioning to home care or new medications.

From personal experience again, I know that when a child of mine is released with instructions to me to "keep an eye on her and let us know if anything changes", it exhausts me trying to figure out what level of change constitutes a problem sufficient to drop everything and drive over to the hospital. This is probably a very wide-spread problem.



Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Healthcare IT as strategic a collaboration edge

Thornton A. May had a piece in the Jan 22 Computerworld, on "Why Don't More CIOs become CEOs?'

As he said in I T May have become too Invisible, (Computerworld, May 2005) "The challenge for the discipline is that most of the executives currently involved in such activities don't think of IT as being able to contribute much in the transformation and innovation arena. What's worse, the people who will take those executives' places don't really think about IT people at all."

Public Health shares one major problem with enterprise IT - when it works perfectly, it's perfectly invisible. So we have the "baffling" situation where politicians complain loudly about the total health care bill ($1.7 trillion this year), while ignoring the fact that we currently spend under 2% of that on prevention, and over 98% on heroic repair. The prevention, like a clean water supply, is invisible and taken for granted. The heroic repair garners huge headlines and grateful recipients funding new buildings.

A second problem is one of image. Computing professionals today are concerned about many issues ranging from social dynamics to algorithms for collaboration to design of safe and high-reliable systems, knowledge representation, library science, etc. But the mental image many people have of it is somewhere between "payroll system" and "those people who store my data for me." It's the Rodney Dangerfield phenomenon, and it "don't get no respect" for what it is today, not what it was 30 years ago. The same thing is true in public health - tremendous advances in understanding social dynamics are invisible and public health is viewed as "insurance for poor people."

The orphan of both worlds, health care information technology, is in even a worse boat,
almost completely misunderstood and downplayed by the corporate world, by hospitals,
by public health, and invisible to patients, except when it breaks.

The fairly certain idea that increasing prevention to, say, 5% of the budget would cut downstream repair costs by 50% has close to zero traction. People evolved to be locally-oriented animals, and this "distal causality" concept apparently has no internal template or neural wiring to hang its hat on. People look at it, nod "yes", then go back to what they were doing unchanged.

Many business leaders share the "IT Doesn't Matter" mindset May quoted coming from Harvard's B-School in your June 2003 article " Harvard Flunks IT."



So, here's some thoughts.

First, yes, there's a serious visibility problem for enterprise IT. A perfectly done migration of a thousand servers from Oracle 9 to Oracle 10G will involve a huge amount of effort, and be 100% invisible to the users. The better it's done, the more invisible it is. There is about zero appreciation of how much scurrying under the covers it takes to keep on patching and migrating every component while keeping the visible surface rock solid, stable, and level. There is even less appreciation of long-range planning that avoids problems ever coming to the forefront in the first place.

Second, May said in the Harvard IT piece, "What Carr doesn't seem to understand is that the future is all about the evolution and blurring of the interface between people and our machines." I guess I agree that the entity that is evolving on a global scale now is a hybrid of human and digital components, which are co-evolving and increasingly hard to disentangle.

IT is increasingly shifting on the socio-technical axis from the "technical" end to the "social" end. That has several consequences. When IT attempts to deal with enterprise issues such as privacy, or a decision about what email system to use, the dysfunctions of the social structure are projected onto IT and IT is blamed for the resulting visible problems (see the
Oxford University example below).

Conversely, many people hope to totally avoid having to deal with social dysfunctions in their organizations and hope that somehow, with magic, putting in a new software application will cause their social problems to evaporate. If anything, the reverse is probably true, as people who were comfortable in separate silos of specialty areas suddenly now are force to deal with each other over common lexicons and applications.

Oxford is one step beyond Harvard in the model of many "ships on their own bottoms" (or "silos" in health care), each doing their own thing and refusing to cooperate, almost on general principle. I was looking at Oxford to see, OK, if we were to let academics rule the world, what would it be like?

Oxford University's IT planning documents are on line. Here's the Corporate Plan and the
Draft ICT plan .

Oxford's budget is about $200 million in the hole, each year, and sinking fast. They have heated debates but can't agree on what email system or calendar to use. But, hey, they've only had 1,100 years to sort out how to collaborate. Maybe they should get a 1 year extension on the due date for their paper.

So, it's actually then worse than invisible - IT is selectively visible only when it forces unpleasant and unacceptable social dysfunctions to become visible. Or, in evolutionary terms, IT is slowly applying an evolutionary fitness pressure on the humans to learn how to cooperate and collaborate.

And, if we believe many researchers at B-Schools who I do, in fact, agree with, these changes in culture are pivotal to creating dynamic, productive, high-performance, high-reliability organizations. The literature is becoming quite solid on the crucial role of culture in any organization that wants to produce reliable output under stress, which is pretty much all of us.

So, the large-scale, slowly changing IT infrastructure tends to become invisible to the rapidly changing, short-time-horizon CEO's.

I think one major opportunity here is to revitalize the definition of "IT" to make it much more of a socio-technical endeavor, with much more emphasis on the "socio" part.

In fact, we know that most IT projects fail, and that most of them fail over social dysfunctions in the organizational information gathering, model building, and decision-making processes. An increasing amount of academic research is revealing the distinction between legacy applications that had many individual users, and new applications, such as email or EHR, that require groups of users. All of our hard-won intuition about how single user software, such as tax preparation or a spreadsheet works, doesn't carry over into how mulitple-collaborating-user software operates or crashes and burns. This type of field is studied by Professor Gary Olson's course here at the School of Information in "Technology Mediated Collaboration", ( see http://www.si.umich.edu/research/area.htm?AreaID=3 )

But the electronic health record isn't some passive database, is the problem - it's a matrix that facilitates and forces cooperation and collaboration between doctors in different specialty areas who don't like to work with each other. It's all about what Technorati's Sifry calls "the conversation". This is new generation software where either everyone agrees on how to use it, or it won't work. And there's the new stumbling block that people aren't

But, because mentally, systems such as CPOE (Computerized Physician Order Entry) are viewed as technical challenges, not as socio-technical challenges, the design and development teams don't include cognitive psychologists, social psychologists, or anthropologists, and the social problems that tend to crash such deployment are not only unseen, but almost impossible from that perspective.

It's not one company's fault. The whole US and much of Western Civilization is caught up in the craze, as blazoned on the cover of Time magazine repeatedly, that "Our Technology is What will Save Us!" As I've noted before, this is actually more like what T. S. Eliot noted, in Choruses from The Rock (1934):
They constantly try to escape
From the darkness outside and within
By dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good.

But the man that is shall shadow
The man that pretends to be.
Top Business schools, such as the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, are now discovering the "new" concept that human emotions and psychology and even character and integrity are the keystones around which a solid bottom-line is delivered to shareholders.

The point is that humans are not actually primarily "rational actors" and getting them to all go the same direction is, indeed, worse than "herding cats." Top-down directives by "Deciders" such as Bush don't result in everyone (even the military) saluting and going that way.

Worse, even if humans do try their best to listen, obey, and comply with top-down orders, unless there is room for them to grow as human beings, the experience is more like becoming a member of Star Trek's "Borg" than joining a winning sports team. Unless the heart is engaged, having the mind try to comply doesn't actually work in the long run. Humans are not computers. Feelings matter. "Soft" social factors matter. Virtue affects the bottom line.

Now it's becoming very clear that cooperation and collaboration and high-performance teams are keys to corporate bottom-line success, more so than an internal culture of adversity and competitiveness. Glimmers of this show up in the new "agile" project managment techniques.

But, everywhere, we see the need for small-team support. The Institute of Medicine's key document "Crossing the Quality Chasm" focuses on "microsystems" as the appropriate unit to focus organizational change on - that is, small teams of people who work together to deliver a product or care for a patient. Again, design of systems to facilitate small-group small-team feedback and self-management, smaller-scale dashboards than enterprise size ones, is crucial.

And, yes, virtue drives the bottom line. There's a limit to how high a management pyramid one can build out of self-serving individuals and have the whole thing still function as a healthy unit. If the people are bonded to each other, we can build soaring structures, but if the people basically cut themselves off from each other emotionally and spiritually, we get just a big sand pile that collapses under its own weight.

The serious academic literature is beginning to support that fact, and it's a fact that technology,
by itself, if not socio-technical, cannot cure. There's a corner here we have to recognize and decide, are we a "train" company or are we a "transportation" company -- are we going to fight air travel, or start providing it? Are we going to fight social factor engineering as part of the IT core competencies for the new century, or are we going to embrace it as our new wings?

This is getting way more into Web 2.0 and interactive participation than ever before, and all the power of that, which should be part of "IT", is so far missing from the equation.

What's all that say. It says that the way upwards for CIO's is to move IT back into the strategic core of the business, visibly, by bringing in a new component under the IT banner of IT as the supporting web for social collaboration, small-team functioning, agile programming, etc. That means embracing Web 2.0 participatory interactions, which involves breaking the grip of tight, top-down, theory-X management styles.

This is the same battle agile techniques are fighting from within - to be free to grow and be facilitated, not squashed, squelched, and stomped out. There's a very deep top-down hierarchy legacy history this has to overcome, like any paradigm change. There are also very real examples of where "soft" social factors are fluff, and need to be ignored, that opponents of the new paradigm can rally behind. A solid case needs to be build, slowly, reducing the heated debate.

So, it comes down to a redefinition of the field, as train companies, faced with the arrival of airplanes, had to decide if they were really train companies, or transportation companies.
For health care IT to become strategic, it has to get out of the basement and start demonstrating power at cutting big chunks, on the order of 30% or more, out of the
nation's health care bill.

IT, in my view, is at that juncture. If the field is viewed as "data processing", yes, strategically, it is a commodity. If the field is view as "electronic facilitation through feedback-based shaping of high-performance culture", it moves back into the limelight.

Too many people's mental models of projects such as the CPOE are 95% technical, and 5%, afterthought, social. IT leadership, true leadership, will see that reversed. The job is primarily social re-engineering, changing the conversation, through the leverage handles available surrounding an "IT project".

That's using the hybrid (human and digital) tools at our disposal in the most productive fashion. In my reading, that's what needs to be changed to bring IT back into the leadership circle, and get a new lease on life that's central to evolution of the man-machine hybrid culture ahead of us.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Climate change and avian flu risks

China daily had a photo today of some of the 100,000 migratory geese, ducks, swans, and cranes that are occupying the reservoir in Henan province - apparently an unusual event due to recent warming of the climate in that area.

This is just another example of how unexpected climate changes can alter all the predictive models of how avian species interact with human food and water supplies.

It's also another example of how it is difficult to predict public health epidemiology without tracking what's going on in Asia in general and China in specific, in terms of interactions of birds and people.

China closing on US in number of internet users

According to China Daily, January 24, 2007, the number of internet users in China is
poised to pass the number in the USA within two years. The article goes on:

China is expected to overtake the United States to have the world's largest Internet population within two years, a quasi-government organization said yesterday.

The country had 137 million Internet users by the end of last year, an increase of 23.4 percent year-on-year, according to a biannual report released by the China Internet Networks Information Centre (CNNIC).

"The growth is now gaining much momentum. We are expecting even faster growth in 2007 and 2008 given that Internet penetration now has exceeded 10.5 percent in the country," said Wang.

The CNNIC report found that Internet access in China is going increasingly broadband and mobile. The country had 90.7 million broadband users by 2006, up 41.1 percent year-on-year. And about 17 million mobile phones users are now using their handsets to access the Web.

Mao Wei, director of CNNIC, said an increasingly mobile liifestyle in China could help spark an even bigger Internet boom.

The growth of China's Internet population could get a boost after the country rolls out 3G (third generation) mobile telephony, which promises faster Internet access and downloads of data-heavy services such as videos, the director said.

China had 461 million mobile phone users by the end of 2006, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Information Industry on Monday.

With user penetration hitting 10 percent, the Internet would create a vast array of opportunities for businesses.

Morgan Stanley anticipates escalated industry consolidation in China's Internet sector this year, with "market share shifting to a few market leaders" such as NASDAQ-listed Sina Corp, Sohu.com, Baidu, Hong Kong-listed Tencent and unlisted Alibaba.

Pfizer to close Ann Arbor research facility

According to many news sources, including the New York Times and the Detroit Free Press, Pfizer's worldwide cutbacks announced monday include shutting the entire Ann Arbor research facility, which directly employs 2100 people. Pfizer is also the largest taxpaying company in Ann Arbor.

Detroit Free Press:
Pfizer Job Losses are Blow to Ann Arbor
Jan 23, 2007

Ann Arbor, which has been a bright spot in Michigan's bleak economy, got a taste Monday of what the rest of the state is going through.

About 2,100 jobs will be gone. Pfizer's 2-million-square-foot research hub will become empty....

But many workers are expected to follow their Pfizer jobs to other states. The company plans to transfer up to 70% of the jobs that will be displaced in Ann Arbor.

"I think the worst effect is that it essentially undermines our efforts to diversify our economy away from the auto industry," Grimes said. "We just took it on the chin in the area that we wanted to go into."

The city and state's tax rolls will take a hit, too.

Pfizer is Ann Arbor's largest taxpayer. In 2005, the company paid $4.5 million in taxes to the city, or 6.2% of the city's $72 million in tax revenue. That year the company paid $12.6 million in taxes to state and local governments.



The New York times reported:
Pfizer, Hurt by Rival Drugs, Will Lay off 7800
Jan 23, 2007

Pfizer said yesterday that it would cut 7,800 workers, close several manufacturing and research sites and overhaul its business practices in hopes of coping with competition from cheaper generic drugs and setbacks in developing new products.

The new layoffs are in addition to 2,200 that Pfizer announced last month, when it cut its American sales force by 20 percent. The 10,000 job reductions, involving all parts of the company around the world, account for about 10 percent of Pfizer’s global work force.

The cuts will include closing a plant in Brooklyn that employs 600 people, and research sites in Michigan employing about 2,400 people. [Page C6.]

In the Ann Arbor News, the layoffs were associated with a need for a culture change, although the direct reference to Pfizer was missing.

A critical point here, that is not made explicitly, is that even extraordinarily good research staff can be "neutralized" by a wet-blanket culture that discourages exploration and innovation.

It is not sufficient to have great people, and even great research facilities, which Pfizer did - a company must also have a great innovation culture, which apparently Pfizer did not. If that's true, it's not a reflection on the staff, but on management's failure to shape the culture.

As with the rest of "system thinking", where "blame" is more correctly pointed at "the system" not the hapless worker who was last on the causal chain, we have to ask if closing the research facility is tackling the correct problem. We can recall the worst performing engine manufacturing plant that GM had that was taken over by, I think, Toyota, which changed
under a dozen top people, and became the best performing engine planet in the world.

You have to wonder what would motivate Pfizer top management to care, a broader problem with CEO "compensation" in the USA today. According to the Ann Arbor News, former CEO Hank McKinnell departed in July, under pressure, following a 40 percent slide in Pfizer stock prices - and "left with what could easily be described as a $83 million golden parachute."



The article on page D1 of
The Ann Arbor News
Jan 22, 2007
Pfizer's test: changing the culture
by Mary McDonough

Pfizer has been open about the need to change its bureaucratic culture. Top-ranking officials have often been quoted sayign the company can't cost-cut its wayt o innovation and instead needs to encourage its people on the R&D side to discover new drugs more quickly.

One local life sicences entrepreneur told me [that a Pfizer folks ] aren't encouraged to "think outside the box".

How important is company culture?

Ann Arbor based Denison Consulting, which attempts to quantify exactly that, released its newest study Friday. ...

The Denison Consulting report PR Newswire summary can be found at
HRMarketer.com
Latest Study from Denison Consulting Determines that Companies with High-Performance culture deliver...

ANN ARBOR, Mich., Jan. 25 /PRNewswire/ --

According to the latest research conducted by Denison Consulting, companies that demonstrate higher levels of performance in key areas of organizational culture -- including adaptability, consistency, mission and involvement -- tend to deliver better results in return- on-assets, sales growth and shareholder value.

"It's possible to measure, monitor and influence organizational culture, and we have developed scientifically valid tools to accomplish such vital tasks," said Dan Denison, who co-founded Denison Consulting, along with his business partner Bill Neale, in the 1990s. The company, with headquarters in Ann Arbor, Michigan, also operates offices in Zurich, Switzerland and Shanghai, China.

Experts in organizational development, Denison and Neale have created survey instruments that have been used in North America, Europe and Asia to help businesses improve their results. During the past 10 years, more than 4,000 organizations have polled their employees using the Denison Organizational Culture Survey (DOCS), a tool for diagnosing organizational culture and performance.

Ryan Smerek, a research analyst at Denison Consulting, led the most recent study. He examined data from a sample of 102 companies that had deployed the DOCS survey between 1996 and 2004. Businesses that achieved the best scores in the poll were compared with those earning the lowest scores in the survey. In effect, the top quartile -- or 25 percent of the sample -- was contrasted with the lowest quartile group.

Companies with the best organizational culture scores earned an average return-on-assets of 6.3 percent, vs. 4.5 percent for firms with the lowest organizational scores. The top-quartile firms achieved average, one-year sales growth of 15.1 percent, as compared with .1 percent for the lowest-quartile group. And companies with the best culture scores also led in shareholder value, with average market-to-book values of 440 percent as compared to 350 percent for firms with the lowest culture scores. (A company's market-to-book value is the ratio of the market price of its shares over its book value in total equity.)

"These results represent a dramatic affirmation of the importance of organizational culture, and its link to real-world business results," said Smerek. "The companies that achieved higher scores on mission, consistency, involvement and adaptability earned $6,300 for every $100,000 in assets, while those with lower cultural scores earned $4,500 for every $100,000," he said. "That's a huge difference -- a return-on-assets difference totaling 40 percent."

Researchers at Denison Consulting also took a longer-term look at the 102 companies in the sample. During a three-year period, the firms with the best organizational culture scores significantly outperformed their industry peers, as well as the companies with the lowest organizational culture scores, in all three outcome areas -- return-on-assets, sales growth, and shareholder value.

A previous study by Denison Consulting found that organizations with higher DOCS scores do a better job in satisfying their customers, vs. organizations with lower DOCS scores.

"Organizational culture is extremely important to business success, and the really good news is that it is not a soft science," said Denison. "With valid data on an organization's culture, we can pinpoint areas for improvement and predict the positive business results that are likely to be achieved with the right interventions and action plans."

Information on Dennison Consulting is available on-line. Even from the graphic on that website, one can see they're using the "clash of cultures" model - the circle on the right with 4 colors being the classic logo, as is the logo on the top left of the webpage.

Organizational culture is a core research focus at the University of Michgan's Ross School of Business.

An example of University of Michigan use of the Denison culture survey is available on-line. Slide 28 captures the key ideas:

  • Build the organization around teams, not individuals.
  • Require performance appraisals for everyone.
  • Reward and promote people who build organizational capability.

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Comair 5191 - Confirmation bias and framing

The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) transcript of ill-fated Comair flight 5191 crash upon takeoff at Lexington this last August was just released (January 17th), and one of the interpretations of it supports cognitive issues related to "framing" and "confirmation bias". The CVR transcript is the first one on the list of links here.

Below is a copy of a post I made to a different forum on the subject. "FO" is First Officer, the pilot in the right-hand seat who took over flying once they were taxied to and on the [wrong] runway by the left-hand seat Captain. As noted earlier, the aircraft in question only has nosewheel steering for the left-hand seat, so responsibilities had to be divided this way, even though the FO was going to fly as Pilot in Command (PIC) to Atlanta once taxiing was done.

The focus of this discussion is not on failings of the crew members, but on everything else, the "system factors" that contributed to this situation, the factors that provided the metahorical gun and the ammunition, loaded the gun, cocked the hammer, and handed it to the crewmembers who, at the end of that casual chain, pulled the trigger.

The human errors can be dealt with somewhat by training individuals or crews, but the system factors need to be dealt with by changes to the infrastructure.

And, not a single word of discussion in that 30 minutes on the CVR that the taxiway or runway lights were out - from which I'd guess they had already discussed this and the FO had shared his observation from Friday evening that the Northeast end of runway 22 had no lights working at all. The only time the subject comes up again is mid-roll, after crossing the real 22, when the FO says "dat wierd with no lights" and the Captain says "yeah." That's not proof, but it's the first point at which reality differed from his mental model, and it's the first point a comment is made.

Another framing issue was their delight that they had a very simple clearance that couldn't get "any easier that that", lessening vigilence more.

But there is still the factor of the wrong airport diagram, which is still wrong. ( http://www.naco.faa.gov/d-tpp/0701/00697AD.PDF for those who don't have charts.) The taxiway they should have been using, just west of Alpha-7, is not shown. (it's visible in the photo on wikipedia, at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comair_Flight_5191 )

Here's one possible scenario for a different type of framing. The crew understood that A7 was going to be blocked, and got the news that the next best taxiway was in use. Whoever told them that (suppose) meant the new one, the one not shown. They looked at their charts and figured that must mean Alpha-6. They expect an intersection with no lights, no pavement markings, no signage, and four possible ways to go. They expect to see across from them 2 concrete taxiways and, to their extreme left, runway 22, which they expect to be 150 feet wide and have no lights. There is no other spot on that diagram with two concrete taxiways across from them.

But there is a place in reality with two concrete taxiways and a 150 foot wide unlit runway to their extreme left, which is where they really were.
They didn't know about the new taxiway, and they may not have realized that runway 22 was actually 150 feet wide (with only 75 usable).

So, again, nothing seemed out of place, and the decision was "really easy" - taxi to the unlit runway intersection and take the extreme left 150 foot wide runway - "impossible" to make a mistake.

It would be valuable to know what combination of barricades and signage was visible from their gate to the taxiway they took.
This discussion doesn't argue that the flight crew didn't commit errors, which they clearly did. The purpose of a safety review of this kind is not to assess legal liability, but to look for intervention points where this same kind of error could be prevented in the future.

The scenario I describe above is a perfect case where the worst possible error can occur even in a situation that the participants view as on in which an error would be impossible. (This is why operating rooms have "time outs" before surgery begins now.)

In this scenario (even if something different happened in Lexington), the tower or ground crew or briefers are working, literally, on a different map of the world than the pilots. Phrases could occur, such as "the taxiway is closed, use the next one" are rich in undetected ambiguity. Is taxiway A-7 closed its entire length, or just half way down it? Is "the next one" A-6, as shown on the flight crew's official FAA airport diagram, or is it the brand new taxiway not shown on any diagram? This phrase is not in the transcript - but we are missing the conversation where this was discussed prior to the CVR's 30 minute recording.

It could have happened, is the point. More precisely, things LIKE IT could happen in the future in different circumstances: conversational partners have different mental maps and don't realize it, and carry on what looks like an unambiguous conversation to both parties, but with totally different meaning. Framed in that context, everything that follows makes perfect sense, and even satisfies multiple cross-checks for being correct. Those in that frame say "It's impossible to get this wrong." The tower, seeing only one runway lit, could say "It's impossible to get this wrong." Vigilance is never triggered by the unfolding events on either side. The mental frame is so strong that the First Officer brought the Captain into his world as well. People are focusing on data that support their model, not looking for anything that might challenge the model - at least, not until midway through the takeoff roll.

This is, in this case, an error that following the standard protocols and procedures correctly would have detected. On the other hand, the hundreds of other check list items distracted from this one, so adding more procedures and protocols is not a guaranteed good thing. The First Officer was head down, working in the cockpit, not attending to taxiing because he was working all the other preflight checklist items.

Oh, and one more "system" factor that also would have changed the outcome entirely. The airport has a slight hill in the middle of it, so that the far end of the runways are not visible from the near end, but are out of sight over the hillcrest. The visibility is reported by ATIS ALPHA to be 8 miles. If it's correct that the crew believed the lights were just out at the near end, but turned on at the far end of the runway they sought, and the airport had been entirely flat, they would have seen at a glance that their model didn't fit. In fact, if they had seen the end of the runway even with lights on, they would have seen at a glance that it was not the longer runway.
Reviewing system factors, any one of which might have changed the outcome:
* the airport had a hill in the middle of it.
* Runway 26 was 150 feet wide, but shown on the airport diagram as 75 feet wide.
* The lights were out at the takeoff end of runway 22 for something like 30 minutes, the same window of time as when the First Officer arrived friday night and noted the situation.
* The airport diagram did not correspond to reality, lacking the extra runway. The airport diagrams that are current are still not updated. The small versions of the airport diagrams on the instrument procedure plates make it look like there is a closed runway that comes all the way down to runway 26, marked by an "X", even though the larger diagram shows there is a gap (from the one marked with several "x" flags.)
* There is at least one possible confusion of route to the takeoff point that the diagram discrepancy allows, in which a sharp left turn onto a 150-foot wide runway at the end of the taxiing made perfect and unambiguous sense.
* Only the pilot in the left hand seat could steer the nosewheel steering, which separated the pilot in command (the first officer) from the activity that was done incorrectly by the senior Captain in the left-hand seat.
* Unquestioned cultural convention demands that the higher ranking officer sit on the left side, even though it would make more sense in this aircraft to have the pilot in command sit on that side.
* The tower was understaffed, and the lone occupant was (correctly) busy with other traffic at the crucial few seconds when he otherwise might have idly watched flight 5191 taxi into position and noted the error. It wasn't the tower responsibility to do that, but it could have occured and caught the problem.
* The only person who noticed the error, apparently, a ramp worker, had no way to communicate by radio to the aircraft and his attempt to run to the runway and wave down the plane did not succeed.
* The aircraft was not equipped with the $18,000 piece of equipment that would have automatically detected the runway error and alerted the crew, possibly because the airline was in bankruptcy proceedings.
* The crew seemed to behave as if operating in violation of FAA regulations was something they were routinely expected to just do and shut up about - judging from the fact that they continued to attempt a takeoff from an unlit runway, even though the first officer sighed when he commented that the lights were out all over the place.

All of the above, while not "causal" in some senses of the word, are also factors that, if they were changed, would have changed the outcome or very likely changed the outcome of this flight. They may not alter the legal assignment of liability and "blame" for the outcome, but they should illuminate intervention points for preventing similar events in the future.


technorati tags:, , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 19, 2007

Kennedy will ask FDA to regulate smoking




The New York Times reports that Ted Kennedy will introduce legislation to have the FDA regulate tobacco.



Here's an excerpt:

WASHINGTON, Jan. 18 — A Harvard study concluding that cigarette makers have for years deliberately increased nicotine levels in cigarettes to make them more addictive led to renewed calls Thursday for greater federal oversight of the industry.

Senator Edward M. Kennedy , the Massachusetts Democrat who is now chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, promised to reintroduce within weeks a bill that would allow the Food and Drug Administration to regulate cigarettes.

Mr. Kennedy’s bill passed the Senate in 2004 but failed in the House. With Democrats now in control of both houses, public health advocates said they had new hope that the legislation — debated for more than a decade — could pass.


On that general subject, here are some great short video clips on MySpace with dark humor about smoking:

Jay Leno on Saddam Hussein and the tobacco industry

And remember to wash your hands!

When that guy across from you asks "Do you mind if I smoke?"

(photo credit: sage )

technorati tags:, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Wednesday, January 17, 2007