Saturday, February 27, 2010

Social media and implications for work and education

 The millenial generation (Generation Y / "digital natives")  has arrived, with their tools,  and this has profound implications for education and the nature of the workplace.

Introduction:

Goleman and others have written about "social intelligence" or "group intelligence." [cite]   I want to look at a single more directly observable impact of this infrastructure on the nature of "one's own work" or what it means to be "a worker."      That then has implications for how we should be socializing, training, and educating these people.



The new generation of people and their tools

Wikipedia:
Characteristics of the generation vary by region, depending on social and economic conditions. However, it is generally marked by an increased use and familiarity with communications, media, and digital technologies. 
 With them they bring "social media" -- bi-directional web-2 initially, such as Facebook (tm),  then PDA/"cell-phone" enabled technologies = Twitter (tw),  "texting",  real-time clients to web-2 applications (google maps, web log posts from a phone, etc.)

The trend is clear, and huge:   faster communication (measured in seconds or less),  more reliable infrastructure, more widely-deployed access ("wi-fi hot-spots"),  higher bandwidth (youTube(tm) video or small-screen television live),   far wider active user-base and user-literacy [close to 100% of this generation, cite Pew...], and a greater willingness to be a social-being, with documents, mail, photos, preferences, and details of one's life immediately visible and searchable over the web by anyone from anywhere.

Furthermore, the latest trend [cite?] is to "always-on" connection,  where people simply live with their communications device 24/7,  and may exchange several or even hundreds of messages per hour, often multiplexing and being actively involved in multiple simultaneous conversations in different compartmented windows.

This has profound implications for education and the nature of the workplace.

Goleman and others have written about "social intelligence" or "group intelligence."   I want to look at a single more directly observable impact of this infrastructure on the nature of "one's own work" or what it means to be "a worker."      That then has implications for how we should be socializing, training, and educating these people.


Pair-programming in computing

[ details about the nature and amazing effectiveness of pair-programming, personal experiences.  cites]


Safety, reliability, quality, and economics of pair-programming

[ huge benefit, cites]


Theoretical basis for this situation

[ literature on team-based decision models;   aperture-synthesis in astronomy, etc.]



The big question - chair-turning consultation

On the one hand, people can in many settings, from universities to hospitals to most service businesses,  be always-connected to each other. Such connections provide a way for real-time, very short-term, immediate collaboration, equivalent to spinning in one's chair and asking one's office mate a question.

 On the other hand, the quantity of information in any field is increasing faster than any human can keep up with, as well as changing and being updated too rapidly to track.    There is no way to know everything, or even to be sure anything you "know" is still the current best-wisdom or current policy.  We can be certain of only one thing -- our mental picture of things, in particular and general,  has gaps, and has out-dated fragments that we haven't yet realized are outdated.

Many studies [ critical cites ] show that consultation while making decisions may appear, in the very short run to slow things down, but in terms of its astounding impact on the quality of the decisions, in the medium to long term dramatically speeds things up by reducing or eliminating rework caused by bad mental models, bad data, "guessing", or a "good-enough" attitude that would not be supportable if working along side a second person who was watching.
All of this says that people SHOULD be working this way, openly, in constant contact and short-term consultation about anything they are uncertain about, and even (or especially) things they feel certain about.
As various wags including Donald Rumsfield have pointed out, what causes our defeats is "the things we don't know that we don't know, or things we know that aren't so."

I had the experience of managing a team of sophisticated programmers working on a mission-critical, life-safety medical system.    It was still a challenge to get people to work with each other and to immediately seek consultation when they weren't sure about something, rather than "punting" or "guessing" or "covering up" the weak spots in their own work.

The reason for this was clear -- these people had been raised in an educational system that stressed that they should be "doing their own work."       Despite clueless instructors assigning "group work" to equally clueless students, who hated it,   when it got down to real grades,  what mattered was "your own work."  On an exam that really mattered,  you were rewarded for "doing your own work" and failed in disgrace if you "cheated" by consulting with others about something you were unsure of.

Then, thrown into the workplace,  after a decade or two of such competitive, fragmenting, corrosive, education, these people have trouble "working as a team" and seeking help when they need it, and not covering up in shame anything they are not certain about, so they "look better."

College and university faculty are given 6 years to achieve tenure, during which time the total emphasis is on doing their own work.   Then,   they are supposed to help teach ways to deal with "interdisciplinary teams."

The new models of work and education

A worker (and a person) should be seen as someone who is plugged into "the cloud",  who has the experience, attitudes, and technological savvy and tools to be able to ask for and get advice about anything in a few seconds, or look up and evaluate web-based data about facts, policies, or status of projects in a few moments with sufficient ease that they do it when they should with no big deal about it.

When a worker, or programmer, or analyst, or nurse, or doctor, or nurses-aide runs into a situation they are unsure about, or feel they should consult on, it should be fast and easy for them to do so, it should be habitual for them to do so, and they should be encouraged to do so and rewarded to do so, in public.

It should be like washing hands -- you should be seen by the patient doing it, because it's the right thing to do. It should not be something done secretly, furtively, with some guilt or shame in the back room -- or worse, not done when it should have been because there was no standard way to do so, or because someone was watching.

This is a complete reversal of our culture and educational standards.

It is also a trend that appears, to me, to be unstoppable.   There is little question that decisions made by constant consultation are better, safer, more-reliable and more cost-effective than other decisions.  There are far fewer disasters caused by ignorance or isolated islands of mis-information.

Those who do so will have better results, better bottom lines, etc. than those who don't -- once we are past the white-water turbulence of work and educational infrastructures that punish people for acting this way.

Our educational experience, by this model and in this light, should be more one of socialization to work this way, and getting used to the tools and practices of instant consulting,  evaluating and resolving conflicting viewpoints and data obtained over the web,  etc.

Our exams should be much harder, to the point of realistic, in terms of the types of problems asked and the time-frame in which an answer is expected -- but should be open-book, open-notes, open cell-phone, open-pda,  with unlimited options of calling friends or experts for advice.

What matters that the individual student be able to do is to swim in that ocean easily.  It does not matter that they be a storehouse of facts,  because facts become quickly stale.   Things they use a lot will become familiar, and things they never use will have no time wasted on them.

The concept of "mentoring" or "parenting" or what a college-degree would focus more on pair-wise traveling into that ocean and helping the student become familiar with what to do and how to do it to become a functioning and valued member of "the cloud", both giving help and getting it on a daily, hourly, minute by minute basis.

Such "cloud-enabled" people, who knew how to know their own limits, would be vastly more employable and re-employable in different fields as times changed, because their skill-base is largely independent of the particular field they are working in.

Business owners and managers in general could care less whether an employee "does his own work" or consults with others or experts, so long as the work gets done, rapidly, correctly the first time.

Counter-forces

Aside from centuries of legacy momentum in the opposite direction, and all the problems of paradigm-shifts,  an additional roadblock is evident in the area of power and redistribution of power.

In classic organizations, knowledge is power. Compartmentalization and fragmentation and competition between workers to "look good" is the classic Machiavellian method of keeping the lords balancing each other out, so none of them ever gets strong enough to challenge the Prince or King.

The new cloud-enabled group consciousness and comparing notes will, in fact, allow workers the ability to "get organized", with all that means to those who abuse, exploit, or lead-with-falsehood.   Such groups may not even articulate or realize the reasons for their gut-based aversion to social media, but this doesn't stop the vengeance and venom with which this social-media is treated as a threat to their power.

Wrapped in language of "efficiency" and "not wasting company time with gossip" and "protecting corporate secrets",   many consulting companies specialize, today, in helping management shut down, snuff out, and totally suppress the use of social media in the workplace.

Such is typical of any paradigm shift.  This is by no means a "self-working" transition, and many small efforts to change will be shot down, shut down,  with intense punitive action far beyond what would seem called for.

Anyone "pushing" these new technologies and social media should be prepared to be treated as a heretic, trouble-maker, labor-organizer,  etc.,   and to trigger the most intense organizational "immune response" that can be delivered to cleanse the system of something it recognizes as "not me."

Employees who consult widely and regularly with a wide range of advisors will not just "think outside the box", they will simply have no "box" anymore.  The social media gets rid of the "box" entirely.

They will not only question legacy policies, and management decisions, they will show up with an armful of supporting documentation and, worse (to management) supporters.  

For this to work,  management has to transition as well to an open-style, where it is not THEIR job to "be right" but their job to "ask the right questions".  Literature abounds these days on such leadership styles. It should be used. [cites go here]

If the United States Army,  one of the most hierarchical and mission-oriented organizations in the world,  is going this direction,  there must be no problem in it interfering with accomplishing the mission -- in fact, it must be viewed as helping accomplish the mission.

And, in my opinion, it is invaluable at getting out of the mess we're in and the boxed-in legacy mis-thinking and wrong mental-models that hold us back.

Three white-papers I wrote are directly related to this topic:


Disaster Preparedness Tools for Public Health staff and Civilians  [ MS Word Document,  on use of social media for making dyadic-pairs for working in high-stress unstructured disaster situations.]

Wade

On resistance to "social media"

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/26/military-announces-new-social-media-policy/

February 26, 2010, 5:29 pm

Military Announces New Social Media Policy

Many months behind schedule, the Department of Defense on Friday issued a new policy that, on the surface, seems likely to expand access to popular social networking sites like YouTube, Facebook and Twitter by troops using military computers. ...

The development is considered a step forward by advocates of social networking in the military. Those advocates have complained for years that local commanders, sometimes for vague or arbitrary reasons, have shut down personal blogs or restricted access to social networking sites that an increasing number of troops use to maintain contact with friends and families. A growing number of deployed units have also begun using Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and other networking sites to share photographs, release official information and disseminate newsletters.

US army and social media

February 26, 2010, 5:29 pm

Military Announces New Social Media Policy

Many months behind schedule, the Department of Defense on Friday issued a new policy that, on the surface, seems likely to expand access to popular social networking sites like YouTube, Facebook and Twitter by troops using military computers.

The new policy, which can be found here, says that the default policy of the department will be to allow access to social networking sites from the military’s non-classified computer network, known by its acronym, NIPRNET (for Non-classified Internet Protocol Router Network.)
...
A growing number of deployed units have also begun using Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and other networking sites to share photographs, release official information and disseminate newsletters.
...
“This directive recognizes the importance of balancing appropriate security measures while maximizing the capabilities afforded by 21st Century Internet tools,” said Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III in a statement.
...
Lindy Kyzer, who advices the Army’s Chief of Public Affairs on social media issues, said that while the new policy does leave much discretion in the hands of local commanders, it also opens up access to social networking in several significant ways.
...

An interesting note, Price Floyd, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, broke the news of the policy announcement on his Twitter feed, not via the traditional route of a press release.

US Army and twitter

http://twitter.com/USArmy

Leadership in the US Army of the future - concepts

This is from: www.army.mil 

"The official home page of the US Army".

 

Dempsey talks TRADOC future, leader development at AUSA

Feb 25, 2010
By Carroll Kim (TRADOC Public Affairs)

Gen Dempsey AUSA 02-25-2010

Photo credit Sgt. Angelica Golindano


Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, commanding general of Training and Doctrine Command, gives a speech during the Winter Symposium for the Association of the United States Army in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on Feb. 25, 2010. The speech was on TRADOC's perspective on the Army's need to adapt and decentralize while retaining the fundamentals that have succeeded throughout the Army's history.
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (Feb. 25, 2010) -- Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, commander of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, delivered remarks on leader and concept development during the Association of the United States Army Winter Symposium and Exposition here today.

Dempsey began by explaining the conditions of the battlefield and its ramifications on the force and leader development.

"If you think about what was going on ... in the late 19th century, that was an age of discovery and science and how systems fit together and the Industrial Age was affecting the social fabric and so forth," he said.

"Systems are interdependent. And in their interdependence, if you want to keep up with the systems, then you have to evolve at least as fast as the system. And if you want to get ahead of the system, you have to evolve at least twice as fast."

A way that TRADOC has been focusing on these concerns is through the Army Capstone Concept, published in December. The Capstone Concept addresses the conditions of the battlefield and how the Army is evolving to meet those demands through technology.

"It causes [leaders] to reconsider, rethink and challenge the assumptions upon which previous capstone concepts were made," he said. "Some of the assumptions we've made about technology have just not been realized because adversaries, or potential adversaries, understand what it takes to deliver those first."

Dempsey continued, "They've decentralized ... they use the network and they've proliferated the technology. They live among the population. Which means that you can't gain the kind of knowledge you think you can from a distance, and deal with it exclusively through precision."

In order to combat decentralization, the Army has also had to decentralize and provide more decision-making power into the lower ranks.

"We've done it remarkably well and for the most part, invisibly. There are implications to that decentralization. If you're on a path to build the network that affects echelons above [the brigade combat team], now you find yourself in a situation where what you really want is a network optimized at echelons below BCT."

However, decentralization has also been met with challenges, but Dempsey believes that systems have to be able to adapt to new audiences, situations and needs.

"Those kinds of challenges clearer to us today after the challenges of the past eight years, but it also means that though you should, in reaction to the changes in the world, decentralize, you also better recognize that at some point, you may have to have the ability to reaggregate those resources."

Dempsey also cited changes in leader development because of the different roles of Soldiers provided by full-spectrum operations.

"We've conceded that a leader must be grounded in not only tactics, techniques and procedures of force-on-force, but also in integrating his capabilities with other capabilities in a battle space that's increasingly crowded and increasingly transparent. So now we choose the term 'mission command' because we think it sends the right message on what we're about."

As decision-making abilities move down the ranks, Dempsey reinforced that junior leaders need to be empowered with orders that have a balance of guidance and room for the junior leader to critically think and apply their skills to develop the situation.

"We used to sit and think that the best information came from the top down, but this document implies that the best information comes from the bottom up. And if it does, you have to prepare young people to deliver it and you have to prepare them to prevail in it."

Dempsey assured a balance between preparing for future operations and maintaining a professional ethos will continue to be achieved through TRADOC schools.

"I'm worried about a drift in our fundamentals," he said. "We will not allow that to happen. So as we hurry helter-skelter we will never forget the fact that there are things that are fundamental to our profession."

Concluding his remarks, Dempsey took a look at the Army's role in national security in a quickly changing world.

"We've talked about an environment where competitiveness is the norm. We're in a competitive security environment. The dimension in which we have to prevail is the competitive learning environment because if we prevail here, we can make the changes and adaptations," he said.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

On the Tea Party

Ann Arbor, MI
February 18th, 2010
6:38 am
So, the battle cry is "Anarchists, unite!" ?

A different framework is that the problem is not that coordinated groups of people exist, but that such groups as they grow and age tend to become depressingly blind, inefficient, arrogant, ineffective, amoral, immoral, self-serving, and corrupt.

If you view that as a fact of life, smaller is better, fine. Discard the car and we'll all walk.  If you view this as a design flaw, like a stuck gas pedal, and one that could be fixed, that changes everything.  Fix the car so we can all go much farther than we can walk.

Humans are individually not very reliable, but these days much is known about how to build highly reliable systems out of unreliable components.

We have very sophisticated theory and tools in "control system engineering" about "checks and balances", regulatory feedback-loops, stability, responsiveness, etc. See for example "Feedback Control of Dynamic Systems" by Franklin, 5th edition.   All kinds of cars, planes, and equipment is built using that stuff. It works.

"It has a demon, blow it up!" is a pretty primitive approach to problem solving. Why not use the technology we have to design and model large human organizations that might actually function correctly?

Or at least use it to simulate and model proposed changes and see whether, under broad assumptions, the changed model would perform any better than the current model.

The problem is almost certainly that it's not breaking on any given part, it's breaking "between the parts" on a system level. It's not the pieces that are wrong, but the way the pieces relate to each other that's broken.

It's like airplanes. A plane is a collection of parts, each one being too heavy to fly. The power of the plane is in how the parts work together, not in any one magic "flying" part that the others ride on.

It's not right to seek a leader who can fly, and it's not right to abandon the idea of large groups, corporations, governments, etc. in favor of us all learning how to jump higher as the best we'll ever do.

The structure CAN be made to fly.  We HAVE the tools to do that. Now is the wrong time to quit.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Govenment "auto-braking" - as rampant short-term greed prevails

February 17, 2010
New York Times
Excerpts from the article on the "gridlock" nature of the problem,   leaving out the part about debt.
The photo is from an amazing collection of photos of Detroit, on Flickr, by "Detroitderek Photography".







I've pondered how to teach "systems thinking" as a whole, but one specific example is brought to mind by the article below -- some very basic facts about flying a plane.

Most people seem to believe that if you want a plane to go "up",  you would pull back on the control yoke and point the plane "up".
That isn't actually true.

If you pull back on the controls,   it is true that for a very brief time, the plane climb a little by consuming forward speed (and slowing down).  BUT -- if you continue to hold the controls back, as the plane slows more and more,  it will start shuddering, and,having lost flying speed,  start falling to the ground. If you insist on pointing the plane up even more at that point, you will crash.  Period.

There is no free lunch.  If you want the plane to climb for real, consistently, over time, and stay up,  you need to use the engine via the throttle.  You need to provide power.   You don't need to raise the nose of the plane at all -- just add power and you will climb.

There are amazing parallels in thinking here in politicians who discovered that plundering our nation's hard-won resources and spending them and calling the rise in "GDP" income, things appeared to be going "up".    Right now, we're at the "shuddering" and "losing flying speed" stage.

If short-term greed isn't replaced by hard work, as with the airplane,  there is only one foreseeable outcome.

People need to get their noses out of the air, individually and collectively. "Me first, Me now, only Me" is not a survivable strategy, or national policy, or cultural norm we should even tolerate, let alone praise when it has a short-term benefit at an even larger long-term cost.

This is a 1st grader type of perceptual error,  akin to a dog with his leash around a tree who can't reach his food dish and isn't willing to walk away from the food back to get unwrapped around the tree.   Pulling harder and harder is not the right answer.

The question is how to teach that perception, to about 6 billion people,  in under two years.   Our engine is the collection of virtues we once respected:   honesty, hard work, integrity, compassion, perseverance, hope.  They made the country great, and abandoning them is making the country sink.      In the very short run, turning away from them has a short-term visible gain,   but there is always a longer-term, significantly larger loss that comes with it.

So, the more we "win" the "behinder we get."   There is no sequence of such short-term gains that will get us to prosperity and economic health.    We need to walk AWAY from the food of short-term gain, back to the tree and get our leash unstuck, and recover "flying speed" before the wings stop doing their magical thing of producing lift and simply turn into heavy weights.

A plane has been described as a collection of parts, any one of which, by itself, would simply fall out of the sky.   This is true for the nation as well.   It doesn't fly because this part is "better than" that part -- it flies because the parts WORK TOGETHER.      If you remove the "working together" part, all you have left is a bunch of rocks in the sky, that will, duh,  fall down.

Party Gridlock in Washington Feeds New Fear of a Debt Crisis


WASHINGTON — Senator Evan Bayh’s comments this week about a dysfunctional Congress reflected a complaint being directed at Washington with increasing frequency, and there is broad agreement among critics about Exhibit A: The unwillingness of the two parties to compromise...


Yet rarely has the political system seemed more polarized and less able to solve big problems that involve trust, tough choices and little short-term gain. The main urgency for both parties seems to be about pinning blame on the other, before November’s elections, ...

Mr. Bayh, the centrist Democrat from Indiana, lodged his complaint about excessive partisanship and Congressional gridlock on Monday by way of explaining his decision not to seek re-election.

“I used to think it would take a global financial crisis to get both parties to the table, but we just had one,” said G. William Hoagland, who was a fiscal policy adviser to Senate Republican leaders and a witness to past bipartisan budget summits. “These days I wonder if this country is even governable.”

Sensing political advantage, Republicans are resisting President Obama’s call for a bipartisan commission ...

“There isn’t a single sitting member of Congress — not one — that doesn’t know exactly where we’re headed,” Mr. Simpson said.... “And to use the politics of fear and division and hate on each other — we are at a point right now where it doesn’t make a damn whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican if you’ve forgotten you’re an American.”

Elected Republicans, however, are under intense pressure from their party’s conservative base to oppose any tax increases — a line in the sand that dims any prospects for bipartisan cooperation....


But anger about big deficits has stoked the populism roiling politics, and Republicans as well as some conservative Democrats want to cut spending right now as a way of addressing perceptions among voters that government has gotten too big, too intrusive and too profligate.

Many analysts say the president and Congress could send a strong signal to global markets by agreeing this year to a package of both long-term tax increases and spending reductions...

As debt rises, so do interest costs; by 2014, at a projected $516 billion, they will exceed the budget for annual appropriations for domestic programs. The government will be competing with the private sector for credit, forcing interest rates higher and imperiling future prosperity.

Lesser financial and fiscal crises have brought the two parties together to compromise on tough choices about taxes and spending.  .. Those bipartisan deals were done during times of divided government, when one party had the White House and the other controlled at least one chamber of Congress, giving each side some governing responsibility to find solutions. Now, with Democrats controlling the White House and Congress, the parties have less incentive to work together.

Republicans today see opposition as a way back to power in November, and their party is more ideologically antitax than in the past, especially now that it is courting the Tea Party movement. Conservative activists so oppose compromise of any sort that several lawmakers have drawn primary challengers for working with Democrats.

Because the worst of the fiscal problem remains years away and therefore somewhat hypothetical to most people, there is also not the same incentive to act immediately that drove, for example, the 1983 deal, when Social Security was facing an imminent crisis.

More than Mr. Obama could have imagined, the situation now tests his promise to break Washington’s gridlock and to lead in making “the hard choices.”

Yet politicians’ failure to reduce deficits has long reflected voters’ opposition to the necessary steps.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Comment on Kristoff - physiology of politics (NY Times 2-14-2010)

Your article says "“What research like ours may help with is in figuring out how to construct an argument in a way that is going to meaningfully connect with those on the other side,” Dr. Smith said."

I think you've fallen into the trap of thinking that logical arguments are what shape perceptions, instead of vice-versa. That may be somewhat true for academics, but I don't think it's true for most people, who are more in the "Some things you have to believe to see" camp.

Don't fall into the psychological trap of thinking that most people are like the people you hang around with. They're not. They might as well be a different species.  The type of logical discussion taught in the academy is not how those other people operate.  In fact, to them logic is unpleasant and irrelevant.  That is not going to change before the next election, or go away because it means your whole campaign strategy needs to be rethought from the ground up.

The rest of the USA population does not admire academics and wish they had PhDs too.  Get past that error in the model.  What your eyes and the daily news tells you is, in fact true - There is NOT a shared value among the general population that education and logic are either important or desired traits. This is hard to accept for academics who are immersed in a world in which those are universal values.

Be pragmatic. Accept empirical data. Count the votes.  A campaign based on "facts" and "reasoning" is doomed to fail before it begins.  If you can't accept that, let someone else drive.

Someone said once "Man is not a rational animal - he is a rationalizing animal." This is worth some serious pondering.

Put another way -- as you probably have observed but simply cannot accept, there is NO ordering of the "dots" (facts) that will be "connected" in their brains to make a persuasive, perception-altering "case" or "argument." In fact, there is macho pride in who can dismiss the largest fact and keep on trucking. It is not about facts, and it can NEVER be won on the basis of facts and logical arguments.

I think what is at work is more of a flock or swarm peripheral vision effect, where they don't trust their own eyes or judgment, but they DO subliminally perceive and implicitly trust which way the herd or swarm is apparently moving. What counts is "impressions" of attitudes, from as many apparently different sides at once, over and over and over.

No one could make a logical argument that Saddam Hussein was behind the 9/11 attack, and yet over half the American populace believed that (or perceived that to be what everyone thought) on the day we attacked. In this game, however much stress it causes academics, facts are simply irrelevant. Sheer volume of impressions of what "everyone thinks" are all that matter.

Of course, to round that out, a tacit understanding that it is "bad" or traitorous or antisocial to even consider or look at any input from the "other side" helps keep the percentage of supportive impressions high enough to keep the lock in place.

So, in that model of "how things work", volume matters -- volume in terms of number of impressions, and volume in terms of decibels. Facts have negative value. Appeal to facts gets the mental door slammed with disgust at "damn elites trying to make me feel stupid."

It's a sad and depression model, but I submit to those who do work on empirical facts that this model is a pretty good fit for what we see going on around us. I recommend reading "Thank you for smoking" to get a short course in how such flim-flam is applied in practice, since the readership of this column surely reads for information.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thank_You_for_Smoking_(novel)

The sober and sad fact is that there are apparently more US voters who watch TV than read (or think) as a basis for their opinions. And at this point they are bonding over shared disdain for elites (aka education, logic, facts, algebra, calculus, big words, complex ideas, etc.)

Back to the point. There is NO set of facts that will crack that lock on their vote. Abandon that approach. Follow the Republican lead and treat American voters as mindless flock animals who sustain on non-verbal peripheral vision clues about where everyone else is and is going.

Sigh.

Friday, February 12, 2010

What we all got wrong

What We All Got Wrong


Moving to Darwin was a hard paradigm shift, and now moving beyond Darwin will similarly be attacked and wrongly stereotyped as regression, and lumped as fanaticism and enemy action. It is as if the US Congress's protocol ("never yield on anything") is controlling our models instead of rational and civil discussion.

What I see is brash decrees of what is "obvious" on both sides, by people who can't even analyze or predict the simplest multi-level feedback loop.

There are battles between "the genes do it" or "the animals do it" or "the species do it" and very little interest in the far more likely reality -- they all do it, and simultaneously, bidirectionally, filled with feedback loops on multiple scales of time and space.

"Science" has great power for open-loop systems and equations, but almost no tools or reliable insights on complex closed-loop systems.

What is clear is that humans are somewhere in the middle of a hierarchy of living control systems where cells have some life of their own, organs have some life of their own, individual humans have some life of their own, aggregate human clusters such as corporations and nations and cultures have some life of their own, etc. It's a mess computationally and totally unjustifiable to "simplify" it by tossing out that aspect of it.


[ Added note by author:   As we were taught at Johns Hopkins, it is becoming clear that the impact of "psychosocial" factors on what has classically been called "biomedical health" is at least as large, if not larger, than "biological" factors.  As we open our eyes to such pathways, they are starting to show up everywhere. How can anyone say that policy decisions at the national level about health care funding do not, ultimately, alter the "fitness" landscape and inflluence, perhaps heavily, who lives, who dies, and who has children?

Or take the state of the "national economy" and "the stock market", which are aggregate entities with a very powerful influence on the odds that human cells will be exposed to "unusual" levels of alcohol these days, let alone the immune-suppressing impact of "depression" on multiple spatial scales. It's all tangled together, bidirectionally.  It goes upwards as well:  a single fatigued, depressed , and drunk person, attempting to do something stupid on an airplane, can change the entire behavior of an entire country. These are very real intra-life-form interactions that cross many orders of magnitudes in scale.  You can't ignore them because of some legacy political decision about what constitutes "alive" or "life". ]

On top of that, the increasingly dominant organized life-form on the planet, aka "corporations", can not only replicate and divide and reproduce, they can also "merge".

And, to boot, they can modify their internal operations and structure, in close to real-time, based not just on the past, but on observations about the present and even predictions of future conditions.

If you believe, as I do, in some kind of hierarchical, scale-invariant symmetry and invariance of the mathematics of key control-loops, the implication is clear -- EVERY level of life has some capacity to adapt its own internal structure and what it propagates based on current events, not just past discrete, acute "reproductive" events.

Given the empirical behavior of the parts of the world we can see around us every day, and read about in the paper, and our almost total inability to model complex feedback systems, I can't see any "scientific" justification for boldly ruling out such aspects of life based on their political and religious ramifications.

Life appears to be self-catalyzing, and there is as much downward pressure on the direction of the planet from meta-organisms (e.g. corporations, religions, terrorists) as there is upwards pressure from genetics and emergence.

In the US a corporation has announced plans, on top of it's constitutional right of free speech, to run for office of the President.

Seems like the definition of "alive" needs some tweaking, even before the computer network sits up and asks for the vote as well.

And, if downward pressure on evolution, to force it in certain directions, is an aspect of the nature of LIFE (and it is in the only case we know about), then, in the limit, regardless how unpopular, it is not credible to discount all reports, however distorted, of "direction" on evolution around us, and, "from above."

Take where we are and add a billion years.

It seems the question shouldn't be is there intervention in evolution from "above", but what the nature of that intervention, today, is.

Maybe I've missed something in the last few decades, but I'm unaware that science has calibrated and reliable equipment to measure even, say, CIA intervention in country X, let alone much larger- scale, longer-term and perhaps less-obvious tilts to the evolutionary playing field.